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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,561
  • Mar 20, 2007 7:40am Mar 20, 2007 7:40am
110 pips......so far (as USD Housing nudged it further wee-bit), quoting myself from yesterday a6 10:00:

"I tend to agree w/ bullish starting from 0500 (beginning of bar time, EST) 4-hr-bar early this morn, but if its not Trend this time it be a fizzle-out (puny gain or very minor loss). This from my 7 months paper-testing up to now that has proven out. (not that I'm any guru, just a beginner's stab at "explanation"). In fact I've started 1-mini based on this. (that's all the size my beginner's account can take with 80 pip stop-loss! LOL) [did I use the word "beginner's" enough? LOL]

jerry"

It may be long from over folks, as these can be 1-4 days long. Waited 2 months for this puppy live$$ (as paper-test is much easier world!), its most likely it.
  • #8,562
  • Mar 20, 2007 7:53am Mar 20, 2007 7:53am
Quoting Batch
110 pips......so far (as USD Housing nudged it further wee-bit), quoting myself from yesterday a6 10:00:

"I tend to agree w/ bullish starting from 0500 (beginning of bar time, EST) 4-hr-bar early this morn, but if its not Trend this time it be a fizzle-out (puny gain or very minor loss). This from my 7 months paper-testing up to now that has proven out. (not that I'm any guru, just a beginner's stab at "explanation"). In fact I've started 1-mini based on this. (that's all the size my beginner's account can take with 80 pip stop-loss! LOL) [did I use the word "beginner's" enough? LOL]

jerry"

It may be long from over folks, as these can be 1-4 days long. Waited 2 months for this puppy live$$ (as paper-test is much easier world!), its most likely it.
Way to go. I agree on the long side for at least tomorrow. But right now I'd like to buy at a better price, at 38% and/or 50% fibo from today's move - we may haven't seen the top yet.

I'll short for scalping only, no target and pulling at the first smell of bulls in the vicinity.
  • #8,563
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:00am Mar 20, 2007 8:00am
With housing numbers like this I would be very surprised if fomc lowers interest. I don't think they would have lower it this time even if the housing numbers were bad.
  • #8,564
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:04am Mar 20, 2007 8:04am
Zhou says china to cut small piece of reserves for new forex management agency.
  • #8,565
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:10am Mar 20, 2007 8:10am
Quoting pwegner
Zhou says china to cut small piece of reserves for new forex management agency.
The [DOLLAR] has dropped further in response to some comments from China's central bank Gov [ZHOU], who says that China will not accumulate more foreign reserves, and will cut a small amount of current reserves for the formulation of a new forex management agency.


I was noticing Yen receiving a boost a few minutes ago... Was wondering why....
  • #8,566
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:14am Mar 20, 2007 8:14am
Quoting leelee75k
nice work cesar

GBPUSD offers found at 19570-75 level and more at 19600-05 area. Bids around 19505-10 area.

either I will buy on dips or sell at 9580-9600 area. currently holding a Euro long and a Yen long... go figure
Just took profit out of some annoying Euro longs I was holding sicne y'day. May go further up above 3300, but this freaking pair almos drove me nuts here...

Nothing on Yen now... It's being weird since Y'day, too...
  • #8,567
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:15am Mar 20, 2007 8:15am
I was long usd/yen from early am. Thank god for stops!!
still holding euro longs and I shorted gbp upto 9603 probably tp soon
  • #8,568
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:25am Mar 20, 2007 8:25am
Thx Cesarnc,

I hadn't seen retracements when in a trend during paper-test of 7 months, so all indications are this is trend. It could be small trend too of course, with pull-back eventually (I do 4-hr bars -- Fractal indications, but that's only wee part of overall "secret" to get to bottom of newborn trends. Only 50 pips size DDs and 2000 pips equivalent gain per 100 pips lose, just GBPUSD thank youy (!), that's why can do 2X speed w/ 80 pip stop-loss, although I "begin" live$$ proceedings with just 1 mini on a Thou account 'til completely comfortable, "able to leap tall buildings (3 times double an account in 5-10 months, thats 800% whence still "all clear" to do 2X.) in a single bound"........"its a Thuuuuper Duck!" Ha-ha-ha! LOL. What is all your performance stats Cesarnc? [W;L, Gain to lose, DDs] )

Jerry
  • #8,569
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:37am Mar 20, 2007 8:37am
Quoting Batch
Thx Cesarnc,

I hadn't seen retracements when in a trend during paper-test of 7 months, so all indications are this is trend. It could be small trend too of course, with pull-back eventually (I do 4-hr bars -- Fractal indications, but that's only wee part of overall "secret" to get to bottom of newborn trends. Only 50 pips size DDs and 2000 pips equivalent gain per 100 pips lose, just GBPUSD thank youy (!), that's why can do 2X speed w/ 80 pip stop-loss, although I "begin" live$$ proceedings with just 1 mini on a Thou account 'til completely comfortable, "able to leap tall buildings (3 times double an account in 5-10 months, thats 800% whence still "all clear" to do 2X.) in a single bound"........"its a Thuuuuper Duck!" Ha-ha-ha! LOL. What is all your performance stats Cesarnc? [W;L, Gain to lose, DDs] )

Jerry
I don't really care about too many statistics. I'm trading small lots and never cut them loosing. When on profit and/or at support levels I go on adding. By the time I am in a critical level for money management purposes, I already have a fat profit to back me up. Then I start taking profit...

I trade with 1 EMA, 1 or 2 fibs, support and resistances and market sentiment (Stock market, fundamentals, rate statements, so forth).

I became a profitable trading when I cleaned by charts and started paying attention on what was going on across the board, instead of keeping the eye on several techis in just one pair.
  • #8,570
  • Edited 8:45am Mar 20, 2007 8:40am | Edited 8:45am
got out of my gbp shorts, decent profit
holding euro longs only looking to either buy gbp lower or sell above 96 again.

oh and rumors of more bad news on the mortgage front for the US
  • #8,571
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:42am Mar 20, 2007 8:42am
Whwe what a retrace... think the bulls got tired. will this thing keep its strenght or do you think more retrace?
  • #8,572
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:47am Mar 20, 2007 8:47am
Quoting positivepips
Whwe what a retrace... think the bulls got tired. will this thing keep its strenght or do you think more retrace?
Barely retraced to 23% yet. I'm on hold awaiting a possible double top or retest of 9590-9600 area.

Missed that top at 9605... my computer froze at 9590 and when started it up again, price was already back to 9590
  • #8,573
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:50am Mar 20, 2007 8:50am
I'm looking for further movement down too, 9540-50's at least, but before that I'm looking to reload shorts between 9590-9605 area.
  • #8,574
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:51am Mar 20, 2007 8:51am
[USD/JPY], already weighed by a recovery by the Jpy on the crosses following the PBoC reports, has come under additional pressure following rumours a large west coast based US bank is to announce it has sub-prime lending problems. Bids are expected around 117 (Japanese importers) with stops under a minor retracement target at 116.90. Next bids are expected around 155.30 in Eur/Jpy and around 228.80 in Gbp/Jpy. The Jpy is likely to retain a bid tone until the PBoC's intentions become clearer, though the Bank is unlikely to do anything which would cause serious disruption in the markets - such as not putting any more of its reserves in the Usd, which appeared to be the market's original fear.

Stay tuned for another earthquake.
  • #8,575
  • Mar 20, 2007 9:02am Mar 20, 2007 9:02am
I fell asleep in my chair and awoke to Pound teetering at .9600. I took a short position as I felt Pound was a little overbought and Whammo! Got a nice little pip harvest. I should sleep while I am trading a little more often.
  • #8,576
  • Mar 20, 2007 9:04am Mar 20, 2007 9:04am
Hey Cesarnc,
How about a shot of your trading screen. I would love to see your setup. I find your posts and predictions quite interesting and very useful.
  • #8,577
  • Mar 20, 2007 9:17am Mar 20, 2007 9:17am
Quoting IN-N-OUT
Hey Cesarnc,
How about a shot of your trading screen. I would love to see your setup. I find your posts and predictions quite interesting and very useful.
1- Main chart is where I monitor 15M - 1H with some EMAs and oscillators. bottom right I keep another small chart to monitor another pair of interest at the moment.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...nc/screen1.jpg

2- Another broker, where I keep 4 pairs: GU, GJ, EU, UJ. This is the account I trade the most.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...nc/screen2.jpg

3- Big clean chart to monitor any pair in the long term (>4h). Only 250EMA, fibs and trendlines.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...nc/screen3.jpg

I wouldn't call it "predictions". There are sometimes when price action makes it clear what is going on. Like when it was bouncing several times at 9280. It was a clear sign that support was heavy and there wouldn't be another way but up... That plus overall market sentiment and we already have our small percentage above 50/50 gambling.
  • #8,578
  • Mar 20, 2007 9:19am Mar 20, 2007 9:19am
Quoting cesarnc
I don't really care about too many statistics. I'm trading small lots and never cut them loosing. When on profit and/or at support levels I go on adding. By the time I am in a critical level for money management purposes, I already have a fat profit to back me up. Then I start taking profit...

I trade with 1 EMA, 1 or 2 fibs, support and resistances and market sentiment (Stock market, fundamentals, rate statements, so forth).

I became a profitable trading when I cleaned by charts and started paying attention on what was going on across the board, instead of keeping the eye on several techis in just one pair.
I respect your approach & proceedings Cesarnc. But if you have your method down cold and keep eyeballs on the pips not the dollars gained, I'd think ongoingly increasing your lots is no prob, no?
jb
  • #8,579
  • Mar 20, 2007 9:25am Mar 20, 2007 9:25am
any thoughts on what closed Japanese markets tomorrow will do for the Euro or Gbp?
  • #8,580
  • Edited 10:00am Mar 20, 2007 9:34am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting Batch
I respect your approach & proceedings Cesarnc. But if you have your method down cold and keep eyeballs on the pips not the dollars gained, I'd think ongoingly increasing your lots is no prob, no?
jb
March has been a hard month to trade. I've seen guys calling shots based on methods and tech B.S. just to see their account being rapped furiously in the hour after.

I was working in a strategy on February with very good results in the back test. Just doesn't work for almost 30 days in a row.

Market now is still under heavy influence of the carry trades, either by the higher yield apetite and risk aversion. Look at your GBPJPY chart today and you'll see it. So it's being all about looking across the board (stocks, oil, gold, treasure, you name it) and making decision.

Since this is what the big money is doing, this is what I'll do. Never heard Soros and Buffet talking about fibos and EWs. Place a damn trade and take a damn profit
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