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  • #50,241
  • Dec 14, 2008 7:11pm Dec 14, 2008 7:11pm
GBP is dissolving into EUR, giving it added strength, sure it's too much in my opinion, but i don't trade my opinion

We are on the verge of breaking the upper trend line on the Daily chart, those predictions from the analysts about going into 1.36-1.37 aren't so far off imho.

Now we have added factors, it's December, some news to come, auto bailout yet to decide.. etc...

Who went long earlier and caught the knife up can put in a profitable stop loss and let it go.

If it comes down, as we all expect, we just have to be ready to get in the boat
Traders are smartasses
  • #50,242
  • Dec 14, 2008 7:15pm Dec 14, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting TradeWell
Here is what I see on the weekly chart:

A downward channel (blue line is middle of channel) that now has PA reaching the upper wall. The yellow-orange ovals show other areas of prices similar to now where there was former s/r. We are also still relatively close to the 38.2 "all-time" fib.

These factors cause me to consider that the most likely PA this week will be confined within the blue triangle, with the yellow triangles being less likely. If so, the PA may mimic the area in the purple oval. PA has been hanging around the 288 SMA which...
nice chart. i still say short. i don't see it going deep into the 1.35's or 1.36. at least not now.
  • #50,243
  • Dec 14, 2008 7:39pm Dec 14, 2008 7:39pm
why is everything stalling now? it seems to be building up for something. either a burst up or down.
  • #50,244
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:15pm Dec 14, 2008 8:15pm
Hi.
What is the situation now? Is it going down in a short timeframe? I place my sell at 1.34356. Am I making the right move?
  • #50,245
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:18pm Dec 14, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting sed34
ok. it seems to be coming down. my stochastics was at 100. not to mention that the rsi was 90.
What timeframe are u looking at?
  • #50,246
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:19pm Dec 14, 2008 8:19pm
I Think EUR/USD Go up 1.3500 in 2 or 3 hours
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  • #50,247
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:22pm Dec 14, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting Zikry
Am I making the right move?
Yes

Quoting Zikry
Am I making the right move?
No

Quoting Zikry
Am I making the right move?
Maybe

Quoting Zikry
Am I making the right move?
It depends...

And that's the correct answer. It depends. It depends on the time frame you trade with and where you entered the trade and whether it was a long or a short. You don't give much information to go with.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #50,248
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:29pm Dec 14, 2008 8:29pm
Quoting Pips_Hunter
What timeframe are u looking at?
4 hr, 1 hr, 30, 15, and final confirmation on the 5. all indicator was overbought. it started to come down but then went back up to 1.3447. its been real quiet.
  • #50,249
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:33pm Dec 14, 2008 8:33pm
something is keeping the euro from coming down. could be the eur/jpy. that is propping it up. it is almost at oversold conditions.
  • #50,250
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:38pm Dec 14, 2008 8:38pm
seems to be topping out at 1.3460
  • #50,251
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:39pm Dec 14, 2008 8:39pm
Quoting psiholog
current technical analysis (ibfx opens 1hour after market open). We are still in the same rising wedge from friday...a break of those walls is what im looking for...the classic breakout and retest...with only the retest providing possible entry..no retest..no entry for now

Attachment
well one could say retest attempt just happened. still...im not liking current market conditions so no entry for me. considering we are at an important high which has relevance on larger time frames...a short uptrend is not the ideal measure to gauge this market. We are consolidating upwards as has happened all last week which makes me believe the "real" move will eventually be a hard break to the downside. At this point in time, only a break below 1.3400 again would make me consider opening a position..until then...what movie is playing tonight..hmm

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #50,252
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:40pm Dec 14, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting sed34
something is keeping the euro from coming down. could be the eur/jpy. that is propping it up. it is almost at oversold conditions.

I assume you meant overbought...

sed, on what time frames are you seeing overbought conditions?

You've been mentioning that from a few posts before, although i don't use more than 1 indicator (EMA) i went and checked stochs, and for example, H1 isn't overbought...

Check your indicators, I have the impression you're trusting them too much, remember, they tell you the past, not the future. The future, nothing tells that.
Traders are smartasses
  • #50,253
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:43pm Dec 14, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Yes



No



Maybe



It depends...

And that's the correct answer. It depends. It depends on the time frame you trade with and where you entered the trade and whether it was a long or a short. You don't give much information to go with.
I am looking at the short timeframe (5m and 15m). Thanks Jay
  • #50,254
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:46pm Dec 14, 2008 8:46pm
Quoting Spsantos
Check your indicators, I have the impression you're trusting them too much...
It also depends on your settings for those things. If you use default settings on any indi, you get default results. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn't...

There are any number of examples where some pairs have been severely OB or OS on longterm TF's for weeks and months, possibly even years. I would wager you'll almost never find those particular indi's constituting a trigger all by themselves...
FUBAR...
  • #50,255
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:53pm Dec 14, 2008 8:53pm
Quoting Spsantos
I assume you meant overbought...

sed, on what time frames are you seeing overbought conditions?

You've been mentioning that from a few posts before, although i don't use more than 1 indicator (EMA) i went and checked stochs, and for example, H1 isn't overbought...

Check your indicators, I have the impression you're trusting them too much, remember, they tell you the past, not the future. The future, nothing tells that.
you're right. i meant overbought. i see resistance on the 1hr charts. I use price action and patterns. then I go to indicators to confirm it. i don't trust indicators exclusively, because once they tell you to get in the move is already over.

there was a post looking at the daily charts. which was the same conclusion i drew. i will repost it.
  • #50,256
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:54pm Dec 14, 2008 8:54pm
here it is by TradeWell

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=50227
  • #50,257
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:56pm Dec 14, 2008 8:56pm
Analyzing the current situation it seems we're in consolidation process, between Monthly Resistance @ 1.3458 and Daily Resistance @ 1.34360..

A break north should take us to 1.34990 boundaries (Daily R2 and psych 1.35), a break south could either mean a fib retracement from previous movement, or a fall to previous big resistance around 1.34100

But accurately predicting seems rather difficult, since lately lower TF trends/resistances/supports(4H, 1H...) have been more significant than higher ones.

Anyway, abandon your hopes/feelings, check all TFs, don't ignore current trends, and you should be ok. There will be great moves to catch this week, there's a lot of momentum behind this pair right now.
Traders are smartasses
  • #50,258
  • Dec 14, 2008 9:00pm Dec 14, 2008 9:00pm
I just awake up now to see what is going on.

Put those SL well above 1.3516.

There will be soon a lot of strong resistances, but the Bull run is strong, so wait to see at least 1.3516.

If 1.3516 is broken and price do not retrace, and if, more important this number 1.3566 is broken, stay out of shorts.
If we broke that number we are going to see a touch at my weekly Symmetric Channel well above.

Well, let me go to sleep again.

Trade careful
  • #50,259
  • Dec 14, 2008 9:02pm Dec 14, 2008 9:02pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
I just awake up now to see what is going on.

Put those SL well above 1.3516.

There will be soon a lot of strong resistances, but the Bull run is strong, so wait to see at least 1.3516.

If 1.3516 is broken and price do not retrace, and if, more important this number 1.3566 is broken, stay out of shorts.
If we broke that number we are going to see a touch at my weekly Symmetric Chanel well above.

Well, let me go to sleep again.

Trade careful
Now you lost me
Traders are smartasses
  • #50,260
  • Dec 14, 2008 9:02pm Dec 14, 2008 9:02pm
Hey there Psiholog,

Quick question for you....

what's your outlook for where this EUR is going this week?

I appreciate the input

Cheers
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