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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #108,961
  • Jan 2, 2009 10:32am Jan 2, 2009 10:32am
Quoting Atondra
Since GBP/USD has recovered more than 100 pips from its lowest of 1.4376 i consider it a reversal and took a long post @ 1.5000
Just out of curiosity, why would you wait for it to go north over 100 pips before you enter long? The 1.4376 area coincides with the lows from the 29th, 30th, and 31st. My longs kicked in at 1.44 and TP at 1.45. There were buyers sitting at this level ready to buy. Right now, you in a limbo trade. She could go north, or go back to today's low. I'm considering this current level as a value building level for another push lower. I could be wrong, and I'm on the sides at the moment. Cover your trade and trade what you see.

Good luck on you trade!
EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #108,962
  • Jan 2, 2009 2:49pm Jan 2, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting eohater
Just out of curiosity, why would you wait for it to go north over 100 pips before you enter long? The 1.4376 area coincides with the lows from the 29th, 30th, and 31st. My longs kicked in at 1.44 and TP at 1.45. There were buyers sitting at this level ready to buy. Right now, you in a limbo trade. She could go north, or go back to today's low. I'm considering this current level as a value building level for another push lower. I could be wrong, and I'm on the sides at the moment. Cover your trade and trade what you see.

Good luck on you trade!
EO...
Well, the day is almost over and after I posted this, FF went down. But, as I wrote, she did fall back down, not to today's low, but she did fall below the 1.45 area. I took a short right after I posted this from 1.4525 and closed out at 1.4475. I'm done for the week. The start of the new year has been good! I hope everyone else did well today. Enjoy your weekend, party and get ready for next week.

Trade well everyone!
EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #108,963
  • Jan 2, 2009 3:01pm Jan 2, 2009 3:01pm
Quoting eohater
Just out of curiosity, why would you wait for it to go north over 100 pips before you enter long?
EO
Because that's what all the books and gurus teach. You gotta trade with the trend. Higher highs and higher lows indicate the market will go up, right?
  • #108,964
  • Jan 2, 2009 3:08pm Jan 2, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting nwsuccess
Because that's what all the books and gurus teach. You gotta trade with the trend. Higher highs and higher lows indicate the market will go up, right?
I bet you went long when I did at 1.44

For everyone else. I have a problem with the whole, the trend is your friend bullshit. I'll go long or short in any market. It's all about the entry.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #108,965
  • Jan 2, 2009 3:09pm Jan 2, 2009 3:09pm
Trading with the trend is great!... BUT.. you have to know what trends are happening on what timeframes.. and how they coincide... PA from there and your gold

The against trend trade of the day for me was a PA entry at 1.4420 area... nice.. very nice....

As far as a trend has reversed from amount of pips moved.... SCARY

Good moves today short and long... ended up not being a bad week.. looking forward to next week...

Quoting nwsuccess
Because that's what all the books and gurus teach. You gotta trade with the trend. Higher highs and higher lows indicate the market will go up, right?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #108,966
  • Edited 5:47pm Jan 2, 2009 5:33pm | Edited 5:47pm
The " going whit the trend" thing is good but... too simple, no enough exacte.

Up or Down, all we need to do is watch at witch fibo ratio from last move the cross is at now. Then we can know witch kind of pattern is in play.

Exemple: correction to 382 or 618 or 786 or 886, extension to 1.27 or 1.618 or 2.24, 2.618, 3.14 - ten we can know if a tree wave pattern ends after 3 x 1.27 etension, or that a gartley pattern is going on after a 786 or 886 correction.

Hope it helps some.

http://harmonictrader.com/harmonictraderpdf.htm


see here, you got 5 gartlet pattern in a row!! preatty easy to trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5BatinaRow.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #108,967
  • Jan 2, 2009 5:51pm Jan 2, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting Inzider
The " going whit the trend" thing is good but... too simple, no enough exacte.

Up or Down, all we need to do is watch at witch fibo ratio from last move the cross is at now. Then we can know witch kind of pattern is in play.

Exemple: correction to 382 or 618 or 786 or 886, extension to 1.27 or 1.618 or 2.24, 2.618, 3.14 - ten we can know if a tree wave pattern ends after 3 x 1.27 etension, or that a gartley pattern is going on after a 786 or 886 correction.

Hope it helps some.

http://harmonictrader.com/harmonictraderpdf.htm...
ouch.. i cant take the ride when the coast is bumpy. Had to skip it
  • #108,968
  • Jan 2, 2009 6:29pm Jan 2, 2009 6:29pm
To each his own.. we all work differently. I always like things as simple as possible. A couple ma's and price action ect... pay the bills.... and a bit more

My small mind can't handle much more and use it well

Side note: for those that have a broker that closes early.. G/U pushed up to 1.454 the last few minutes.


Quoting Inzider
The " going whit the trend" thing is good but... too simple, no enough exacte.

Up or Down, all we need to do is watch at witch fibo ratio from last move the cross is at now. Then we can know witch kind of pattern is in play.

Exemple: correction to 382 or 618 or 786 or 886, extension to 1.27 or 1.618 or 2.24, 2.618, 3.14 - ten we can know if a tree wave pattern ends after 3 x 1.27 etension, or that a gartley pattern is going on after a 786 or 886 correction.

Hope it helps some.

http://harmonictrader.com/harmonictraderpdf.htm


see...
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #108,969
  • Jan 3, 2009 2:39am Jan 3, 2009 2:39am
Quoting eohater
I bet you went long when I did at 1.44

For everyone else. I have a problem with the whole, the trend is your friend bullshit. I'll go long or short in any market. It's all about the entry.
I had an alert set but didn't wake up for it. That was a perfect setup, though. I agree, entries are key. Learn to time the entry and manage. There are lots of buying and selling opportunities or trend and countertrend trades. Like you, the problem I have is I hear so many people saying they'll start to consider buying after the market has gone up like 500 pips. Seriously?! And they wonder why they keep getting suckered into buying tops and selling into the hole.
  • #108,970
  • Jan 3, 2009 7:19am Jan 3, 2009 7:19am
Afternoon all. Been checking out this forum for the last few weeks and have learned a lot from you guys - thanks to everybody who takes the time to post on here !

I've got a quick question re the open on Sunday - does anybody have any views on where it might be given the spike up to 1.4550 ish in the last half hour on Friday? Does anybody think this up move will continue or is it likely to drop back a bit ?

Cheers

Dode
  • #108,971
  • Jan 3, 2009 7:35am Jan 3, 2009 7:35am
Quoting dode
Afternoon all. Been checking out this forum for the last few weeks and have learned a lot from you guys - thanks to everybody who takes the time to post on here !

I've got a quick question re the open on Sunday - does anybody have any views on where it might be given the spike up to 1.4550 ish in the last half hour on Friday? Does anybody think this up move will continue or is it likely to drop back a bit ?

Cheers

Dode
Hello Dode,

Right now, I am thinking of going long on break of prev day high or going short on break of prev day low. Or if price falls back to the midpoint of the prev day range and starts bouncing, I may go long from there too.

But all these will have to wait until the market opens next week.

Right?
  • #108,972
  • Jan 3, 2009 7:43am Jan 3, 2009 7:43am
Quoting eohater
I bet you went long when I did at 1.44

For everyone else. I have a problem with the whole, the trend is your friend bullshit. I'll go long or short in any market. It's all about the entry.
like this?
Attached Image
Patience is the keyword here...
  • #108,973
  • Jan 3, 2009 11:32am Jan 3, 2009 11:32am
The price is 1.4502 right now.
  • #108,974
  • Edited 7:27pm Jan 3, 2009 7:16pm | Edited 7:27pm
I think cable will go up while euro will go down or sideways.

my reasoning stems from EURGBP, which shows signs of reversal. On the daily 4 days ago we saw jump in volume and although price made new high it then pulled back and closed in the middle of the daily range, then the following day volume was also pretty high and although price closed higher it didnt manage to rise higher than the day before which indicates selling at the top. then you can see there was a sharp reversal which was done on relatively low volume indicating the there was little demand to support the price. Friday is abit ambiguous for me so next few day will confirm or disprove my observations.

as for GBPUSD i think on daily and weekly there is (tripple?) bullish divergence on almost any indicator where you can get divergences. Also weekly bar looks like a reversal bar for both GU and EG. And lastly 1.44 level seems to have alot of support and price fall were constanly slower ( on dailies) which i think indicates accumulation at those levels. So for the next maybe 2 weeks ( or 1 at least) we should see bullish movement on GU. And then probably into 1.3xxx territory down we go.

PS. Also on friday price went up at the end of the day on low volume which indicates marking up of the price and if we see gap up or rise in price on low volumes at the opening and asian session on Monday it will confirm bullish move.
  • #108,975
  • Jan 4, 2009 3:28am Jan 4, 2009 3:28am
Quoting lexazver
I think cable will go up while euro will go down or sideways.
As for GBPUSD i think on daily and weekly there is (tripple?) bullish divergence on almost any indicator where you can get divergences. Also weekly bar looks like a reversal bar for both GU and EG. And lastly 1.44 level seems to have alot of support and price fall were constanly slower ( on dailies) which i think indicates accumulation at those levels. So for the next maybe 2 weeks ( or 1 at least) we should see bullish movement on GU. And then probably into 1.3xxx territory down we go.

PS....
I guess you are right there. We'll see it on sunday then
  • #108,976
  • Jan 4, 2009 3:43am Jan 4, 2009 3:43am
GBP/USD's break of 1.4466 low last week suggests that medium term down trend has resumed. From a short term angle, initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 1.4776 minor resistance holds and further fall could be seen to long term support at 1.3680 (50% projection of 1.8668 to 1.4557 from 1.5722 at 1.3667). On the upside, though, above 1.4766 will indicate that an intraday low is in place. Also, this will suggest that consolidation from 1.4557 is probably still in progress. Though, recovery should be limited below 1.5722 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, updated interpretations of the fall from 2.0158 is that first wave has completed at 1.7445, second at 1.8668, third at 1.4557 and fourth wave consolidation should have completed at 1.5722. The current fall from 1.5722 might represent the last leg in this five wave sequence and is targeting mentioned 1.3680 (50% projection of 1.8668 to 1.4557 from 1.5722 at 1.3667). On the upside, though, break of 1.5227 resistance will be the first alert that such medium term fall from 2.0158 has completed and a medium term bottom is formed. Some large scale rebound should be seen in such case.

In the longer term picture, as discussed before, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an initial stage of a long term down trend. At this moment, we'd expect a test of 1.3680 support to be seen before making a medium term low.

for more information : http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2009010373809/
  • #108,977
  • Jan 4, 2009 3:44am Jan 4, 2009 3:44am
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4390; (P) 1.4544; (R1) 1.4737;

GBP/USD's break of 1.4766 minor resistance indicates that an intraday low is in place and some more recovery could now be seen. However, note that short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5722 resistance holds. Break of 1.4346 will indicate that medium term down trend has resumed for 1.3680 key long term support (50% projection of 1.8668 to 1.4466 from 1.5722 at 1.3621).

In the bigger picture, prior break of 1.4466 indicates that medium term fall from 2.0158 is still in progress. Revised interpretation is that first wave completed at 1.7445, second at 1.8668, third at 1.4466 and fourth at 1.5227. Current fall from 1.5227 might represent the fifth wave decline and should be targeting 1.3680 key long term support. Break will target 61.8% projection of 1.8668 to 1.4466 from 1.5722 at 1.3125 next. On the upside, though, Break of 1.5227 resistance will argue that a medium term bottom is finally formed and bring larger scale rebound.

for more information : http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2009010273717/
  • #108,978
  • Jan 4, 2009 3:45am Jan 4, 2009 3:45am
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4390; (P) 1.4544; (R1) 1.4737;

Some exceptional volatility is seen in GBP/USD today and with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, some more consolidation could still be seen. However, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5722 resistance holds. Break of 1.4350 low will indicate that medium term down trend has resumed for 1.3680 key long term support (50% projection of 1.8668 to 1.4466 from 1.5722 at 1.3621). However, break of upper channel resistance (now at 1.5252) will be another signal that a short term bottom is formed and will put focus on mentioned 1.5722 resistance.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 1.4466 indicates that medium term fall from 2.0158 is still in progress. Revised interpretation is that first wave completed at 1.7445, second at 1.8668, third at 1.4466 and fourth at 1.5227. Current fall from 1.5227 might represent the fifth wave decline and should be targeting 1.3680 key long term support. Break will target 61.8% projection of 1.8668 to 1.4466 from 1.5722 at 1.3125 next. On the upside, though, Break of 1.5227 resistance will argue that a medium term bottom is finally formed and bring larger scale rebound.

for more information: http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2009010273758/
  • #108,979
  • Jan 4, 2009 4:00am Jan 4, 2009 4:00am
Quoting lexazver
I think cable will go up while euro will go down or sideways.

my reasoning stems from EURGBP, which shows signs of reversal. On the daily 4 days ago we saw jump in volume and although price made new high it then pulled back and closed in the middle of the daily range, then the following day volume was also pretty high and although price closed higher it didnt manage to rise higher than the day before which indicates selling at the top. then you can see there was a sharp reversal which was done on relatively low volume indicating the there was...

BOE cut rates might change forecast....going up might continue till 012009...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #108,980
  • Jan 4, 2009 4:16am Jan 4, 2009 4:16am
The price now is 1.4502 at http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
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