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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #100,101
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:11am Nov 21, 2008 4:11am
Quoting Infinity
My trade is now set in positive so risk free for me.... I think it has a lot of potential too because technicals aside, there was no fundamental reason for this last big upmove... Today is Friday however so whoever is in, make sure your ass is covered...
owh damn..i'm naked..
  • #100,102
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:14am Nov 21, 2008 4:14am
Cheers, thanks.

I'd like to see it breach this zone at 970 to be comfy but the spiny H1 pin does look sweet. Did you close your long or are you expecting a return?

Quoting PowerTrader
That was exactly the right call from that area. There was tremendous resistance at that level. Great call!
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #100,103
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:21am Nov 21, 2008 4:21am
Quoting alcando
Cheers, thanks.

I'd like to see it breach this zone at 970 to be comfy but the spiny H1 pin does look sweet. Did you close your long or are you expecting a return?
Yes I did close when we broke back through yesterdays high. I gave back a few on that second position but still ended with 200 so I am not completely sad. In hind sight though I should have taken the move short off the 4hr like you and Infinity. Great call again.
Zone Breakout Method
  • #100,104
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:22am Nov 21, 2008 4:22am
I'm short at 4987 and this is very very frustrating...
  • #100,105
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:22am Nov 21, 2008 4:22am
Quoting spintrader


....Out of interest, what do people think?
Is the dollar rally running out of steam? Are we seeing the start of a dollar sell-off, or is this just a temporary calm before the final storm?
without any proof by technical indicators, only speculating looking at charts, I think it still has a room to go down. But it seems to be closer and closer to the reversal.
  • #100,106
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:25am Nov 21, 2008 4:25am
Quoting vorschlag
without any proof by technical indicators, only speculating looking at charts, I think it still has a room to go down. But it seems to be closer and closer to the reversal.

We are setting on the 23.6 retrace of todays move right now. We may get as far as the 38.2 but I kinda doubt it. I would be watching for a possible run back up some if the Dow opens up but we have had a pretty good range on the day and it is Friday so I am done.
Zone Breakout Method
  • #100,107
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:37am Nov 21, 2008 4:37am
I am looking for the 14900ish level back to the 1H62ema and 50fib of this move. before we climb again. Crude is still trying to push lower which is a sign of pessimism to me.

Quoting PowerTrader
We are setting on the 23.6 retrace of todays move right now. We may get as far as the 38.2 but I kinda doubt it. I would be watching for a possible run back up some if the Dow opens up but we have had a pretty good range on the day and it is Friday so I am done.
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #100,108
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:38am Nov 21, 2008 4:38am
Quoting vorschlag
without any proof by technical indicators, only speculating looking at charts, I think it still has a room to go down. But it seems to be closer and closer to the reversal.
Thanks for your response, glad to see somebody cares. I agree, I think there's room for at least one last push down.
It is, in my opinion, the most important thing to consider right now- yet everyone else seems content on studying their gann indicators and fibs.
  • #100,109
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:40am Nov 21, 2008 4:40am
Quoting alcando
I am looking for the 14900ish level back to the 1H62ema and 50fib of this move. before we climb again. Crude is still trying to push lower which is a sign of pessimism to me.

But when money flows out of crude doesnt it goes back to the dollar or yen?
  • #100,110
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:45am Nov 21, 2008 4:45am
Quoting PipLand
But when money flows out of crude doesnt it goes back to the dollar or yen?
Correct, it mainly goes to dollars, but also yen - which was the funding currency of many long commodity positions.
  • #100,111
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:51am Nov 21, 2008 4:51am
Quoting gammase1
Correct, it mainly goes to dollars, but also yen - which was the funding currency of many long commodity positions.
I know someone mentioned this earlier but could this be the end of the dollar and yen run then?

Since oil cant break through $47 convincinly which is a key level, then if that starts to rise again dollar & yen run could be over very quickly!
  • #100,112
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:53am Nov 21, 2008 4:53am
Quoting spintrader
Thanks for your response, glad to see somebody cares. I agree, I think there's room for at least one last push down.
It is, in my opinion, the most important thing to consider right now- yet everyone else seems content on studying their gann indicators and fibs.
i agree one more low possibly then i think it till range for for the most part b4 trying to head up..how low can it go i guess is the question
  • #100,113
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:54am Nov 21, 2008 4:54am
Quoting spintrader
Hey all,
hope everyone's having a successful end to the week.
I've been giving a lot of thought to the dollar strength lately, trying to come to a conclusion as where it's going.

Out of interest, what do people think?
Is the dollar rally running out of steam? Are we seeing the start of a dollar sell-off, or is this just a temporary calm before the final storm?

Just a couple of weeks ago, I was convinced that we'd see 1.3xx, but the nearer we get, the less sure I am.
well I've heard some big associate of George Soros (can't remember his name) will have taken all his hokidings inUSD's out by Christmas as he see's the possible intro of the amero next summer, and apparantly his holdings amount to several $100million, so next year the dollar may tank and cable fly up. I think we may be nearing the end of the downtrend, maybe after Christmas.
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #100,114
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:58am Nov 21, 2008 4:58am
Quoting ezmystic
well I've heard some big associate of George Soros (can't remember his name) will have taken all his hokidings inUSD's out by Christmas as he see's the possible intro of the amero next summer, and apparantly his holdings amount to several $100million, so next year the dollar may tank and cable fly up. I think we may be nearing the end of the downtrend, maybe after Christmas.

Yeah I agree, and current cable price action is starting to look more and more like a break out
  • #100,115
  • Nov 21, 2008 5:00am Nov 21, 2008 5:00am
Quoting PipLand
Yeah I agree, and current cable price action is starting to look more and more like a break out
from daily fx today

"A German account bought EUR and GBP for the 10:00GMT fix, which lifted EUR-USD to 1.2611 highs and Cable to 1.4986 highs. The amounts were reportedly in very large size, but both pairs were already in their ascendency amid broad based dollar weakness in the wake of the strong equity market rebound."
  • #100,116
  • Nov 21, 2008 5:03am Nov 21, 2008 5:03am
I,m bullish...still riding on my longs entered this earlier
  • #100,117
  • Nov 21, 2008 5:03am Nov 21, 2008 5:03am
Well, we may may see USD weakening but I don't really see the return of GBP to a position of strength until we find a new "bubble". I don't see it retracing more than 38.2% of this big slide as there are still weak fundamental issues in the UK. I do agree tho that there has to be a limit to the cable slide but it could be as the analysts are forecasting 1.28 IMO if we reach that level there will be shedloads of profit taking and we will bounce quite spectacularly. For me it's ride or slide... I shalt follow...

Quoting ezmystic
well I've heard some big associate of George Soros (can't remember his name) will have taken all his hokidings inUSD's out by Christmas as he see's the possible intro of the amero next summer, and apparantly his holdings amount to several $100million, so next year the dollar may tank and cable fly up. I think we may be nearing the end of the downtrend, maybe after Christmas.
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #100,118
  • Nov 21, 2008 5:05am Nov 21, 2008 5:05am
at least theres a reaction at the magic fibo....

actually thins is the first time ever i actually feel nothing about being in a trade..im kinda surprised im feeling like this..i hope this is postive as appossed to stupid
  • #100,119
  • Nov 21, 2008 5:07am Nov 21, 2008 5:07am
Quoting ezmystic
well I've heard some big associate of George Soros (can't remember his name) will have taken all his hokidings inUSD's out by Christmas as he see's the possible intro of the amero next summer, and apparantly his holdings amount to several $100million, so next year the dollar may tank and cable fly up. I think we may be nearing the end of the downtrend, maybe after Christmas.
such kind of information sometimes is valuble. This summer when euro was 1,58 and was going up, one guy on the skypecast told me that Deutsche Bank was hugely buying dollars at that moment. And later euro fell very strongly.
  • #100,120
  • Nov 21, 2008 5:11am Nov 21, 2008 5:11am
Quoting PipLand
I know someone mentioned this earlier but could this be the end of the dollar and yen run then?

Since oil cant break through $47 convincinly which is a key level, then if that starts to rise again dollar & yen run could be over very quickly!
Look at the vicious downtrend in crude oil over the past few months, where it has gone from $147 to under $50 a barrel. I think it is unwise to say "oil cant break through $47". The price of crude has been tightly correlated to the S&P 500 in recent weeks. Yesterday we saw a major multi-year support level obliterated on the S&P 500, meaning that equities could easily take another major leg lower from currenct levels, either now or in the coming months, as and when awful economic data engulfs the market. Therefore, the price of crude could very likely move towards or below $40 a barrel before finding a bottom.

Over the longer term, however, I remain extremely bullish on crude oil from current levels.
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