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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,481
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:07am Mar 16, 2007 11:07am
Hey cesarnc,
That's an interesting chart. Would it be possible for you to explain exactly what it is called and how it works? Thank you very much.
  • #8,482
  • Edited 11:18am Mar 16, 2007 11:14am | Edited 11:18am
Quoting IN-N-OUT
Hey cesarnc,
That's an interesting chart. Would it be possible for you to explain exactly what it is called and how it works? Thank you very much.
It's a chart showing current open positions of EUR/USD of all Oanda broker's clients.

Upper left quadrant: Long positions entered below current price (in profit).
Upper right: Long positions entered above current price (in loss).
Lower left: Short positions entered below current price (in loss).
Lower right: Short positions entered above current price (in profit).

Edit: LOL I typed a wrong pair, should be the fiber.
Tra-X
  • #8,483
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:16am Mar 16, 2007 11:16am
Quoting IN-N-OUT
Hey cesarnc,
That's an interesting chart. Would it be possible for you to explain exactly what it is called and how it works? Thank you very much.
Go here

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...nsummary.shtml
  • #8,484
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:21am Mar 16, 2007 11:21am
Quoting katzenhai2
No, his chart shows EUR/USD.
Here is GBPUSD:
Yeah, mine was Euro's. I posted because I found it funny the amount of trades trying to short Euro at the top, never to succeed.

There's a lesson for us here.

The few people long below 3315 are the patient, disciplined and profitable traders.

The shorts/longs above 3315 are wackos or they know something others don't.

Now, the big fat percentage of shorts below 3315 are the future forex statistics... Get out of this area if you're there. Opportunity is gone. Don't let your cash go with it.

  • #8,485
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:32am Mar 16, 2007 11:32am
Quote
Get out of this area if you're there. Opportunity is gone. Don't let your cash go with it.
Depends on used risk and money management.
But yeah, you can see where the market will go if you have a look on these statistics because most traders lose. If you see massive people selling in a uptrend, go long.
  • #8,486
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:36am Mar 16, 2007 11:36am
Can someone take a look at this thread I made and maybe help me out a bit?Thanks!

Adel
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21709
fall down seven times, get up eight!
  • #8,487
  • Mar 16, 2007 2:05pm Mar 16, 2007 2:05pm
Cesarnc and Traex, thank you so much for sharing this info. It took me a couple of minutes to understand it, but "wow"! I cant tell you how many times I have been in the wrong quadrant. Thanks again for sharing - what a powerful tool!
  • #8,488
  • Mar 16, 2007 2:17pm Mar 16, 2007 2:17pm
Looks like many people are still holding on to their Pound Long positions in the "carry trade" scenario. What's the saying "it will come back" ? Am I missing something here?
Attached Image
  • #8,489
  • Mar 16, 2007 3:35pm Mar 16, 2007 3:35pm
I don't feel like I have a firm handle on the dynamic of the carry trade on the pound. Can someone make it easy for me?

Are more people selling the GBP/JPY and thereby making the GBP/USA go down as well? Why does the pound/dollar just because the pound/yen is sold?

Thanks!

Gary
  • #8,490
  • Mar 16, 2007 4:02pm Mar 16, 2007 4:02pm
Quoting IN-N-OUT
Looks like many people are still holding on to their Pound Long positions in the "carry trade" scenario. What's the saying "it will come back" ? Am I missing something here?
Carries are the pairs of the moment for quite sometime. Both Yen repatriation by the end of Japan's Fiscal Year and the dumping of long positions from risk averse investors due to the stocks shakeout caused majors/Yen to fall free.

However,

As uncertainties in the stock markets start vanishing, it is expected that apetite for higher risky assets (like carries) will recover, thus throwing majors/jpy back to the roof for the remaining of the year.

Stock market is not yet in confirmed recovery, as proved by recent sessions with shy volumes and gains and doubtful (or confusing) economic indicators. This is causing carries to range forcefully yet.

I wasn't at my office this afternoon (GMT) but I notice now that carries were dumped again, possibly due to positions exits ahead of the weekend and because NYSE fell today. Stock market was awaiting firm indicators during the week to cut the bulls lose. But indicators were overall confusing and less than enthusiastic again. The ghost of US economic slow down is still around the corner...

On Cable, I appreciated that the price retraced to today's 78% fib low / high without getting back below 9400. And Euro held above 3300. Those are indications that we may have more to the upside early next week.

I'll be watching Asian open on Sunday evening (GMT)trying to catch the market's sentiment. We may have another cheerful week open after this strong position exiting today

  • #8,491
  • Mar 17, 2007 5:30pm Mar 17, 2007 5:30pm
Cesarnc, When you said "more to the upside...", does it mean price will pass friday's highest high this coming monday? and the 1.9400 will be the lowest it could get?

1.9400 is friday's 76.4 fib, right?
  • #8,492
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:48am Mar 18, 2007 10:48am
Quoting sam1
Cesarnc, When you said "more to the upside...", does it mean price will pass friday's highest high this coming monday? and the 1.9400 will be the lowest it could get?

1.9400 is friday's 76.4 fib, right?
Well, "technically", not getting back bellow 9400 is a good sign to the upside. However, technicals per se don't move the market. Dollar selloff was the name of the game on Friday, when carries got calm a notch.

But everything will depend on what fundamentals and market sentiment will do about the market this week.

Furthermore, price rebounded right at the classic 4h 250EMA. Only good fundamentals (& market sentiment) are able to push the price through it, as I noticed before... Euro getting stronger may be the truck to drag Cable up.

Another failure at this EMA and we may easily go back to 9300 early this week, though...
  • #8,493
  • Mar 18, 2007 2:40pm Mar 18, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
Only good fundamentals (& market sentiment) are able to push the price through it, as I noticed before...
there might be one ...fresh buy BPM7...
its just money
  • #8,494
  • Mar 18, 2007 3:35pm Mar 18, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting de123
there might be one ...fresh buy BPM7...


Chance to maximize it via GJ, in this case?
  • #8,495
  • Mar 18, 2007 4:12pm Mar 18, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting cesarnc


Chance to maximize it via GJ, in this case?
Well as u wish, but if i would do the carries it would involved the nzd with apropriate timing,...maybe it would be nice to buy pounds and sell euros, since euro is in strong R area and pound in a strong S area...but only dailly charts confirmes the story & also 14500 or close to if holds is a good to target psiho number 1.500 one more time...eur/usd is at 1.33xy some profit taking is not out the chance and buying back below 1.3100....
its just money
  • #8,496
  • Mar 18, 2007 5:10pm Mar 18, 2007 5:10pm
China on the spot:

China Raises Rates to Cool Investment as Trade Surplus Widens
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- China, which raised interest rates for a third time in 11 months this weekend, is discovering that solving one of its two main economic problems makes the other one worse.

Full Story

Guess this was the reason for the gap on the Yen carries I got here starting 2100 GMT
  • #8,497
  • Mar 18, 2007 5:24pm Mar 18, 2007 5:24pm
This far I'm a buyer at GU 9324 / EU 3272. I was to let buy limits at 9376 and 3300, but with this China issue, I'd rather watch Asian session a little to see the reaction...

Europe and the dreaded Russian Yen buyers may show up by early Moscow screwing with the carries again.

All in all, I'm still to the upside, although no position taken. Buying above 9400 would be for scaping only. Awaiting good price to buy since the 4hr 250EMA is likely to hold again.

That's what I'm on to right now. May change within the hour, though.
  • #8,498
  • Mar 18, 2007 6:56pm Mar 18, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting cesarnc
Well, "technically", not getting back bellow 9400 is a good sign to the upside. However, technicals per se don't move the market. Dollar selloff was the name of the game on Friday, when carries got calm a notch.

But everything will depend on what fundamentals and market sentiment will do about the market this week.

Furthermore, price rebounded right at the classic 4h 250EMA. Only good fundamentals (& market sentiment) are able to push the price through it, as I noticed before... Euro getting stronger may be the truck to drag Cable up.

Another failure at this EMA and we may easily go back to 9300 early this week, though...
But where it stopped was the 4hr 200sma. I have backtraded your 250 ema and the only strength I have found is when it concurs with other accepted ma's. Is there some specific study for your 250 ema I can read? Always looking!

Tahnks
Brad
  • #8,499
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:30pm Mar 18, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting Bradone
But where it stopped was the 4hr 200sma. I have backtraded your 250 ema and the only strength I have found is when it concurs with other accepted ma's. Is there some specific study for your 250 ema I can read? Always looking!

Tahnks
Brad
Whatever.. I keep 250 EMA in all charts. Price bounces at this EMA from the 5M chart up. The higher the time frame the stronger.

I just don't keep looking at prices at the pip, EMA at the unit, fibos at the decimals. Too much brain consumption for so little cash. So 250/200 EMAs don't really matter imo.
  • #8,500
  • Mar 18, 2007 8:35pm Mar 18, 2007 8:35pm
9400 looking strong. Asian stocks rising are pushing carries up. I'm with buy limits at 9395 and 9360, buy stop at 9425 (Friday close), spread included. Euro at 3284 only.

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