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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #7,761
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:18am Mar 6, 2007 5:18am
Quoting Basilides

weekly view of the EUR/USD. I will b looking to short heavily if it goes up to 1.35 (that's were the circle is, which is the top of the bearish wedge and also the top of March 06

Where will Cable be when E/U reaches 1.35? ANother retest of the 1.99s highs before the final plunge? hehe
Hey Basilides. You're looking at 3500 by the upcoming Rate hike?

If so, not likely Cable will go so far high, by its no-hike event... EURGBP is likely to soar, then...
  • #7,762
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:22am Mar 6, 2007 5:22am
Quoting cesarnc
Hey Basilides. You're looking at 3500 by the upcoming Rate hike?

If so, not likely Cable will go so far high, by its no-hike event... EURGBP is likely to soar, then...
Well if E/U rises to 1.35 I don't think it will happen in a day or even a week. But then I might bite my tongue as there are lots of news this week.

I am just thinking that longs are more heavily on the E/U rather than the Cable, though both still at very high levels. So if despite of this overbought situation E/U can still rise to 1.35, I don't see why Cable wouldn't follow it to 1.99s
  • #7,763
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:29am Mar 6, 2007 5:29am
more likely for Cable to be at 1.9650-1.9750 when the big plunge happens.

That will mean the E/U up by ~ 380pips and Cable up ~500pips from where we currently stand
  • #7,764
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:30am Mar 6, 2007 5:30am
Quoting Basilides
Well if E/U rises to 1.35 I don't think it will happen in a day or even a week. But then I might bite my tongue as there are lots of news this week.

I am just thinking that longs are more heavily on the E/U rather than the Cable, though both still at very high levels. So if despite of this overbought situation E/U can still rise to 1.35, I don't see why Cable wouldn't follow it to 1.99s
Thanks...

I just think that EUR rate hike and GBP no-hike will push EURGBP up... However, I'm still clueless about how much of this EUR hike is already priced in...
  • #7,765
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:46am Mar 6, 2007 5:46am
here is my 4hr view on the EUR/USD. A downward slopping broadening formation which is usually a bullish sign. It may test the lows of 1.3050 before it pushes up. I guess a more conservative approach would be to go long at the break of 1.3200 which is the top of the formation.

the 1.3050s are also a past resistance -turned -support zone as past movement shows

My charts are crappy but hopefully I am (slowly) getting better:

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/8051/uerusd4hqe7.jpg
  • #7,766
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:54am Mar 6, 2007 5:54am
Quoting cesarnc
Thanks...

I just think that EUR rate hike and GBP no-hike will push EURGBP up... However, I'm still clueless about how much of this EUR hike is already priced in...
well this EUR hike is already priced in 100%. After all, mr Trichet has not exactly been hiding the ECB's intentions

I am expecting hawkish forward-looking statements from EUR bankers and of ourse bad US news to do the job. In any case, I have a 1.3040 stop for my EUR/USD longs.
  • #7,767
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:02am Mar 6, 2007 6:02am
Quoting Basilides
well this EUR hike is already priced in 100%. After all, mr Trichet has not exactly been hiding the ECB's intentions

I am expecting hawkish forward-looking statements from EUR bankers and of ourse bad US news to do the job. In any case, I have a 1.3040 stop for my EUR/USD longs.
Thanks Basilides
  • #7,768
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:29am Mar 6, 2007 6:29am
236 fibo providing tough resistance. Looks like its going to be the US session to push this thing into the 93's. Still holding long from 9265.
  • #7,769
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:38am Mar 6, 2007 6:38am
Good Day

I ve an Idea to discuss .... what about Sell GBP/USD from 1.93 ... stop lose above 1.9310 ... Take profit

First target 1.9230
Second target 1.9195
Third target 1.9180
Fourth target 1.9165
  • #7,770
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:41am Mar 6, 2007 6:41am
Go for it!! You could be right.
  • #7,771
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:46am Mar 6, 2007 6:46am
[FOCUS COMMENT: CARRY CARNAGE EXHAUSTION] Off like a rocket, but will it last as the Jpy has been the main beneficiary of the carry trade panic. In the past week the Jpn unit has made heady gains against the high yielders. But today has seem a calmer session.
  • #7,772
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:48am Mar 6, 2007 6:48am
Quoting deboooo2005
Good Day

I ve an Idea to discuss .... what about Sell GBP/USD from 1.93 ... stop lose above 1.9310 ... Take profit

First target 1.9230
Second target 1.9195
Third target 1.9180
Fourth target 1.9165
At the news?
  • #7,773
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:53am Mar 6, 2007 6:53am
News are forecasted to be bad, but NFP can be surprising some times. especially with revisions .
  • #7,774
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:54am Mar 6, 2007 6:54am
I'll wait for first 15 min of NY session... NY bought dollar across the board y'day moved by Stocks going up. Then dumpped the dollars in the end of the day, stocks sinking.

Good Tokyo stocks session and steady Europe may provide some enthusiasm to US...
  • #7,775
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:03am Mar 6, 2007 7:03am
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Global stocks rallied as investors said a five-day sell-off that erased $2.4 trillion in market value made shares inexpensive relative to earnings growth.
U.S. stock-index futures also climbed. U.S. Treasuries slid and the yen dropped the most against the euro in 17 months.
``Stocks have fallen a bit too much recently,'' said Choi Min Jai, who helps manage about $1.4 billion at KTB Asset Management Co. in Seoul.
  • #7,776
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:25am Mar 6, 2007 7:25am
Got out at 74. Don't like trading news. I'll wait for the technicals to come back into play.
  • #7,777
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:34am Mar 6, 2007 7:34am
USD negative and USD strong...

Out for the day... Too much bullshit for all I can handle....

  • #7,778
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:38am Mar 6, 2007 7:38am
Quoting cesarnc
USD negative and USD strong...

Out for the day... Too much bullshit for all I can handle....

Sorry... One of them was quite good... B.S. reaction likewise
  • #7,779
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:42am Mar 6, 2007 7:42am
What a NFP brely moved to unsuspected direction, we're trading choclate cable these days, darn !!!
  • #7,780
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:47am Mar 6, 2007 7:47am
Quoting kaesar
What a NFP brely moved to unsuspected direction, we're trading choclate cable these days, darn !!!
This wasn't NFP, man.... NFP is NonFarm Payroll and is due on Friday... 1st Friday of the months..

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