EURUSD

honestly i am clueless. there are too many variables in play this week. fed rate cut possibility, opec meeting, usd/jpy at all time lows, eur/gbp close to parity, trichet talking again, the outcome of the proposed bailout plan..we know it failed but apparently bush is considering taking the money from somewhere else to help them out (do some reading as i dont haha), the correlations we all know so well between everything has been somewhat lost, final few weeks of the year which means big players may just be cashing in profit from the short ride to 1.6 which may extend this consolidation up (past few trading days all my technical signals didnt mean much, just straight ride up). My long term bias is still short but daily bias changes by the hour, it just depends what was said or done that particular hour. So in conclusion to your question, expect the unexpected

Posted 1 hour ago, interesting to watch.

The so long expected retracement is most probable around 1.35-1.355.

Things aren't that unpredictable, as you may see by my last posts i've been pretty on target, provided I can get myself out of my own expectations, even more when the coins in my purse are involved, one of the first things I learn was to trade like i was trading rice or corn... helps me to focus and get all the signs, thus eliminating unecessary risks.

Nothings is absolute, we just try to gain the edge weighting probabilities.

well everytime i think the eurusd is going to short, it ends up going up a little bit. i guess ill just wait until everything lines up. i am inclined to think that it will go short

US. Fed will cut 0.5% interest rate on Tuesday. So USD is sell - off and EUR/USD raise.

yep. i don't get it either. i gotta find a way to get inside info.

Don't think Read the charts, honestly.

Looks like we're battling eur vs dollar here, why?
Tracing a few lines of trend and resistance/support, nothing of what that happened in the last 3 days was unexpected or against the most probable trend (long).

I noticed US guys have a natural bias for finding that the dollar will go up.. thus loosing the oportunity to cash in big when the Euro goes up...

Look at the charts, trace the trendlines, see how many take you up and how many take you down... easy pick!

For the last 3-4 market days people still fail to see the most probable trend, even with all the "experts" giving the same advice regarding this pair. Everyone is expecting a strong retracement (me included) but believe me when t comes it will be clear, it may be even today on London session. We've had an inverse H&S on 1H, then were amazed because it broke 1.341...

Although i'm rather new to these forums (learning to scalp brought me here) its a given that there is a natural bias towards your own currency, that being said, you'll eventually loose some trades due to that.
If you're not tracing Resistance, support, pivots correctly, you're bound to get wrong signals.

Don't think much, it'll loose you pips.

That cut will be fun.

And I like your avatar. Who is she?

If you're not tracing Resistance, support, pivots correctly, you're bound to get wrong signals.
Don't think much, it'll loose you pips.[/quote]

Could you give us an example on how you are tracing your resistance, supports and pivots correctly to give you the proper signals you are talking about? would be very helpful to see it on a chart. Thanks

Excuse me? I'll do that, but i thought that was a given.

Or is that question a kind of a test?!

Edit: added a chart (big)

I feel stupid doing this.

Little by little the Euro is gaining ground

Maybe people are just not seeing the dollar as the "only" safe haven anymore!!!

Or maybe some big names in Russia or even some middle eastern speculators decided to use the thin end of the year market to put some bait out there, get as many longs as they can, then reverse their positions and go laughing to the bank with the bulls' money

LOL, glad i'm a scalper, my positions don't stay long

More over in these days...

PSI, do you remember that I asked you in the THV thread to analyse the USD/CHF situation?

You said that that thing will fall like a rock, I think there are no better words for the PA.

Also this chart remembers me in something that I saw in the end of Juli/August in another pair,lol.

BTW: this is a 4H chart

watch for 1.35

almost

hey guys,i think since the move is maintained above 1.3473 maybe we will see 1.3595 and then a correction lower

I see it going to 1.3600 and then go short

I see 1.3644, then 1.3385, then 1.3801, then 1.2904.

Where did I get the numbers you might ask?

Same place most come from on this topic, out of my a$$.

How is that for a start to the next week?

Oh and by request (inside joke).

Fundamentally, I see the primary reason for the dollar's slide as the fear of U.S. treasuries selloff. After all, when T-bills are in such demand at 0% yield, questions arise as to whether they're overbought. Nonetheless, should global equity markets resume their plunge, that fear will evaporate and $ will regain its strength.

I wait for the daily closed above the TL. Then I aim for 1.37

OK that does it for me. Earlier shorts stopped out and I don't care the reason why. Price exceeded what I was willing to give up and that's that. Don't care if it drops now either, as it most likely will.

It's a timing issue and this time of year that's something of crap shoot imo, especially with this obfuscating baloney storm in the news and out. I'm firmly in the camp of Bemac, should have been there already if truth be known. Maybe some scalps if one looks too good to pass up and I happen to be a'rd but even that is iffy. The season, family, chores, errands and honey-do's are calling...

I will leave everyone with this chart for now until whenever with my expectations, which I will NOT be trading... Green box is where I think it will eventually wind up ranging until the new year brings new direction unless world events intervene before that.

The inset on left is the PA from the last dotted red UTL hit on Sept 22. My TL is drawn from the open candle shoulder of July 22 to the shoulders of Sept 22 and 23 and then shot down from there. In other words a mouse click extends the line from the last anchor w/o input or bias from me. It are right up agin it...

Fixed the fib and reposted... 200% extension at 3600... I wouldn't be surprised to see that level hit at this point to clean out any remaining shorts and pull in as many bulls as possible. That is certainly not a prerequisite to dropping sooner tho, and I still don't see any reason to support a dollar reversal beyond that to any degree at this point. News changes things daily however, so this could all be so much server trash in 48 hours...

Of interest is the similarity of the two climbs up from support... Make of that what you will.

Careful trades all, I'll be watching and pondering from afar.