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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,621
  • Mar 20, 2007 2:23pm Mar 20, 2007 2:23pm
1 pip positive in my short

Gotta love this SOB pair.
  • #8,622
  • Mar 20, 2007 2:25pm Mar 20, 2007 2:25pm
out of my euro longs for decent profit. still feel like going long though, so I'll look for a dip before reloading. Holding cable shorts, hanging around break even level for now, will add to shorts if it goes back in the 9620 area
  • #8,623
  • Mar 20, 2007 3:02pm Mar 20, 2007 3:02pm
There's a talk that tomorrow's BOE may come out 6-3 for no-hike, instead of forecast (and previous) 7-2. If this happens, market is likely to start pricing in a likely rate hike for April - yeah that's how it works - the market prices the freaking hike they "think" is gonna happen to move the market 200 pips down when the no-hike (for April) comes... Big losses here until I got it.

6-3 + FOMC no hike or rate cut and Cable will stop at 9800 this week - the guy long at 9913 will recover his hope and will feel strong to ask his ex-wife for another chance.

7-2 + FOMC no hike, as expected may be take us to grab stops at high 96s, I would guess...

I'm waiting to dump this short I have ASAP and will be out until news tomorrow... Dumb entry this short I got after a hugely profitable day.
  • #8,624
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:42pm Mar 20, 2007 5:42pm
This price action - no retracement - and holding above 9600 got me really confused...

Simply don't know if I leave buy limits or buy stops OR if a leave sell limits or sell stops AND where to place them....

Guess I'm going through the night with no order at all until London open / BOE minutes...

Thoughts?
  • #8,625
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:07pm Mar 20, 2007 6:07pm
Look back at February 14th/15th, you can see there the same.
  • #8,626
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:16pm Mar 20, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting katzenhai2
Look back at February 14th/15th, you can see there the same.
I see then a big up day following by big down day.

So far today was big up. But just can't see tomorrows bar just yet.

More often than not up days are followed by more up days and vice versa.

Why do you see it being down on wednesday?
  • #8,627
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:31pm Mar 20, 2007 6:31pm
Quoting katzenhai2
Look back at February 14th/15th, you can see there the same.
History by history Jan 12th - 22nd are also in my mind...

Big down to 92s evolving to 99s

Still clueless here, I'm sorry...
  • #8,628
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:32pm Mar 20, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting cesarnc
There's a talk that tomorrow's BOE may come out 6-3 for no-hike, instead of forecast (and previous) 7-2. If this happens, market is likely to start pricing in a likely rate hike for April - yeah that's how it works - the market prices the freaking hike they "think" is gonna happen to move the market 200 pips down when the no-hike (for April) comes... Big losses here until I got it.

6-3 + FOMC no hike or rate cut and Cable will stop at 9800 this week - the guy long at 9913 will recover his hope and will feel strong to ask his ex-wife for another chance.

7-2 + FOMC no hike, as expected may be take us to grab stops at high 96s, I would guess...

I'm waiting to dump this short I have ASAP and will be out until news tomorrow... Dumb entry this short I got after a hugely profitable day.

I got hammered by this whole voting thing a while back and I think I will sit this one out. Hopefully, my retrace will happen and I can bank a few pips...
  • #8,629
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:39pm Mar 20, 2007 6:39pm
Quoting cesarnc
History by history Jan 12th - 22nd are also in my mind...

Big down to 92s evolving to 99s

Still clueless here, I'm sorry...
Furthermore, the move to 99s was propped by the surprising rate hike. Market didn't have the time to price it in beforehand.

BOE voting 6-3 (possible) and FOMC no-hike (forecast) tomorrow are good enough to start the pricing of a likely GB rate hike for April (Q2 start). Maybe 99s will not be in the cards, but surely 92s will be left for story tellers.

Note also that UK inflation is at annoying levels already.

Better step aside and wait for the fundamentals to give the direction... Not a single position or entry set-ups throughout the Asian session
  • #8,630
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:47pm Mar 20, 2007 6:47pm
Quote
Why do you see it being down on wednesday?
Or down on Thursday?
Well, there is this 100% fibo/resistance above, on daily around 9650. It will stop there and retrace. I don't think its the end of the overall uptrend. But even on Jan 15th it retraced back 120 pips. Such a move is what I meant.
In GBPUSD you never can see the top or the bottom of a trend. If you could, this pair would never reach it.

Sounds not very technical or fundamental, but thats me. I like to trade the market on how I 'sense' it.
  • #8,631
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:59pm Mar 20, 2007 6:59pm
Quoting katzenhai2
Or down on Thursday?
Well, there is this 100% fibo/resistance above, on daily around 9650. It will stop there and retrace. I don't think its the end of the overall uptrend. But even on Jan 15th it retraced back 120 pips. Such a move is what I meant.
I give you that one... 4hr is extremely overbought and Daily is overbought enough for a good move downwards.

Market may be holding high ahead of BOE Minutes, which if comes out 7-2 or more may wipe any hopes of a hate hike shortly and that may easily become a 150-200 pips down.


Quote
Sounds not very technical or fundamental, but thats me. I like to trade the market on how I 'sense' it.
That is what made me think twice. I make better trades when I "sense" than when I "reason". Like on Friday, when I was almost empaled here for "sensing" that Cable was about to go up.

Thanks for bringing it up. Now I'm still clueless but equally alert for both direction.
  • #8,632
  • Mar 20, 2007 7:39pm Mar 20, 2007 7:39pm
Quoting katzenhai2
Or down on Thursday?
Well, there is this 100% fibo/resistance above, on daily around 9650. It will stop there and retrace. I don't think its the end of the overall uptrend. But even on Jan 15th it retraced back 120 pips. Such a move is what I meant.
In GBPUSD you never can see the top or the bottom of a trend. If you could, this pair would never reach it.

Sounds not very technical or fundamental, but thats me. I like to trade the market on how I 'sense' it.
I happen to believe it will go down too.

Down trendline drawn from 2/2/07 to 2/27/07 extended till now and the 4 day trading range of last higher high on 2/27/07 should contain up move for now. As well as no serious pullback of 5 day move up from 1.9212 bottom.
  • #8,633
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:09pm Mar 20, 2007 8:09pm
I played a bit with EWs, something against the boredom at the market.
Ignored some minuette waves, but I'm relatively new to counting EWs.
http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/1361/15min3wt1.jpg
  • #8,634
  • Mar 20, 2007 9:54pm Mar 20, 2007 9:54pm
I don't normally look at the 240min chart but this is how I see EW progressing:
Attached Image
  • #8,635
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:43pm Mar 20, 2007 10:43pm
Everyone has their own count tra-la-la. Welcome to EW.

Edit: Oh btw, looking at m5 chart, isn't cable forming a very tight triangle atm?
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #8,636
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:50pm Mar 20, 2007 10:50pm
The cable is snoozing as the Asian market is on holiday....
  • #8,637
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:59pm Mar 20, 2007 10:59pm
Quoting Traex
Everyone has their own count tra-la-la. Welcome to EW.

Edit: Oh btw, looking at m5 chart, isn't cable forming a very tight triangle atm?
Why the W,X,Y and XX's?
  • #8,638
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:06pm Mar 20, 2007 11:06pm
Quoting SunTrader
Why the W,X,Y and XX's?
Triple Zig-zag (W-X-Y-XX-Z) formation. Full of ABCs inside. The Z might be a full 5-wave tho. Recent example is GBP/JPY from 241.XX top on Jan to 220.XX bottom this month. I might be wrong tho, cable might have its own mind. We can only wait and see.
Tra-X
  • #8,639
  • Mar 21, 2007 12:11am Mar 21, 2007 12:11am
Sterling Outlook
03:59 GMT March 20 Cable opened in Asia at 1.9610/15 and there has been little obvious interest in a very quiet 1.9607/22 trading range. GBP/JPY, which has provided most of the volatility in recent weeks, traded quietly around 2.3000 all morning and EUR/GBP has consolidated its overnight losses sitting quietly around .6790 for the session. For many months now we have seen sovereign names buying in good amounts on any major dips in cable and off loading a portion thereof on significant rallies. Many expected to see such selling at 1.9550 but it did not materialize and shorts had to scramble to cover. There is some talk that offers have reemerged around the Fibonacci resistance level at 1.9635 but we have no confirmation of this. EUR/GBP fell sharply last night but further steep losses are not expected with buyers tipped around .6740 and sellers now at .6820. GBP/JPY is likely to be supported in the next few weeks by some very large Uridashi issuances out of Japan. Release of minutes from the last MPC meeting should give a good indication of whether a rate rise is due. (SL)
  • #8,640
  • Mar 21, 2007 12:17am Mar 21, 2007 12:17am
Date: 2007/03/20Time: 20:52 (GMT +2)Ticker: GBPLast: 1.9616Pivot: 1.95751st sup.1.95752nd sup.1.95553rd sup.1.9541st res.1.96352nd res.1.967453rd res.1.96935Title: GBP/USD intraday: bullish above 1.9575Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot : 1.9575

Our preference : Long positions above 1.9575 with targets @ 1.9635 & 1.96745 in extension.

Alternative scenario : Below 1.9575 look for further downside with 1.9555 & 1.954 as targets.

Comment : the 1.9575 support area maintains a positive bias.
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0320205017.GIF
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