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Lilmoe's Trading System and Analysis

  • #121
  • Nov 24, 2008 7:30am Nov 24, 2008 7:30am
Quoting Norte
please post chart that showing Bearish bat
Thanks Lilmoe
here u go

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #122
  • Nov 24, 2008 7:33am Nov 24, 2008 7:33am
Quoting Crispin
Thanks, I forgot that rule - lol

I updated my chart above, this could also cause some problems
no problem. i know it's exciting to see a trade signal. but one must not forget to go by all the rules. you will usually have lots of time before making a decision to take a trade, and before u do, it's' not a bad idea to by all the rules first

i tried a small short at the open of this m30 candle. reasons are like is stated before, bearish div on 1h when price is touching upper TL of rising wedge.

edit: 144 is a 61.8 fibo of the fall from 147.80 to 137.70

we might go down from here back to 50% at 142.80, or even back to 141.60 (38.2 fib)
  • #123
  • Nov 24, 2008 7:37am Nov 24, 2008 7:37am
Lilmoe,

Are there any extra things you look for say in a trendline breakout, to filter false breaks etc. I was thinking perhaps waiting for the next CCI level to be broken ?

Thanks
  • #124
  • Nov 24, 2008 7:44am Nov 24, 2008 7:44am
Quoting Crispin
Lilmoe,

Are there any extra things you look for say in a trendline breakout, to filter false breaks etc. I was thinking perhaps waiting for the next CCI level to be broken ?

Thanks
i try to make sure that when a trendline is broken, a hidden divergence isn't present. and even better confirmed with a CCI breakout of a level or a CCI TL.

at the moment, i THINK we might be heading to the lower TL of the rising wedge. if we take out the lower TL, i'll most whether i think it's a false or true breakout
  • #125
  • Nov 24, 2008 7:56am Nov 24, 2008 7:56am
Thanks, so here's what I see on my chart right now as a poss -

1hr chart - price bounced off UTL, and also a possible bounce on the CCI TL. Chart is also showing possibly regular bearish div. Also poss bounce off 50 ema on 4hr

Confirmation could be a close below 5min 50ema which is also around the same price as 15min Gann ??

However, the issue here is target which would only be around 45 pips ( 50 ema 15mins or Gann on 30 mins )

Just throwing some thoughts around, but as you say above they don't really meet the rules.
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  • #126
  • Nov 24, 2008 8:13am Nov 24, 2008 8:13am
Quoting Crispin
Thanks, so here's what I see on my chart right now as a poss -

1hr chart - price bounced off UTL, and also a possible bounce on the CCI TL. Chart is also showing possibly regular bearish div. Also poss bounce off 50 ema on 4hr

Confirmation could be a close below 5min 50ema which is also around the same price as 15min Gann ??

However, the issue here is target which would only be around 45 pips ( 50 ema 15mins or Gann on 30 mins )

Just throwing some thoughts around, but as you say above they don't really meet the rules.
the way you drew that TL on CCI is also correct. i think i mentioned that somewhere on auslanco's thread, but when a bearish Div appears on MACD but CCI has higher highs (like the one we have now), try to draw a TL on all peaks (which u did), and if the meet, then the bearish div is valid

what i'm also observing is a potential bullish HD on m5 and m15 charts, that would mean we'll most probably bounce back up from 3 possible targets, which are m5's 50ema, m15's gann, or m15's 50ema. i like m15's 50ema a bit better if i'm going to load longs again because it's in confluence with 50% fibo of the fall from 147.70 to 137.50. just like i mentioned in my earlier post.

however, i've been around GJ for quite a bit of time, and i think it will make attempt to retest the upper TL of the rising wedge, and MAYBE go 20-30 pips above it. it's a classic technique of shaking out shorts. i think it might go to 144.2x or even 144.5x before it heads back down

having said that, this sucker may chose to do whatever it wants.
  • #127
  • Nov 24, 2008 8:15am Nov 24, 2008 8:15am
Quoting lilmoe

however, i've been around GJ for quite a bit of time, and i think it will make attempt to retest the upper TL of the rising wedge, and MAYBE go 20-30 pips above it. it's a classic technique of shaking out shorts. i think it might go to 144.2x or even 144.5x before it heads back down

having said that, this sucker may chose to do whatever it wants.
didn't even finish saying that
  • #128
  • Nov 24, 2008 8:27am Nov 24, 2008 8:27am
Hi Lilmo,
When we say waitting for a close above 50ema in H4 TF , M15 close is enough or we should wait for H1 or may be H4 close above it?

Thanks
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #129
  • Nov 24, 2008 8:36am Nov 24, 2008 8:36am
Quoting mike1349
Hi Lilmo,
When we say waitting for a close above 50ema in H4 TF , M15 close is enough or we should wait for H1 or may be H4 close above it?

Thanks
Mike
it's always best to wait for a particular TF to close above its own 50ema

so yes, it's better to wait for 4h to close above 50ema, and buy dips afterwords if u're not already long.
  • #130
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:35am Nov 24, 2008 9:35am
Good job on the thread lilmoe!

I've been trading his system (30m and 1h TFs) long before he officially posted it here and its proven amazing results.

You're an amazing trader
  • #131
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:44am Nov 24, 2008 9:44am
Quoting susufx
Good job on the thread lilmoe!

I've been trading his system (30m and 1h TFs) long before he officially posted it here and its proven amazing results.

You're an amazing trader
thanks susu, and welcome to my crib
  • #132
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:45am Nov 24, 2008 9:45am
Hi Lil

I got only short time to trade but was able to collect +70 pip using Time frame 5 and used time frame 1 to exit
  • #133
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:47am Nov 24, 2008 9:47am
Quoting lilmoe
i got this version of MACD from scrat. he uses weird inputs, but they actually work!

i switch to 12,26,9 when the market gets really choppy. and to tell ya the truth, i might stick to 12,26,9 in the near future. i'm trying to see if it get better and safer signals than 5,34,9. that chart you saw was probably one of my test templates, sorry i didn't replace it. the standard as of now is still 5,34,9.

this version of MACD gives different readings than regular MACD, even if the the input is the same, and have proven to be MUCH better...
lilmoe 12,26,9 setting is the same settings as for popular OSMA Oscillator. The base for most oscillator indicators out there which show divergences is OSMA ... Just if you didn't know
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #134
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:47am Nov 24, 2008 9:47am
Thanks Lilmoe, will practice this on my demo.
Good stuff
Enter Signature
  • #135
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:53am Nov 24, 2008 9:53am
Quoting arezab
lilmoe 12,26,9 setting is the same settings as for popular OSMA Oscillator. The base for most oscillator indicators out there which show divergences is OSMA ... Just if you didn't know

gotcha


i'm pretty used to 5.34.9, it'll take me a bit to get used to the standard settings. but i'm workin on it i might change a bit in the rules here and there.

thanks for the comment bro!
  • #136
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:54am Nov 24, 2008 9:54am
Quoting harigp
Hi Lil

I got only short time to trade but was able to collect +70 pip using Time frame 5 and used time frame 1 to exit
great job bro! hope it'll always work as good for ya

Quoting johninthai
Thanks Lilmoe, will practice this on my demo.
Good stuff
you're welcome and good luck!
  • #137
  • Nov 24, 2008 9:56am Nov 24, 2008 9:56am
OK Lilmo,
I haven't been long so far and my H4 candle is closing in 5 Min.

Would you please tell me what is the best strategy now to get in the train?

Regards
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #138
  • Nov 24, 2008 10:05am Nov 24, 2008 10:05am
Hi Mike,

I was wondering the same. I was looking at now 4hr closed above 50ema we look to lower TF for retracement to 5sma for possible longs ?

I'll let Lilmoe give you the "real" answer though - lol
  • #139
  • Nov 24, 2008 10:05am Nov 24, 2008 10:05am
Quoting mike1349
OK Lilmo,
I haven't been long so far and my H4 candle is closing in 5 Min.

Would you please tell me what is the best strategy now to get in the train?

Regards
Mike
a 1h 5sma retracement might be due. 1h 5sma in good confluence with m5's 50ema, it would be a good opportunity to add more longs there with minimum SL if we get a bullish HD on m5
  • #140
  • Nov 24, 2008 10:09am Nov 24, 2008 10:09am
Quoting Crispin
Hi Mike,

I was wondering the same. I was looking at now 4hr closed above 50ema we look to lower TF for retracement to 5sma for possible longs ?

I'll let Lilmoe give you the "real" answer though - lol
that's going to be a 1h 5sma retracement, IF, we get a good bullish HD on m5, because m5's 50ema is what's in confluence with that
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