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  • #49,361
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:12pm Dec 10, 2008 2:12pm
Quoting britc17
I agree. I think the fact that I feel the FED will raise rates first does play a big role for me, but that certainly isn't the only factor....
However, the thing we have to remember is that FED and ECB have two different mandates. The FED adjusts interests rates consistent with fostering growth and employment while curbing inflation; the ECB is required to maintain low inflation only (other than lately given these exceptional times). Therefore, the ECB may not go as low as the US as far as rate cuts, assuming US growth comes around first, thus causing oil prices to rise, and subsequently worldwide inflation. Being that we consume such a huge amount of the world's oil, and the fact that there is a decreasing annual supply, a small increase in our GDP can cause larger relative increases in oil prices, which of course are passed on to the world.
  • #49,362
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:33pm Dec 10, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
eur/aud long term heading up. and on 10/10/08 was 2000 pips higher then now. just broke a descending wedge started on 10/10/08. appears to be heading north. i know this is not the normal pair here but thought i would let others know. oh if anyone wants to give their opinion that great also. i did say 2 thousand pip!
SED 34 this is what this pair showed around nov 3..... dont recall how long 200 pips took but it was just a few days maybe 4 or 5... this set up happens is not all that rare.. but up until 6 months ago 500 pips might of took months..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,363
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:35pm Dec 10, 2008 2:35pm
SED34 200 = 2000
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,364
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:37pm Dec 10, 2008 2:37pm
All aboard the short train, departing for 1.2880!
  • #49,365
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:44pm Dec 10, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting Subdude
All aboard the short train, departing for 1.2880!
Please don't mind if we go in reverse for a bit!
Traders are smartasses
  • #49,366
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:57pm Dec 10, 2008 2:57pm
My permabear bias is well established here but I also have to try to interpret what I think I'm seeing accurately as well, which has tried me sorely these last few days...

That is always the great challenge regardless of how we all get to wherever it is we wind up...

The lack of any convincing collapse as yet below the 1.30 level it finally got to has got me thinking very much differently than I usually do. Hope everyone else is taking a moment to do the same. I still don't think it's a direction issue, just an incredibly critical timing issue...

Chart shows my "hate to say it" conclusion for now. Seriously, I'd love to be proven very wrong about this... even if it means getting stopped out of my small long. Fib is a 2hr swing, target is the 123% Ext/R2 level.

It took me a while to figure out how to enter a BUY order again today. Had to google it.

Current 2hr candle has 1hr left on it to close
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #49,367
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:04pm Dec 10, 2008 3:04pm
OUt of gas on long side? At least retest of 20 SMA on 4H>? Continueation of rangebound action or breakout to new highs?

60SMA on daily looking above and sure looks formidable, so I think prudence either way is erquired; no moonshot hopes for now.
  • #49,368
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:08pm Dec 10, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting Spsantos
Please don't mind if we go in reverse for a bit!
No worries here. Both EU and gold are overbought and are liable to correct. EU is still in the ascending channel on the 30 min chart, but needs to come back and test the lower boundary.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 50 KB
  • #49,369
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:08pm Dec 10, 2008 3:08pm
I really understand you ak4x, my bias has been bearish also, but this week we've seen a bullish rally on the Eur so i'm really neutral now, i'll go into lower TFs and scalp a bit. I'm not making longer term predictions with current markets situation, i just go with the flow.. or try to ...

We're getting near the end of NY session, let's see what happens in the next few minutes if a rally appears or not...

Traders are smartasses
  • #49,370
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:20pm Dec 10, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting ak4x
My permabear bias is well established here but I also have to try to interpret what I think I'm seeing accurately as well, which has tried me sorely these last few days...

That is always the great challenge regardless of how we all get to wherever it is we wind up...

The lack of any convincing collapse as yet below the 1.30 level it finally got to has got me thinking very much differently than I usually do. Hope everyone else is taking a moment to do the same. I still don't think it's a direction issue, just an incredibly critical timing issue......
The way I see it is if it does break up it would possibly go to a max of 1.3100 to test the 1200 EMA on the hourly charts. That should be a significant psychological level. If it breaks and closes above that you can possibly target 1.32-1.34XX.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #49,371
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:23pm Dec 10, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting Spsantos
I really understand you ak4x, my bias has been bearish also, but this week we've seen a bullish rally on the Eur so i'm really neutral now, i'll go into lower TFs and scalp a bit. I'm not making longer term predictions with current markets situation, i just go with the flow.. or try to ...

We're getting near the end of NY session, let's see what happens in the next few minutes if a rally appears or not...

The Wall Street bell rings at 4pm, the dow closed 23 min ago
  • #49,372
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:26pm Dec 10, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting mlambole
The Wall Street bell rings at 4pm, the dow closed 23 min ago
correction NY active FX hours last an hour longer, then volume really dies before the transition to the opening of New Zealand and Australia. So you still have 33 minutes of ok volume.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #49,373
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:30pm Dec 10, 2008 3:30pm
Additional chart... same 2hr as previous one but zoomed out for bigger picture and allowing for a retrace maybe in asia or whenever, if at all.

Break of the middle tine of the fork would be open up the 21sma target ((and of course the lower tine as well just below that)). This same chart using line style gives a much more bullish bias to things tho with the middle tine being the more likely support for now.

My single long is from the low 90's on last retrace to the 15m 34sma and +3 locked. I'm actually kind of shong and lort atm...

What a load...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #49,374
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:39pm Dec 10, 2008 3:39pm
Seen this before and not sure what to do.

How about a buy at 1.2910
  • #49,375
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:52pm Dec 10, 2008 3:52pm
I just trade live London/NY, but i'll be watching the first hours of Sydney/Tokyo combined tonight just for curiosity sake!

Until then let me close the lid on the laptop
Traders are smartasses
  • #49,376
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:53pm Dec 10, 2008 3:53pm
Is this a head and shoulders on H1?
  • #49,377
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:58pm Dec 10, 2008 3:58pm
I think I may have to long here.

Someone stop me...

edit: Im in 1.3020 - 1.3411 TP
  • #49,378
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:59pm Dec 10, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting JayBird
Is this a head and shoulders on H1?
Maybe a head and shoulder - not shoulder(s)

Unless you want to post a chart showing a complete H&S pattern?
  • #49,379
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:03pm Dec 10, 2008 4:03pm
MACD about to cross over 0 on daily.

Oil up on a day when reserves were up.

Gold up.

Equities up.

Auto bailout likely.

downside risk seems limited to 1.28 area...

reach for the gold....

EDIT: Going shopping for some christmas gifts...later gents and good luck!
  • #49,380
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:06pm Dec 10, 2008 4:06pm
*relaxing thinking glad im on the sideline... * hey maybe ill short between 3067 and 3080..and maybe not..im definately not going long there..........yet
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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