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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,021
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:14pm Mar 9, 2007 2:14pm
In case that support is broken, we could see the pair go down to 1.9125 or even 1.8840. A breakout to the upside will likely encounter resistance at the 1.9500 area.
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  • #8,022
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:18pm Mar 9, 2007 2:18pm
Looking at the weekly chart, the price broke down the trendline, so normally this would be a bearish sign. But I think a lot depends on gbpjpy at this time, and whether or not the carry trades will come back again. If that happens, this would be a good place to buy in the longer term, as is the case with gbpjpy where a huge pin bar has formed on the weekly.
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  • #8,023
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:25pm Mar 9, 2007 2:25pm
y
Quoting zawodowiec
Clearly, we are in a 100 pip range, with the bottom of 1.9260 being a very strong support.
A heluva support I must say. No NFP or Rate statement to - even - threat this mark.

Same to the upside. I'm still new to forex, but Cable ranging within a 100 pip horizontal channel seems pretty unusual.

There's a lesson to take from this week (and personaly from my losses). Big mone stood away from the market for the whole week - all markets actually. Reports of CBs acting and a few sellers and buyers in the edges, but I didn't receive one single important comment about banks making big moves.

Those who can afford loosing money were out. I cant afford, but kept trading...

From now on I'm trading microlots only inside of this channel, as I opened this new account to get used to trading with multiple lots x multiple pairs. I'll go on micro only until out of this shithole...

Good Old Days when we used to see Cable up with USDJPY down, with EUR up... then stop.. then reverse... smooooth....
  • #8,024
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:35pm Mar 9, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting katzenhai2
Yes, exactly my thoughts! But, after all this sh*t the last days and today, I'm not sure if these rabbits are amputees and can't hop away.
I give you this one... NYSE closing mixed-to-positive will stick the carrot up in... never mind...

Poor rabbits...

  • #8,025
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:40pm Mar 9, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
y
A heluva support I must say. No NFP or Rate statement to - even - threat this mark.

Same to the upside. I'm still new to forex, but Cable ranging within a 100 pip horizontal channel seems pretty unusual.

There's a lesson to take from this week (and personaly from my losses). Big mone stood away from the market for the whole week - all markets actually. Reports of CBs acting and a few sellers and buyers in the edges, but I didn't receive one single important comment about banks making big moves.

Those who can afford loosing money were out. I cant afford, but kept trading...

From now on I'm trading microlots only inside of this channel, as I opened this new account to get used to trading with multiple lots x multiple pairs. I'll go on micro only until out of this shithole...

Good Old Days when we used to see Cable up with USDJPY down, with EUR up... then stop.. then reverse... smooooth....

It is likely that the support will hold, and if gbpjpy continues to go up, the cable may finally breakout to the upside. However you never know, and in case it does break the support, depending on how much momentum there will be, it could go down big time. It's certainly a good idea to wait and see how this develops.
On another note, Im also pretty new to all this, and I gotta say I like your approach, especially how you try to incorporate fundamentals as much as possible into the analysis. I wanna see myself doing something similar, cuz right now its pretty much only technicals for me. Have a good weekend!
  • #8,026
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:50pm Mar 9, 2007 2:50pm
Quoting zawodowiec
It is likely that the support will hold, and if gbpjpy continues to go up, the cable may finally breakout to the upside. However you never know, and in case it does break the support, depending on how much momentum there will be, it could go down big time. It's certainly a good idea to wait and see how this develops.
On another note, Im also pretty new to all this, and I gotta say I like your approach, especially how you try to incorporate fundamentals as much as possible into the analysis. I wanna see myself doing something similar, cuz right now its pretty much only technicals for me. Have a good weekend!
Likewise.

I started thinking about "news" as fundamentals only. But then, one day price started moving in an unusual way I received the comments about some Iran rumors... That made me stay aware of these things when trading.
Then one day, GBP started falling across the board in the early European session. Man, I went though every possible news source trying to find out why - terrorist attack, something going on with Blair, there must be a reason for that. Until I found the news about the Asian selloff...

It is the fundamentals that move the market, no doubt. How much? Well, the technicals may help find out that.

There is this huge GJ pin bar suggesting upward move coming up. But it is not going to happen if stocks fall again.
  • #8,027
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:53pm Mar 9, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting zawodowiec
In case that support is broken, we could see the pair go down to 1.9125 or even 1.8840. A breakout to the upside will likely encounter resistance at the 1.9500 area.
what time frame is that chart 4hrs? where did that gap come from i don' have a gap on my charts
  • #8,028
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:56pm Mar 9, 2007 2:56pm
the stocks might not fall to much...just to 50 fibo the most from low high this week,...
its just money
  • #8,029
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:02pm Mar 9, 2007 3:02pm
Quoting cesarnc
Likewise.

I started thinking about "news" as fundamentals only. But then, one day price started moving in an unusual way I received the comments about some Iran rumors... That made me stay aware of these things when trading.
Then one day, GBP started falling across the board in the early European session. Man, I went though every possible news source trying to find out why - terrorist attack, something going on with Blair, there must be a reason for that. Until I found the news about the Asian selloff...

It is the fundamentals that move the market, no doubt. How much? Well, the technicals may help find out that.

There is this huge GJ pin bar suggesting upward move coming up. But it is not going to happen if stocks fall again.
are you refering to the weekly pound/yen?
  • #8,030
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:07pm Mar 9, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting 59fender
are you refering to the weekly pound/yen?
  • #8,031
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:09pm Mar 9, 2007 3:09pm
[US STOCK CLOSE] The market ended with modest gains in a choppy session on lighter flow as Feb employment data suggested less odds the Fed will ease soon. Payrolls rose almost 100K, with the jobless rate ticking down and wages rising at a faster clip. That weighed on bonds, with yields rising on lowered Fed easing odds. Slippage in oil and ongoing concerns about subprime mortgage market added to the mixed backdrop. In the end, the Dow gained 0.2%, the Nasdaq ended flat. Most sectors gained on the day but market internals were far from outright bullish. Advancing stocks were about even with losers. Moreover, volume came in on the lighter side again, suggesting big funds were not eager to rush back in and reflecting more of a short-covering nature to the current rebound from recent lows.
  • #8,032
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:12pm Mar 9, 2007 3:12pm
Yay! Good to see we are still in a range! Okay, not really............. hopefully next week will do the trick and get us out of this!
Show me the PIPS!
  • #8,033
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:14pm Mar 9, 2007 3:14pm
Quoting cesarnc
this could get interesting what the hell am i talking about it is already interesting!i hardly get any sleep as it is and now i,m going to be dreaming 275 yen to the dollar can't wait till next friday to see what this pattern looks like. kinda expecting another drop i guess we'll see
  • #8,034
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:31pm Mar 9, 2007 3:31pm
Nice weekend to all...

Need a beer..
  • #8,035
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:59pm Mar 9, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting cesarnc
Nice weekend to all...

Need a beer..
I need more than one
  • #8,036
  • Mar 10, 2007 12:33pm Mar 10, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting raytracy
When we talked with GBPJPY, although someone point out that there is a pin bar in W1 chart, but I have found that D1 and H4 shown that retracement has up to fib 61.8 level.....It maybe possible to reverse down a little at next week.....
there is not a pin bar on the weekly,we are fantisizing. next week could easily produce a lower high and a lower low
  • #8,037
  • Mar 10, 2007 12:45pm Mar 10, 2007 12:45pm
take a look at the screenshot, i'm curious about what you think... wedge? because this means a breakout is following soon. i posted the same thing in the other cable thread.

p.s. i apologize if this has been already discussed, lately i haven't been able to follow the posts as much as i wanted...
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #8,038
  • Mar 10, 2007 3:29pm Mar 10, 2007 3:29pm
Looks like we may have seen the top of this uptrend already, and this month we're finally seeing some downward movement after three months of indecision. The key level in this pair is 1.9200, and if it is broken, there could be a huge move down. Overall, it looks like the pair is heading lower in the upcoming months.
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  • #8,039
  • Mar 10, 2007 3:36pm Mar 10, 2007 3:36pm
On the weekly, a hammer has just formed, following the bounce from 1.9200. That's contrarian to the monthly bearish outlook, and this level will need to be broken to see further selling of this pair. Therefore, we could see some move up before continuing lower.
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  • #8,040
  • Mar 10, 2007 3:41pm Mar 10, 2007 3:41pm
And here's the infamous range that is containing all the recent action so far. We should watch this closely, as a breakout to either side can give us clues as to the medium term direction of this pair. There's some strong resistance at 1.9450 level, which should hold in case of a move up.
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