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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #104,761
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:32am Dec 5, 2008 11:32am
Quoting steelhead
Can you maybe explain to my why i should care about all of this.

inflation this inflation that. Printing money bla bla bla.

Charts are my bible in this market not some trumped up news garbage intended to confuse traders

Charts are history but fundamentals will decide the future

The moving finger writes - and having writ, moves on (quote: Victor Kyam who liked remington so much he bought the company)
  • #104,762
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:34am Dec 5, 2008 11:34am
Quoting steelhead
Can you maybe explain to my why i should care about all of this.

inflation this inflation that. Printing money bla bla bla.

Charts are my bible in this market not some trumped up news garbage intended to confuse traders
Big hallo to your charts.i agree with you.i was explaining my thinking why GBP is not falling so fast as it was before few weeks.And some say when big and fast falls become slower this means that new trend could come soon(Maybe in 2 years i think but will see)

Of course chartsa re bible

see ya
  • #104,763
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:34am Dec 5, 2008 11:34am
Quoting allserene
Charts are history but fundamentals will decide the future

The moving finger writes - and having writ, moves on (quote: Victor Kyam who liked remington so much he bought the company)


Wrong Wrong Wrong Wrong Wrong. I have a question did I mention Wrong?
  • #104,764
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:34am Dec 5, 2008 11:34am
In the 1930's the UK police got a memo saying their pay was being reduced 25% because they had a safe job - expect more of that in 2009

holly crap ..if thats a sign of things to come we are in trouble, i went to the west end today, oxford circus and it was totally dead compared to last year and hardiy any sales..will definately struggling

im moving in 2 weeks max to my new home...and im concerne about the negative equity i could fall into...but hey u gotta live
  • #104,765
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:34am Dec 5, 2008 11:34am
Quoting allserene
trillions of dollars have been taken out of the system by collapsing share prices- wealth destruction

I have had mine destroyed (well the beer money part which is equivalent to the GDP of zanzibar) and I wont be buying the new shoes I was planning for next year

So a few hundred billion wont make up for destroyed money - no inflation - just deflation

Who dare put their prices up next year ? I am off to walmart now for a 4 gig sd card - I have waited for the friday sale to save 2 dollars

The only question is - which currency block will have...
as steelhead said charts will tell us what to do and where we might be oging next, but im not buying into UK currency intervention. Didnt work in the 90's ( i know different scenario but still as long as they cut rates intervention or not is not gonna work) the only way for them to interviene properly is to re-establish confidence in the market untill that is restored don't expect any changes. CDS for uk went up from 7bp to 127Bp some of it of course is speculation but still investors see uk nearly 20 times riskier now.
  • #104,766
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:36am Dec 5, 2008 11:36am
Quoting steelhead
Can you maybe explain to my why i should care about all of this.

inflation this inflation that. Printing money bla bla bla.

Charts are my bible in this market not some trumped up news garbage intended to confuse traders
BUT::: we all need to listen news.We dont have to trade them but we all listen what are they doing with inrest rates and etc.

When Ford said he maybe colaps my charts and all heare was saying down for cable but that day we had major sell on cable.Me too so...
  • #104,767
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:38am Dec 5, 2008 11:38am
Quoting steelhead
this setup came yesterday at 4500. I'm glad you are finally seeing it.

There are so many good setups forming its scary. My brain is so fried from this week i just don't care about them Lil
I close all my trades by end of N.Y. session!

I am into instant gratification... hehe... just like a junkie

Keeps my stress and blood pressure level in control!!!

Every time the market makes a new low it bounces up....what a novel observation.

"I love you man"
  • #104,768
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:41am Dec 5, 2008 11:41am
She is playing between the daily pivot level 1.4652 - 1.4551. No hope to get green pips till the closing time for next 4.5 hours !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #104,769
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:44am Dec 5, 2008 11:44am
Quoting lexazver
as steelhead said charts will tell us what to do and where we might be oging next, but im not buying into UK currency intervention. Didnt work in the 90's ( i know different scenario but still as long as they cut rates intervention or not is not gonna work) the only way for them to interviene properly is to re-establish confidence in the market untill that is restored don't expect any changes. CDS for uk went up from 7bp to 127Bp some of it of course is speculation but still investors see uk nearly 20 times riskier now.
You chart fetishists are barking up the wrong doji

If someone set off a thermo nuclear device in new york today - how do you think the charts would look tomorrow, and what correlation would that have to the last 499 days daily charts ? How would it fit the pattern ?

The fundamentals of that situation would overwhelm all the chart histories and show charts for what they are - only a predictor of the future for as long as familiar situations stay in play

You can predict a criminal will go back to jail until the day he sees the light -at which time all the history based predictions are invalidated

charts are only history - thats all they are - thats why chartists are chartists and not rich gits
  • #104,770
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:47am Dec 5, 2008 11:47am
Quoting manize
She is playing between the daily pivot level 1.4652 - 1.4551. No hope to get green pips till the closing time for next 4.5 hours !
trading the pivots works too, it;s bouncing between the pivot level and the M2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd pivot.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #104,771
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:56am Dec 5, 2008 11:56am
Quoting NightMoves
trading the pivots works too, it;s bouncing between the pivot level and the M2
I know this, the problem is about SL, very risky to get +10 pips with SL more than - 20pips, except we can catch at the top or at the bottom level, mean while she plays in the middle currently !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #104,772
  • Dec 5, 2008 11:59am Dec 5, 2008 11:59am
Yep you are correct...
  • #104,773
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:03pm Dec 5, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting allserene
You chart fetishists are barking up the wrong doji

If someone set off...

well its up to you how you read the chart and how you act upon it nuclear explosion scenario...well just look at september 11th since then dollar was sliding..possible one scenario.

And i wouldnt be looking at the past 499 days or even the past 499 hours but last 30 minutes, actually i would probably be on the side watching the news when this happens and not trade at all. If i was in the trade before the explosioin then either my stop loss would be hit or profit target reached. and that thing about chartists not being rich - 95% of tradrs fail no matter what method u use, a friend of mine from uni turned 2000 pound into 2 million in 3 years time by using only support resistance levels and price action and leverage of 4:1 , too bad he had to move to israel before teaching me
  • #104,774
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:08pm Dec 5, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting lexazver
well its up to you how you read the chart and how you act upon it nuclear explosion scenario...well just look at september 11th since then dollar was sliding..possible one scenario.

And i wouldnt be looking at the past 499 days or even the past 499 hours....
if u ask my trading successfully isnt about trading but ones pyschology...its as simple as this, risk tolerance and how u cope with it..
all mental
  • #104,775
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:26pm Dec 5, 2008 12:26pm
Hope you all have a good weekend. This week was a great week for trading. I hope in some small way my postings and charts helped you.

Till next week may the pips be with you.
  • #104,776
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:26pm Dec 5, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting allserene
You chart fetishists are barking up the wrong doji

If someone set off a thermo nuclear device in new york today - how do you think the charts would look tomorrow, and what correlation would that have to the last 499 days daily charts ? How would it fit the pattern ?

The fundamentals of that situation would overwhelm all the chart histories and show charts for what they are - only a predictor of the future for as long as familiar situations stay in play

You can predict a criminal will go back to jail until the day he sees the light -at which...
As usual, some very well made points.

It depends on your time horizon, in my opinion, as to the importance of fundamentals. For example, if you are trading leverage and are normally holding trades for less than a few days, sometimes only minutes or hours, then most of the trading decisions can be made from studying the charts alone - obviously adhering to the timing of any major news releases when considering entry and exit points.

However, if you are holding for anything over a week, then the fundamentals definitely do make a difference and play a bigger part the longer the position is held. Obviously, the pips that you are targetting for such trades will normally be far greater, along with a very wide S/L level. Many macro-based hedge funds will make long term bets mainly on fundamental analysis. For example, if you are near certain in your view that this recession will indeed turn into a prolonged slump lasting a number of years, then it would make long-term sense to go long CHF and JPY and short RUB, AUD, GBP and NZD. For such trades, one would rely on a fundamental outlook as opposed to technicals.
  • #104,777
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:39pm Dec 5, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting gammase1
As usual, some very well made points.

It depends on your time horizon, in my opinion, as to the importance of fundamentals. For example, if you are trading leverage and are normally holding trades for less than a few days, sometimes only minutes or hours, then most of the trading decisions can be made from studying the charts alone - obviously adhering to the timing of any major news releases when considering entry and exit points.
technicals......
I am a big fan of Hugh Hendry (eclectica hedge fund) and he made the decision 18 months ago (or so) that interest rates would come down and banks would be scary.

His hedge fund is UP - i said UP by 40% this year !!!!

He went for US treasuries only

That wasnt done with charts although he is into chart history big style

So a long term correct analysis of fundamentals can pay off massively. If that analysis is used as a backdrop to nip in and out of the market on peaks and troughs as defined by charts then ok - but the EXISTING fundies are the driver, and analysing those is more important than an analysing charts because the correctly identified fundy position WILL re-emerge and drive the market - its a matter of time use that fundies are more important
  • #104,778
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:44pm Dec 5, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting allserene
Charts are history but fundamentals will decide the future

The moving finger writes - and having writ, moves on (quote: Victor Kyam who liked remington so much he bought the company)
hey birdie,

first time we disagree
for me also, charts are everything... news and whatever happens outside the charts dont give instant direction.
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #104,779
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:47pm Dec 5, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
In the 1930's the UK police got a memo saying their pay was being reduced 25% because they had a safe job - expect more of that in 2009

holly crap ..if thats a sign of things to come we are in trouble, i went to the west end today, oxford circus and it was totally dead compared to last year and hardiy any sales..will definately struggling

im moving in 2 weeks max to my new home...and im concerne about the negative equity i could fall into...but hey u gotta live
lol are you a police officer?
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #104,780
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:50pm Dec 5, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting allserene
I am a big fan of Hugh Hendry (eclectica hedge fund) and he made the decision 18 months ago (or so) that interest rates would come down and banks would be scary.

His hedge fund is UP - i said UP by 40% this year !!!!

He went for US treasuries only

That wasnt done with charts although he is into chart history big style

So a long term correct analysis of fundamentals can pay off massively. If that analysis is used as...
thats some impressive performance. The thing i personally dont always like about fundies is that alot of it could be ambiguous at the time and picking correct direction would separate good trader from the rest - and im often indecisive due to contradicting possible poutcomes

when it's technicals it becomes easier, if trend is down then its down you cannot say its up nice and clear....ranging times though can bring problems
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