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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,581
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:18am Mar 20, 2007 10:18am
market is putting me to sleep....must stay awake

it's the middle of the day almost... but I'm so sleepy

yawnnnn

I think this a ploy to get me to walk away from trading again today.

will fight the urge to sleep
  • #8,582
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:23am Mar 20, 2007 10:23am
Quoting leelee75k
any thoughts on what closed Japanese markets tomorrow will do for the Euro or Gbp?
Well, if it is anything like when US is market closed.. the Us will take a dive, others will get strong... but really ???
  • #8,583
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:25am Mar 20, 2007 10:25am
Quoting leelee75k
market is putting me to sleep....must stay awake

it's the middle of the day almost... but I'm so sleepy

yawnnnn

I think this a ploy to get me to walk away from trading again today.

will fight the urge to sleep
I have buy limits at 9540 and 9521, awaiting retracement. No position to be taken above 9600. Guess breaching 9600 today would be by being dragged by GJ, what if occurs, it's likely to be at the late NYC.

I'd like it to retrace first to push hard up tomorrow, if not by the BOE minutes, than by the FOMC. And call it a week on Wednesday.
  • #8,584
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:37am Mar 20, 2007 10:37am
Gotta love those nice clean long term charts! Thanks for sharing...
  • #8,585
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:55am Mar 20, 2007 10:55am
Quoting cesarnc
I have buy limits at 9540 and 9521, awaiting retracement. No position to be taken above 9600. Guess breaching 9600 today would be by being dragged by GJ, what if occurs, it's likely to be at the late NYC.

I'd like it to retrace first to push hard up tomorrow, if not by the BOE minutes, than by the FOMC. And call it a week on Wednesday.
I am beginning to wonder if it will retrace that far. Seems to be good support around 55/60 area.
  • #8,586
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:20am Mar 20, 2007 11:20am
Quoting leelee75k
market is putting me to sleep....must stay awake

it's the middle of the day almost... but I'm so sleepy

yawnnnn

I think this a ploy to get me to walk away from trading again today.

will fight the urge to sleep
LOL Eh Leelee, do 4-hr-bars w/ fractal indications and be able to set alarm clock for each (or next) 4-hr snooze! That's how I made it thru last nite and still get in on the GBPUSD action even whilst the nervy Econ moments! Email me and I tell you what software does well like this w/ proof (walk forward testing. Don't want to type it here 'cause that be advertising).

jerry
  • #8,587
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:26am Mar 20, 2007 11:26am
Quoting pwegner
I am beginning to wonder if it will retrace that far. Seems to be good support around 55/60 area.
Same here... GJ already on the move up by very, very nice NYSE performance for the second day.

[US STOCK MARKET UPDATE] The market is extending Mon's rally, led by the Nasdaq, up 0.5% and above 2400 which acted as s/t resistance. The Dow is ahead 0.3%, with most major sectors higher. Financials are leading the way again, followed by tech and consumer stocks. A rise in housing starts helped sentiment although permits continued to fall. While market breadth is looking better as up-stocks top losers, volume remains on the light side, suggesting some buying caution among big funds until the Fed's rate meeting is over on Weds afternoon
  • #8,588
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:36am Mar 20, 2007 11:36am
Quoting pwegner
I am beginning to wonder if it will retrace that far. Seems to be good support around 55/60 area.
BTW, Cable retracing to 38% fib in a 100+pip day is a classic. As they say "tradition holds wisdom" I'll keep the buy limit at this levels. 80% of the time it retraces to 50%.

That gives us 9538 and 9517.

Also, BOE minutes tomorrow going for majority for no-hike may be a cut for the gains. Market is going to trade this eventually. Either by taking profit from today's move or pushing it higher to chase stops and take profit in the skies before this event. That's why I decided not to "auto-short" at lows 9600 today.
  • #8,589
  • Edited 11:47am Mar 20, 2007 11:36am | Edited 11:47am
My outlook for short term (only technical, because I don't understand fundamental):
I can see a divergence on 4hour chart in stochastic and price retraced back to a former resistance trendline, which is now support. I "think" it will go higher now until tomorrow frankfurt/london open. Then it will fall dramatically lower. Saw that several times ago. But thats short term folks, that does not implicit a downtrend coming.

EW speaking, this looks like a wave 3 up. I expect something around 100% fibo from the asian downfall on March 05th.
4hour chart, watch stochastic below:
http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/5981/15min3dr2.gif
  • #8,590
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:45am Mar 20, 2007 11:45am
Short at 9605 with 20 pip stop and limit at 9565.
  • #8,591
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:48am Mar 20, 2007 11:48am
Quoting cesarnc
BTW, Cable retracing to 38% fib in a 100+pip day is a classic. As they say "tradition holds wisdom" I'll keep the buy limit at this levels. 80% of the time it retraces to 50%.

That gives us 9538 and 9517.

Also, BOE minutes tomorrow going for majority for no-hike may be a cut for the gains. Market is going to trade this eventually. Either by taking profit from today's move or pushing it higher to chase stops and take profit in the skies before this event. That's why I decided not to "auto-short" at lows 9600 today.
I agree, I hope tradition holds this time also.
  • #8,592
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:57am Mar 20, 2007 11:57am
I did fall asleep
just woke up and saw my order was just filled for a short at 9605.
  • #8,593
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:08pm Mar 20, 2007 12:08pm
Quoting pwegner
I agree, I hope tradition holds this time also.
Tradition will hold. That's a fact.

Problem is that we may haven't seen the freaking top yet!

Last remarkable figure I could imagine as good resistance now would be around 9635-9645 (Feb26 to Mar1st).... Gonna let a sell limit there just in case.

No position taken as of now.
  • #8,594
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:11pm Mar 20, 2007 12:11pm
keepin' on keepin' on! now +140 since yesterday morn.

jerry
  • #8,595
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:13pm Mar 20, 2007 12:13pm
u are right cesar, but we might go and test the 555 1 more time before we go north, because this just looks to crazy to go only north...
its just money
  • #8,596
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:18pm Mar 20, 2007 12:18pm
[CABLE] has run into good sized selling above 1.9600, contacts citing tech based offers loaded ahead of a 1.9610 trendline on daily charts. With the Usd holding generally firm ahead of the FOMC and likely to come under more short paring pressure ahead of the announcement this chartpoint may serve to prompt a setback for the pair, but yield arguments in the wake of today's firm UK Feb CPI data (Short-Stg almost pricing in a Sep hike again) suggests a dip bidding strategy will reward. Russian names have broadened out their Sterling buying activities from Gbp/Jpy to Eur/Gbp and Gbp/Chf as well as the pair, bringing Eur/Gbp in particular towards stops reported to lie under the 0.6775-80 region. Weds sees the release of the Feb MPC minutes, with a 7-2 vote for no change expected. Anything above 2 dissenters is likely to see an Apr hike begin to be priced in.

Anyone can see this "9610 trendline"? 'cause I cannot
  • #8,597
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:19pm Mar 20, 2007 12:19pm
hmm, interesting, tradition or is it trend, hadn't thought of that way. Guess since most usual Traders-impacting + Econannouncement chart motion is traditional I can see the point, point too is that Trends are 1-2 month apart and are the non-traditional thing [to use your terminology! LOL :-) everything in between the non-traditional then becomes as you say......"the traditional"] (in my case....."to method catch" the Trending non-traditional)

jerry
  • #8,598
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:23pm Mar 20, 2007 12:23pm
i am short form 9614 for 20 pips
SPEED SPEED SPEED
  • #8,599
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:26pm Mar 20, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting de123
u are right cesar, but we might go and test the 555 1 more time before we go north, because this just looks to crazy to go only north...
de123,
if trend made sense many could get in on it from its inception, and most don't, it only happens. If made sense, the most getting in on it would exhaust it out before it got to be trend, instead its an unconcious piling on top of each other.

jerry
  • #8,600
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:27pm Mar 20, 2007 12:27pm
No sooner has the 1.9610 trendline in [CABLE] been highlighted, than bidding has forced a break, in all probability tripping a goodly sized build of tech based stops in the move. Given the improvement in Sterling sentiment on the back of firm UK Feb CPI eventual tests on next offers expected around 1.9635 (61.8% retracement of the fall off the year's high) and then the 1.9680 mid-late Feb highs are likely to pan out. A trip of the 0.6775-80 stops in Eur/Gbp and stops expected above 2.3800 in Gbp/Chf would serve to further improve the tone.
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