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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #110,981
  • Jan 13, 2009 5:58am Jan 13, 2009 5:58am
Quoting Abuawad
looking for 1.4469 and more deep
Fundamentally, it would not surprise me to see this level taken out and Cable to hit new multi-year lows, although perhaps not in this wave down, given the substantial fall witnessed since Friday.

The data this morning regarding the widening trade balance was quite disturbing from the UK's perspective, as it shows the huge fall seen in sterling over the past year has yet to translate into any improvement to our external financing position in respect to global trade. This implies that a further exchange rate adjustment is needed, and we have not yet reached a point of equilibrium.
  • #110,982
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:12am Jan 13, 2009 6:12am
This is trending down beautifully. I can see this testing the 1.45 level and then bouncing off that to retrace back up.
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Probability Professor
  • #110,983
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:24am Jan 13, 2009 6:24am
Quoting trader2160
Nice.I take it the demo is limited(unlike mt4 platforms)
No, it isn't an unlimited demo with MB Trading Futures. If you don't log in for a certain amount of time it will delete the account. However, if you do log in consistently, it doesn't delete it. I've had a demo account with them for 8 months in the past.
Probability Professor
  • #110,984
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:26am Jan 13, 2009 6:26am
Quoting Galation
No, it isn't an unlimited demo with MB Trading Futures. If you don't log in for a certain amount of time it will delete the account. However, if you do log in consistently, it doesn't delete it. I've had a demo account with them for 8 months in the past.
I was asking about the ACM demo but thanks anyway.Youre with MB too?
  • #110,985
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:30am Jan 13, 2009 6:30am
Quoting Abuawad
looking for 1.4469 and more deep
I second that. The British economy is in a bad state, and I've already read somewhere that parity with the dollar is possible in 2009.
  • #110,986
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:31am Jan 13, 2009 6:31am
Quoting trader2160
I was asking about the ACM demo but thanks anyway.Youre with MB too?
I do have a live account with MB yes, and another live account with a different broker.
Probability Professor
  • #110,987
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:37am Jan 13, 2009 6:37am
GBPUSD is in key moment on H1 chart, testing previous support/resistance line and bottom line of the channel.

But on D1 looks like we're going to 1,4300...
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  • #110,988
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:39am Jan 13, 2009 6:39am
Quoting Yohay
I second that. The British economy is in a bad state, and I've already read somewhere that parity with the dollar is possible in 2009.
But so is the US economy, the eurozone, emerging markets....

Reading something somewhere doesn't somehow validate it as a possibility.
  • #110,989
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:43am Jan 13, 2009 6:43am
If the price does happen to break through 1.45, and hold below that line, my target would be the 1.4350 area.
Probability Professor
  • #110,990
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:56am Jan 13, 2009 6:56am
Can anyone tell me when the US session opens in GMT - that is in United Kingdom please?
mama
  • #110,991
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:58am Jan 13, 2009 6:58am
Quoting Mama007
Can anyone tell me when the US session opens in GMT - that is in United Kingdom please?
2 minutes to open
  • #110,992
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:02am Jan 13, 2009 7:02am
Quoting Mama007
Can anyone tell me when the US session opens in GMT - that is in United Kingdom please?
just click on clock located at forex factory main page and set your timezone
  • #110,993
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:06am Jan 13, 2009 7:06am
Quoting fifo
just click on clock located at forex factory main page and set your timezone

Thanks for that
mama
  • #110,994
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:12am Jan 13, 2009 7:12am
Problem is, UK economy is in horrendous state and the BOE still won't quite accept it.

The Fed has been practising the transparency of the totally screwed for some time.

The only historical reason to hold sterling was the yield. At savings rates lower than 1.5% why bother ? Particularly when it is likely they go lower, although the BOE refuses to admit this in an attempt to shore up the currency.
  • #110,995
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:16am Jan 13, 2009 7:16am
she's drunk
  • #110,996
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:21am Jan 13, 2009 7:21am
Quoting Mooser
Problem is, UK economy is in horrendous state and the BOE still won't quite accept it.

The Fed has been practising the transparency of the totally screwed for some time.

The only historical reason to hold sterling was the yield. At savings rates lower than 1.5% why bother ? Particularly when it is likely they go lower, although the BOE refuses to admit this in an attempt to shore up the currency.
The BOE is not, in my opinion, in a state of denial about the severity of the downturn. It must be understood they have to be mindful of the effect on sterling in the currency markets from excessive rate cuts, as the UK has a growing mountain of public debt that needs to be financed by foreigners.

If those foregin investors become significantly concerned about the value of their sterling demoinated investments, they will start to offload these assets, causing sterling to plummet further and de facto interest rates (yield on UK gilts) to soar - irrespective of where the official Bank rate sits. A weakening of sterling is both desirable and needed. However, a disorderly rout, where foreigners dump sterling assets en-masse, is something that should be avoided at all costs.

The Federal Reserve can afford to be a little more dovish on their interest rate policy, as foreign central banks have to hold dollars, but the same cannot be said about sterling. There are also many other factors supportive of the greenback that do not apply to sterling. This is why the MPC must tread carefully.
  • #110,997
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:28am Jan 13, 2009 7:28am
Good post Gammase.


Quoting gammase1
The BOE is not, in my opinion, in a state of denial about the severity of the downturn. They have to be mindful of the effect on sterling from excessive rate cuts, as the UK has a growing mountain of public debt that needs to be financed by foreigners.

If those foregin investors become significantly concerned about the value of their sterling demoinated investments, they will start to offload these assets, causing sterling to plummet further and de facto interest rates (yield on UK gilts) to soar - irrespective of where the official Bank rate...
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #110,998
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:28am Jan 13, 2009 7:28am
I hear you Gammase. I am surprised though at the divergence between the actual trade deficit and Mervyn King's view that the weakness in the pound would tame this. Can't believe he didn't know the figures when he made the statement in the last minutes.

Maybe I put it the wrong way. The BOE know EXACTLY how screwed the UK is, but are refusing to admit it in an attempt to shore up the currency.

I think this is why sterling is getting punished.
  • #110,999
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:37am Jan 13, 2009 7:37am
Not a good day for me so far..... I loaned about 70 pips to the market and missed almost all of this downmove waiting for retracement....1.4350 seems to be where everybody wants it.....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #111,000
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:38am Jan 13, 2009 7:38am
Quoting Infinity
Not a good day for me so far..... I loaned about 70 pips to the market and missed almost all of this downmove waiting for retracement....1.4350 seems to be where everybody wants it.....
I'm in the same boat brother! I'm currently long from 1.4550 though, we'll see how this holds up.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
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