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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #7,801
  • Mar 6, 2007 1:16pm Mar 6, 2007 1:16pm
Same here lousy week announces !!!
  • #7,802
  • Mar 6, 2007 1:31pm Mar 6, 2007 1:31pm
Looks like the market is buying carries back, backed on good stocks performance...

I'm not trading this because market mood is still volatile. But a good recover, possibly during the Asian session, will give us some room to trade here...
  • #7,803
  • Mar 6, 2007 1:33pm Mar 6, 2007 1:33pm
Quoting cesarnc
Looks like the market is buying carries back, backed on good stocks performance...

I'm not trading this because market mood is still volatile. But a good recover, possibly during the Asian session, will give us some room to trade here...
BTW, "good stocks performance" is the usual press talk. Traders KNOW what retracement is all about.

So this recovery can be just that: retracement...
  • #7,804
  • Mar 6, 2007 2:41pm Mar 6, 2007 2:41pm
Quoting cesarnc
BTW, "good stocks performance" is the usual press talk. Traders KNOW what retracement is all about.

So this recovery can be just that: retracement...

Amen to that! If the Cable holds above 1.9300 before the daily close then we might finally have a more solid position to LONG. First target 1.9332 followed by 1.9382. We shall see...........
Show me the PIPS!
  • #7,805
  • Mar 6, 2007 2:57pm Mar 6, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting tathlynq
Amen to that! If the Cable holds above 1.9300 before the daily close then we might finally have a more solid position to LONG. First target 1.9332 followed by 1.9382. We shall see...........
Yup... At least we'll have retracement levels to trade above 9300 and know where we are...

Hopefully....
  • #7,806
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:15pm Mar 6, 2007 5:15pm
100 pips up initiated 19:00 GMT...

I will run out of bad words if I start to curse here...
  • #7,807
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:47pm Mar 6, 2007 7:47pm
..and freakin Yen carry trades! I'm beginning to hate those @$%*&s!!!!All is good though. The day is young.
Show me the PIPS!
  • #7,808
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:34am Mar 7, 2007 2:34am
Thought I'd wake with 9400 today....

Large [GBP] flows were reported from the late NY and Asian sessions with a US investment house seen behind the initial drive higher, and some seeing inspiration in stronger than f/c consumer confidence data, (Nationwide 85 in Feb vs 83 f/c). Talk of big Asian interest to buy on dips was also touted and 1.9250 is attracting spec bids in this respect. However, Russian and Japanese sales of Gbp/Yen were also said sizeable in Tokyo time, also seen behind a lot of the turnabout in Usd/Yen after 116.90 traded. Poor liquidity is exaggerating everything, but as nerves in Em markets settle, the Pound should start to gain favour again. If so Gbp/Yen will surely prove popular below 225, after levels above 238.00 only last week. BRC shop prices the only data at 10.30GMT. More volatility within 1.9250-1.9350 looking likely for Cable.
  • #7,809
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:28am Mar 7, 2007 3:28am
Yup, darn pesky Chinese! Oh well, I still have hope that we may see 1.9380-1.9400 today. Right now, I think the "dump" of the GBP last night killed the trading for the evening unless you are scalping. With double bottoms at 1.9264 area and "almost" triple tops at 1.9311 (one is 1.9323) I am betting on a lousy day.
Show me the PIPS!
  • #7,810
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:44am Mar 7, 2007 3:44am
Quoting tathlynq
Yup, darn pesky Chinese! Oh well, I still have hope that we may see 1.9380-1.9400 today. Right now, I think the "dump" of the GBP last night killed the trading for the evening unless you are scalping. With double bottoms at 1.9264 area and "almost" triple tops at 1.9311 (one is 1.9323) I am betting on a lousy day.
Last couple of days the major move started 19:00 GMT. Everybody sees what's going on with the stocks and 1-2h before Asian open reposition their carries...

The math is simple:
- Stocks bad -> damp carries
- Stocks good -> buy them back.

Whatever the decision 00:00GMT reverses it all

We may have a day like this again, in the lack of fundies... Well fundies have be all but important here...
  • #7,811
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:47am Mar 7, 2007 3:47am
This is going to be interesting....

No major releases due in the [UK] today with only the [BRC"S FEB SHOP PRICE INDEX] at 10.30GMT (...). Ahead of this, markets are likely to reflect on the overnight Nationwide consumer confidence release, which showed a small rise against indications from the Gfk measure, which showed a further drop for the same month. Against such a background, the BoE/MPC begins its 2-day policy gathering today with a rate announcement due tomorrow - we look for no change this month (Bank rate still at 5.25%), though there is a 30% chance of a hike tomorrow, according to the latest Reuters poll
  • #7,812
  • Mar 7, 2007 4:20am Mar 7, 2007 4:20am
Have a look at 1:30am GMT 15M candle...

78 pips range (high low) 2 pips open / close right in the middle

From then on, the market traded within this range.

And I'm getting nauseous already...
  • #7,813
  • Mar 7, 2007 4:28am Mar 7, 2007 4:28am
Quoting cesarnc
Have a look at 1:30am GMT 15M candle...

78 pips range (high low) 2 pips open / close right in the middle

From then on, the market traded within this range.

And I'm getting nauseous already...
Yeah thats where I got out of my long at 9330 from 9261. I saw a 20 pip drop in 10 sec and bailed out.
  • #7,814
  • Mar 7, 2007 4:52am Mar 7, 2007 4:52am
Quoting wep561
Yeah thats where I got out of my long at 9330 from 9261. I saw a 20 pip drop in 10 sec and bailed out.
Lack of liquidity is said to be the reason for big spikes. Makes sense. Now that stocks reacted for two days, investors are waiting to figure out if it was retracement before another wave of losses or if the bottom was already seen.

Euro market is trading mixed today, which is bad news. Asia went well, but could have been only a correction after NYSE good session y'day.

NYSE is probably the one to decide today. In the meanwhile, we'll remain in the middle of the wildfire, trying to catch the next minute's direction...

Do I sound "bad mood"?

Good...
  • #7,815
  • Mar 7, 2007 4:56am Mar 7, 2007 4:56am
Quoting cesarnc
Lack of liquidity is said to be the reason for big spikes. Makes sense. Now that stocks reacted for two days, investors are waiting to figure out if it was retracement before another wave of losses or if the bottom was already seen.

Euro market is trading mixed today, which is bad news. Asia went well, but could have been only a correction after NYSE good session y'day.

NYSE is probably the one to decide today. In the meanwhile, we'll remain in the middle of the wildfire, trying to catch the next minute's direction...

Do I sound "bad mood"?

Good...
Just curious. Are you in or out at the moment? I'm long at 9305 for a couple of hours treading water.
  • #7,816
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:11am Mar 7, 2007 5:11am
Quoting wep561
Just curious. Are you in or out at the moment? I'm long at 9305 for a couple of hours treading water.
Oooh.. good question... I happened to short when the market was shaking just below 9280 2 hours ago. It would be the 4th attempt to 9260, at London open, okaayyy, everything set to bust the crap out of 9260, right?

WRONG

Now I'm in the waiting to B/E and get out of this PLANET for the day.
  • #7,817
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:17am Mar 7, 2007 5:17am
Quoting wep561
Just curious. Are you in or out at the moment? I'm long at 9305 for a couple of hours treading water.
Actually you shoud be SHORT at 9305 and I should be LONG at 9277

We would be making a killing here!!!!!!!!!
  • #7,818
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:18am Mar 7, 2007 5:18am
Quoting cesarnc
Oooh.. good question... I happened to short when the market was shaking just below 9280 2 hours ago. It would be the 4th attempt to 9260, at London open, okaayyy, everything set to bust the crap out of 9260, right?

WRONG

Now I'm in the waiting to B/E and get out of this PLANET for the day.
Well the wedge being formed on the 1H is going to break one way or another sometime after the US open. 9300 is a tough nut to crack at the moment.
  • #7,819
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:25am Mar 7, 2007 5:25am
Quoting wep561
Well the wedge being formed on the 1H is going to break one way or another sometime after the US open. 9300 is a tough nut to crack at the moment.
Is what I see... But then we may spend several hours looking at those 3 pips long 15M candle...

I'm out at this 9280. Cannot afford waiting no more... -4 pips from a -30 pips drawdown... Considered profit!!!

Well, my broker is happy...
  • #7,820
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:41am Mar 7, 2007 5:41am
Dow and S&P futures trading lower on Globex this morning are looking a little bit scary. One more touch of 9300 without a break to the upside and I'm going flat just like my indicators. This thing could stay sideways until tomorrows GB interest rate statement.
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