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Lilmoe's Trading System and Analysis

  • #401
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:25am Dec 1, 2008 11:25am
Quoting lilmoe
since this has went too far down.... the only hope we have is for 137.70 to hold. if that gives way, the bullish HD on the 4h chart is broken! and rallies should be shorted.

otherwise, we could have a very nice reversal from there

don't only stick to the long side bro. try selling those bearish HDs too... lots of pips to be made
Yes indeed, your correct. My only concern is finding a good place to short after such a massive move down already. Not really seen anything to make me jump back in today - nothing that jumped out at me anyway

How I should have held onto my short at 145.56 this morning -- lol
  • #402
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:39am Dec 1, 2008 11:39am
Quoting Crispin
Yes indeed, your correct. My only concern is finding a good place to short after such a massive move down already. Not really seen anything to make me jump back in today - nothing that jumped out at me anyway

How I should have held onto my short at 145.56 this morning -- lol
lol, that's ok bro... that's why i always keep some at b/e profit. even if it's a very small portion of your original trade. it's small but it adds up

i didn't see any good pullback to any 50ema except on the 1m chart.. didn't take much out of them though.
  • #403
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:16pm Dec 1, 2008 12:16pm
we almost have a 15m breakout. a close above m15 gann and CCI30 above -100 line, and m15 50ema is on the cards

a good reshort might be from there. but plz make sure the bearish HD is still there when u make that short.

a bearish HD is form on the m5 chart too. i'll try adding shorts at m5 50ema first
  • #404
  • Edited 1:18am Dec 2, 2008 12:53am | Edited 1:18am
Hi Lilmoe,

Quick question for you about Divergence, on the 5 TF or i guess anytime frame really. What would you define as an acceptable divergence indication in terms of # of candles?

Secondly, when you say watch to see how it plays out, is there a specific # of candles you would look at to say yes its confirmed or no its not? with-in 2-3 candles? or if its not on the very next candle its a fake out?

Thanks
  • #405
  • Dec 2, 2008 1:07am Dec 2, 2008 1:07am
Hi Mike,


Please can you post the FX Divergence indicator you use?

Thanks,


Quoting mike1349
Hi Lilmo,

I saw HD bearish in M15 following breaking ascending triangle. I took a short but then I noticed price hasn't closed below -100 in CCI.


So now I am praying

Edit:My praying worked out!!

Mike
  • #406
  • Dec 2, 2008 1:14am Dec 2, 2008 1:14am
Quote
Hi Mike,


Please can you post the FX Divergence indicator you use?

Thanks,

Its all there on page 1 bro.. clear as mud, actually 1 of the best system descriptions put together here i think
  • #407
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:30am Dec 2, 2008 2:30am
morning folks

hope u guys caught that short off 5m 50ema
  • #408
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:35am Dec 2, 2008 2:35am
Quoting Cdawg
Hi Lilmoe,

Quick question for you about Divergence, on the 5 TF or i guess anytime frame really. What would you define as an acceptable divergence indication in terms of # of candles?

Secondly, when you say watch to see how it plays out, is there a specific # of candles you would look at to say yes its confirmed or no its not? with-in 2-3 candles? or if its not on the very next candle its a fake out?

Thanks
i don't really use a # of candles. there are, however, certain levels that price need to close over/under for a divergence to play out... it's all listed in the guidelines i have in the first page of this thread.

review the guidelines (rules) and watch some of the examples we have. it should make things a bit more clear.
  • #409
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:38am Dec 2, 2008 2:38am
Morning Bro,

Valid short entry on the 30mins, retrace to 5sma would be good...

However, I'm just unsure it's safe to short at these levels, what do you think ?
  • #410
  • Dec 2, 2008 3:14am Dec 2, 2008 3:14am
Quoting Crispin
Morning Bro,

Valid short entry on the 30mins, retrace to 5sma would be good...

However, I'm just unsure it's safe to short at these levels, what do you think ?
yes, it's a valid m30 signal. but we're in major lows... and i'm thinking 136 is good support as it's a lower TL of a 4h broadening top... but i do think we might get there.

the best entry short was the last 5m 50ema with bearish HD. but i did go ahead and added a VERY small short...
  • #411
  • Dec 2, 2008 3:18am Dec 2, 2008 3:18am
Quoting lilmoe
yes, it's a valid m30 signal. but we're in major lows... and i'm thinking 136 is good support as it's a lower TL of a 4h broadening top... but i do think we might get there.

the best entry short was the last 5m 50ema with bearish HD. but i did go ahead and added a VERY small short...
Looks like 5mins also has another bearish HD forming now too. So a bounce off 50ema would be good and does that also tie into a bounce off upper TF's Gann ?
  • #412
  • Dec 2, 2008 3:29am Dec 2, 2008 3:29am
Quoting lilmoe
yes, it's a valid m30 signal. but we're in major lows... and i'm thinking 136 is good support as it's a lower TL of a 4h broadening top... but i do think we might get there.

the best entry short was the last 5m 50ema with bearish HD. but i did go ahead and added a VERY small short...
yep, bad place to short when we're so close to major levels... that's why it's always better to wait... i'll wait more for this trade to go through, but if things don't look promising i'll bail out on it.
  • #413
  • Dec 2, 2008 3:47am Dec 2, 2008 3:47am
Quoting lilmoe
yep, bad place to short when we're so close to major levels... that's why it's always better to wait... i'll wait more for this trade to go through, but if things don't look promising i'll bail out on it.
We wait, and we are going to see your OLD friend playing Ping Pong, for a hour-two, and building a Bearish DIV on 1H..

lool... not bad for a start

BTW, EW suggesting Bottom, for a while [suggested levels on down side are 137.05 - 137.70]. possible retrace to 144-148 area.. stay tuned
  • #414
  • Dec 2, 2008 3:54am Dec 2, 2008 3:54am
Quoting Piters
We wait, and we are going to see your OLD friend playing Ping Pong, for a hour-two, and building a Bearish DIV on 1H..

lool... not bad for a start

BTW, EW suggesting Bottom, for a while [suggested levels on down side are 137.05 - 137.70]. possible retrace to 144-148 area.. stay tuned

  • #415
  • Dec 2, 2008 3:55am Dec 2, 2008 3:55am
Dear Lilmoe,

Thanks for the a good system. However for a newbie or rather inexperienced

trader like me, difficult to pick divergence, any reference or link to pick up

different type of divergence.

Thanks in advance.

rajat.ind
  • #416
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:04am Dec 2, 2008 4:04am
Quoting rajat.ind
Dear Lilmoe,

Thanks for the a good system. However for a newbie or rather inexperienced

trader like me, difficult to pick divergence, any reference or link to pick up

different type of divergence.

Thanks in advance.

rajat.ind
Hi,

Try babypips
  • #417
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:26am Dec 2, 2008 4:26am
Quoting rajat.ind
Dear Lilmoe,

Thanks for the a good system. However for a newbie or rather inexperienced

trader like me, difficult to pick divergence, any reference or link to pick up

different type of divergence.

Thanks in advance.

rajat.ind
other than babypips.com, here's another link
Quoting lilmoe
here's a link for some good material on divergence for anyone interested.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1227692220


thanks sogt725
  • #418
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:32am Dec 2, 2008 4:32am
Guyz am out of all this market,it's ranging to me,took $200 out of the profit i made yday.


U can get good material on babypips.com
  • #419
  • Dec 2, 2008 5:26am Dec 2, 2008 5:26am
Dear Lilmoe,

In the chart below we can expect a trend revesal from divergence point of

view.

Thanks for the links, trying to learn from you and is much obliged.

Regards

rajat.ind
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-1-120208.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #420
  • Dec 2, 2008 6:03am Dec 2, 2008 6:03am
Quoting rajat.ind
Dear Lilmoe,

In the chart below we can expect a trend revesal from divergence point of

view.

Thanks for the links, trying to learn from you and is much obliged.

Regards

rajat.ind
not a trend reversal, it means we'll retrace upwards back to 30m 50ema
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