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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,461
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:25am Mar 16, 2007 5:25am
Wow. Nice chart.
I don't count WXY because I find them too complex. Thats merely curve-fitting.
  • #8,462
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:32am Mar 16, 2007 5:32am
Quoting cesarnc
Good luck to all... Hope the nasty revisions not to show up today...

If forum freezes, see you hopefully at the other side of the 95ers.
Well, no revision so far but the usual B.S. Good CPI and bad Core CPI...
  • #8,463
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:34am Mar 16, 2007 5:34am
This subwave 3 has already or nearly finished now, prolly 1 more mini wave up left.

Cesarnc, core CPI is more important than CPI. But the result for core is same as expected.
Tra-X
  • #8,464
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:39am Mar 16, 2007 5:39am
Quoting Traex
This subwave 3 has already or nearly finished now, prolly 1 more mini wave up left.

Cesarnc, core CPI is more important than CPI. But the result for core is same as expected.
Core excludes food and energy, although energy is a big issue right now. Market is looking for confirmation of ecomonic slow down as they say. Those figures, cooked of not - don't throw a light in the subject.

Industrial production to come next.
  • #8,465
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:40am Mar 16, 2007 5:40am
US Feb core CPI has come in slightly below f/c (0.2% m/m vs f/cs of a 0.3% m/m outturn), with the y/y rate remaining stable at 2.7%. Note, though, that real earnings have fallen well below f/c at a 0.3% m/m fall compared to expectations of an unchanged reading. With the market concentrating on fears over a slowdown in the US, even core CPI remaining well above the Fed's 2.0% y/y comfort zone is unlikely to offer much of a prop. Eur/Usd faces a likely 1.3350 barrier, though a decent sized 1.3400 structure which expires today will receive good sized defense. Usd/Jpy bids are in place at 116.50.
  • #8,466
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:46am Mar 16, 2007 5:46am
Something to add.

DJ MARKET TALK: Talk Of EUR/USD Offers Building Above 1.3350

Fri Mar 16 07:04:00 2007
EDT

1104 GMT [Dow Jones] A UK bank trader hears talk of EUR/USD offers building
above 1.3350. The rate now trades at the day's high of 1.3339.
Tra-X
  • #8,467
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:46am Mar 16, 2007 5:46am
you are long on the usd/jpy?
  • #8,468
  • Mar 16, 2007 5:46am Mar 16, 2007 5:46am
Quoting Traex
Something to add.

DJ MARKET TALK: Talk Of EUR/USD Offers Building Above 1.3350

Fri Mar 16 07:04:00 2007
EDT

1104 GMT [Dow Jones] A UK bank trader hears talk of EUR/USD offers building
above 1.3350. The rate now trades at the day's high of 1.3339.
I got this:

Fears over the US economic outlook have led [EUR/USD] through what were expected to be regularly layered short dated barriers during the day. These were in relatively small size, but options contacts are now reporting a goodly sized (Eur 5.0mln payout) 1.3400 barrier is in place, which expires today and is thus likely to attract significant defense. Further short dated structures are also expected above there with expiries on Mon and Tues, the setting of expiries just ahead of significant events (Wed's FOMC) being a typical strategy.
  • #8,469
  • Mar 16, 2007 6:02am Mar 16, 2007 6:02am
I don't like what is going on. If Industrial Production come out as forecast, we're doomed to the 94s...

I'm out and watching only...

F'n fundies...
  • #8,470
  • Mar 16, 2007 6:22am Mar 16, 2007 6:22am
Funny is that USD-positive news are propping GJ instead of the dollar.

People getting back to carries as lower risks are being perceived
  • #8,471
  • Mar 16, 2007 6:51am Mar 16, 2007 6:51am
I think future contracts(expiring today) are pushing EUR/USD up therefore dragging GBP/USD. However once they expire I really don't know what is gonna happen. Anyone has an idea?
  • #8,472
  • Mar 16, 2007 6:57am Mar 16, 2007 6:57am
Quoting synopses
I think future contracts(expiring today) are pushing EUR/USD up therefore dragging GBP/USD. However once they expire I really don't know what is gonna happen. Anyone has an idea?
I'll long */USD in case bad consumer sentiment. Euro could go for 3380/3400 for stops.

I'll short Yen in case good consumer sentiment. GJ above 228.0 easily, as has shown in the last few hours.
  • #8,473
  • Mar 16, 2007 6:58am Mar 16, 2007 6:58am
If the consumer sentiment also comes Dollar positive(almost all data were USD positive yesterday and today except 2) and the pair does not drop, I really would like to know how they(whoever they are) hold this pair and EUR/USD at this level.
  • #8,474
  • Mar 16, 2007 7:04am Mar 16, 2007 7:04am
Quoting synopses
If the consumer sentiment also comes Dollar positive(almost all data were USD positive yesterday and today except 2) and the pair does not drop, I really would like to know how they(whoever they are) hold this pair and EUR/USD at this level.
Well, came bad and no move...

I'm giving some time to the upside than Ill pull my long from 9460 to call it a week.
  • #8,475
  • Mar 16, 2007 7:06am Mar 16, 2007 7:06am
Quoting cesarnc
Well, came bad and no move...

I'm giving some time to the upside than Ill pull my long from 9460 to call it a week.

seems it is true that rumors move the market not the facts
  • #8,476
  • Mar 16, 2007 7:09am Mar 16, 2007 7:09am
The [USD] is virtually unchanged across the board after the Prel University of Michigan sentiment came out broadly in line with forecasts at 88.8 (expectations centered on a 88.7 reading). Eur/Usd has failed to extend gains above the both came out reasonably firm, and with the absence of downside shocks in the last piece of data today, players could start to take profit as European play starts to wind up ahead of the weekend. Talk of 1.3350 optionality and heavy offers ahead will likely deter traders from attempting another rally now, with Usd/Yen also well contained on the downside at the key 116.50 support.

Just what I needed to call it a week...

  • #8,477
  • Mar 16, 2007 7:13am Mar 16, 2007 7:13am
Quoting cesarnc
The [USD] is virtually unchanged across the board after the Prel University of Michigan sentiment came out broadly in line with forecasts at 88.8 (expectations centered on a 88.7 reading). Eur/Usd has failed to extend gains above the both came out reasonably firm, and with the absence of downside shocks in the last piece of data today, players could start to take profit as European play starts to wind up ahead of the weekend. Talk of 1.3350 optionality and heavy offers ahead will likely deter traders from attempting another rally now, with Usd/Yen also well contained on the downside at the key 116.50 support.

Just what I needed to call it a week...


So the expectations for sentiment was 88.7? It was posted 90 on calendar.
  • #8,478
  • Mar 16, 2007 7:33am Mar 16, 2007 7:33am
Quoting synopses
So the expectations for sentiment was 88.7? It was posted 90 on calendar.
[OUTLOOK FOR U MICHIGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE] Mid-March consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan survey are due at 14gmt. Expectations center on a drop in the headline index, from 91.3 in to something in the 88.5-90.5 range.


  • #8,479
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:49am Mar 16, 2007 8:49am
hehehehehe.... trying to catch tops, fellas?



Gotta go.. Nice weekend everybody.
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  • #8,480
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:54am Mar 16, 2007 8:54am
Can somebody take a look at the thread I started in the New Members Q &A. Here is the link I really appreciate it...thanks in advance.
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21709
fall down seven times, get up eight!
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