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  • #49,341
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:21pm Dec 10, 2008 1:21pm
very intestering scenario here. after reaching the upper wall of the previously mentioned uptrend...we saw a quick rejection off that level (1.3073 or so ) To get to that point....pa moved in an ascending triangle slowly..barely. After a false break to the upside of this ascending triangle..we broke to the downside and are currently in the process of retesting the breakout wall to see if its a real break or not. If it is...we can go to the middle wall of the hourly uptrend again (1.2970 or so) with further targets closer to 1.2900 (the start of this last upmove). If this break to the downside was false..well then...we can retap todays high again or go even higher...extending the upper wall of the hourly uptrend. As for me I am currently short on the triangle break retest..stop loss just above 1.3100. Good pippin all

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #49,342
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:24pm Dec 10, 2008 1:24pm
failed between 67 and 80... role the dice between these 2 numbers.. long term still short, but my indicator is diverging meaning long (months) maybe rolling over. not there yet in the long term. mid term (10 wk) still bullish side. short term (days) could go either way.has to have strong move above 3080 for me to be a short term bull. untill then im bearish. be careful. my 2 cents
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,343
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:24pm Dec 10, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting britc17
I still am long term bullish on the dollar. I feel like that isn't the popular theme in this thread, but I am ok with that....
No worries Britc...read back my posts..I share your opinion along with some well respected traders in here..we've seen a lot of bullish PA in the last 48 hrs..result bulls gained only 100 pips...and not broken out higher then the previous bull run...I made my "thin air" remark a day ago...I'm still sticking to it...

IMO main trend is still down..no reversal..fundamentals do not justify a reversal as of yet.

As always..just my 2 cents...
  • #49,344
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:25pm Dec 10, 2008 1:25pm
I don't think it is a matter of Fed raising before ECB/BOE and forget the zero-interest folks at BOJ. It is a matter of our rate is already at 1% so not much more room to the bottom compared to EU/UK.

Next FOMC day is Tuesday.
  • #49,345
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:26pm Dec 10, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting egkid
I 'm [email protected] not sure1.2960 will be support or could drop more
any idea?
I really feel i'm lost it refuse to go down 4 time hit 1.30 go down some pip and back shooting up
CAN'T analysis the current situation get
  • #49,346
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:27pm Dec 10, 2008 1:27pm
Quoting egkid
I 'm [email protected] not sure1.2960 will be support or could drop more
any idea?
Now Take 1/4 profit about 40 pips and move Stops near Entry.
Now about Stops: if you follow Updates you are in huge profit and you can take from that about 17% for Stop Loss, but if you just came put Stops above 1.3087 and do not loose more 1% of your balance.
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  • #49,347
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:28pm Dec 10, 2008 1:28pm
between 67 and 80 could be a good short since your sl placed slightly above 80 can reduce exposure. good risk to reward ratio
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,348
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:32pm Dec 10, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting SunTrader
I don't think it is a matter of Fed raising before ECB/BOE and forget the zero-interest folks at BOJ. It is a matter of our rate is already at 1% so not much more room to the bottom compared to EU/UK.

Next FOMC day is Tuesday.

I agree. I think the fact that I feel the FED will raise rates first does play a big role for me, but that certainly isn't the only factor. Some factors I've listed before are the well hidden mess in the eurozone, that fact that I think there is still some deleveraging coming and also more risk aversion. I'm not sure I can picture parity with the EURO, but I do think we could see an overall bearish trend for the next 12-18 months. Again, that's just speculation and my two cents. I have learned to never fight the market, and right now the market wants to go up. That means I will scalp with some longs and try to set up some good shorts to hold for a while. Good luck and happy trading.
  • #49,349
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:33pm Dec 10, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting Spsantos
Nope, but with current situation, the question isn't who is in better shape, it's more like who isn't in not so bad shape

Never underestimate the power of the Euro :s

Eitherway i do believe a strong resistance @1.3070 if it gets there.
Yes, lol... The Euro wants to go one on one against the British pound... Quite ambitious!.
  • #49,350
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:37pm Dec 10, 2008 1:37pm
Who is waiting to see a drop like a rock are wrong.

Two possibilities now.

It will go to do a retrace of about 130 pips and then range for awhile to see the continuation of up move or will retest in the next hours Today high, if this happen I would be very careful about shorts unless we get 1.32/1.33 area.
  • #49,351
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:41pm Dec 10, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
eur/aus may be worth a look at if eur/usd heads south. this one moves good lately. lots of pips north if charts set up. it usually contertrends eur/usd
above post posted 12-8-08
i got out of this one up 350 pips.. it had 500 + potential.. up over 600 now. my original entry was 192.66. it still has 200 pip potential. i feel good but left to much left on the table..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,352
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:46pm Dec 10, 2008 1:46pm
eur/aud has a big spread. i don't trade it.
  • #49,353
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:48pm Dec 10, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
Who is waiting to see a drop like a rock are wrong.

Two possibilities now.

It will go to do a retrace of about 130 pips and then range for awhile to see the continuation of up move or will retest in the next hours Today high, if this happen I would be very careful about shorts unless we get 1.32/1.33 area.
BTL.. you familiar with the expression..."Watch a bubble burst"...

Moral of the story...you only need a very small needle to burst a bubble..that needle might just prove to be a by most "forgotten" pair..EUR v GBP...believe you me..it can sting...

Just my 2 cents...
  • #49,354
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:55pm Dec 10, 2008 1:55pm
Quoting Shadowfx
BTL.. you familiar with the expression..."Watch a bubble burst"...

Moral of the story...you only need a very small needle to burst a bubble..that needle might just prove to be a by most "forgotten" pair..EUR v GBP...believe you me..it can sting...

Just my 2 cents...
Yes I know, but I see that almost you guys are trying to entry in the train too early!
The bubble is not full yet!
This is the Month of Christmas, it means we can receive gifts, do not try to confuse SANTA!
  • #49,355
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:58pm Dec 10, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting psyber85
FXFelix,
i've got a better price than you..1.3065
using jacko's style to trade heh

Nice entry! Let`s see if the downtrend is resuming now

Good trading everyone!
  • #49,356
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:01pm Dec 10, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting FXfelix
Nice entry! Let`s see if the downtrend is resuming now

Good trading everyone!
you too felix. more pips to come!
  • #49,357
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:02pm Dec 10, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting FXfelix
Nice entry! Let`s see if the downtrend is resuming now

Good trading everyone!

1.3065?!?!


Sick price!!!!

I Sold too early!

C'mon baby

down down down down!
  • #49,358
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:04pm Dec 10, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting sed34
eur/aud has a big spread. i don't trade it.
i position trade so the spread is not a concern these days i mainly focus on 500 pips. i dont position any trade facing a wall of s/r less the 200 pips. meaning on my long term chart it has to be a retrace moving in the long term direction. but these days many of these are 500 pips or more.. if the eur went south right now it wouldnt qualify because my long term lines are nearing converging.my lines only indicate 2 things. supply and demand.. the angle indicates strength.. but if you look at other charts for instance eur/aud the angle is strong.. so when it backs off (countertrends) longer direction with lots of pips im in... 500 pips or even 2000 is not out the question. on the eur/aud over last 6 weeks 5000 pips using these rules is a conservative amount that was availible. but you have to be willing to have a wide sl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,359
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:06pm Dec 10, 2008 2:06pm

In this month of Christmas, I wrote a letter to Santa Claus and he promised me that if I am agood boy he will get off the market.
I believe in Santa Claus.
He knows that I am not here to comb the dolls.

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #49,360
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:11pm Dec 10, 2008 2:11pm
Watch out for possible sentiment change for next 3/4 Months.

Set Step channels in your M30 Charts.

We can see Neutral/bullish Sentiment all this Month.
There will be pips for Bears and bulls.
All people with shorts below 1.2680 opened be prepared to wide their SL.

I have a Chart with a very nice set up, that is starting to move up in H4 Chart for first time since the Big Drop, this is very scary for shorts.

I have only longs open, so I am not bored!!

IMHO as always.

take care and see you tomorrow.
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