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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #7,721
  • Mar 5, 2007 8:10am Mar 5, 2007 8:10am
Market is trapped....

GBPUSD have support at current 9200, but GBPJPY have resistance at current 222.0.

EURUSD have support at 3080, but EURJPY broke support and now 151.2 turned into resistance.

USDJPY is stopped between resistance 116 and support 115, unable to make any move because of the above.

USD news to give the direction, otherwise, ranging day after a cheerful week open
  • #7,722
  • Mar 5, 2007 8:20am Mar 5, 2007 8:20am
see i told u,...monday will be like "sunday"...
its just money
  • #7,723
  • Mar 5, 2007 8:58am Mar 5, 2007 8:58am
Anyone think that we can make it through this brick wall at 9260? I just moved my stop to B/E at 9215. If 9260 is broken, I'm looking for 9315 today.
Good luck everyone. I have to go do other things.
  • #7,724
  • Mar 5, 2007 9:04am Mar 5, 2007 9:04am
Bad news for USD but my system is showing an uptrend. I am long from 1.9250
  • #7,725
  • Mar 5, 2007 9:26am Mar 5, 2007 9:26am
This baby is going down And so is EUR/USD. Notice how 1.3110-1.3120 is resistance now
  • #7,726
  • Mar 5, 2007 9:46am Mar 5, 2007 9:46am
Quoting Basilides
This baby is going down And so is EUR/USD. Notice how 1.3110-1.3120 is resistance now
Market is weird. Everybody waiting to see where it goes before jumpping in.

Carries are slow, majors are slow, NYSE going down....

I'm still short UJ, ahh whatta hell there are a lot of stops to be busted below 115ers.

No position in GU.
  • #7,727
  • Mar 5, 2007 9:59am Mar 5, 2007 9:59am
I am short G/U like hell, looking for an almost 1000pips drop from here eventually I don't expect it to happen in a week of course.

The drop in e/u probably won't be as big but consider that almost everybody are long this pair it's going to be nasty
  • #7,728
  • Mar 5, 2007 11:13am Mar 5, 2007 11:13am
Trade with half of pip-wide candles is simply disgusting...

  • #7,729
  • Mar 5, 2007 1:15pm Mar 5, 2007 1:15pm
F'n Monday.... Now I got this feeling that later on, Asia will mess the market again... And I don't know what to do with my UJ short, +1pip now...

Whatta lousy day....
  • #7,730
  • Mar 5, 2007 1:41pm Mar 5, 2007 1:41pm
i got an idea take it and call it a day...
its just money
  • #7,731
  • Mar 5, 2007 1:58pm Mar 5, 2007 1:58pm
Easily! Call it a day! I have a feeling everything is about to reverse!
Show me the PIPS!
  • #7,732
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:02pm Mar 5, 2007 2:02pm
Trying to post an image.

Long term view of the Cable. Large negative divergence on the monthly chart. Notice how the stochastic has already turned.
Attached Image
  • #7,733
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:05pm Mar 5, 2007 2:05pm
Quoting tathlynq
Easily! Call it a day! I have a feeling everything is about to reverse!
Reverse HOW??? Start going to the left?

  • #7,734
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:08pm Mar 5, 2007 2:08pm
that would mean it's gonna drop more on the long term, right?

Quoting Basilides
Trying to post an image.

Long term view of the Cable. Large negative divergence on the monthly chart. Notice how the stochastic has already turned.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #7,735
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:08pm Mar 5, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting cesarnc
Reverse HOW??? Start going to the left?


Left=darn skippy! When that happens I think we are all in trouble!
Show me the PIPS!
  • #7,736
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:09pm Mar 5, 2007 2:09pm
GBPUSD is the speculator pair: Its falling even when Gold or EURUSD is not reacting much. And that means it is the pair where speculators want other people to be convinced of a direction and, when everybody has accept it and is dreaming of faaar away targets, it reverses.

What I have learned in this pair is: Never try to estimate where the reversement will start. It will continue its trend until the time you are ahead of the denial phase and able to accept what you see, then it will reverse.

My estimation: More down, for the next 2 days, but between the average pips of 130-150 per day, with some short retracements in it. Look at 01/03/07, something like that. It will not see 188 or whatever without a sharp 61.8% retracement from the move of the top, because if fall too fast to ignore that.

Thats my point of view.
I speak about short term.
  • #7,737
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:10pm Mar 5, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting tathlynq
Left=darn skippy! When that happens I think we are all in trouble!
Big time...

  • #7,738
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:14pm Mar 5, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting Scrat
that would mean it's gonna drop more on the long term, right?
That's what I see. It could do a third top higher than the other two, and maybe form a tripple negative divergence. If that happens I will place second mortgage on my house to load up as many shorts as possible, hehe. But considering it broke a weekly trendline that supported since back in March 2006 or so, with multiple touches, I think we already saw the Cable's top for many, many weeks to come
  • #7,739
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:33pm Mar 5, 2007 2:33pm
thanks. that screenshot really looks like a textbook.

Quoting Basilides
That's what I see. It could do a third top higher than the other two, and maybe form a tripple negative divergence. If that happens I will place second mortgage on my house to load up as many shorts as possible, hehe. But considering it broke a weekly trendline that supported since back in March 2006 or so, with multiple touches, I think we already saw the Cable's top for many, many weeks to come
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #7,740
  • Mar 5, 2007 2:38pm Mar 5, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting Basilides
That's what I see. It could do a third top higher than the other two, and maybe form a tripple negative divergence. If that happens I will place second mortgage on my house to load up as many shorts as possible, hehe. But considering it broke a weekly trendline that supported since back in March 2006 or so, with multiple touches, I think we already saw the Cable's top for many, many weeks to come
Furthermore, today's move sounded like a due retracement, unable to touch 9300, heading back below 9260, in the lack of others, is a figure to watch.

FX market was lackluster, though. Just a quick speculative spike around news time, stop hunting here and there and a stronger USD trial, backed by DJ recovering (now below NYSE open).

Kind of hangover day, as I see it. Since I've heard talks of Yen hunting below 115, Cable failed to reverse and fooled around below 9200 today, no reason why not seeing further down move. Carries also tripped important stops below support, never to get back after news. No reason why not trying it again.

My only concern is about the Asian session. I missed this week open move and suffered with the choppy market since Frankfurt open. If this happens again, no sleep for me today...
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