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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #7,681
  • Mar 5, 2007 3:27am Mar 5, 2007 3:27am
Quoting de123
because u get payed interests if u have lets say long NZD/JPY 7.5-0.5%.= 7% for longer time, not intraday...its double on wednesday and weekends...so thats why evrybody was short on yen, but eventually they must close it to take profit...

u just cant believe it,...2 days before we were @ devils, now we are 230
that is 666-222 = 444...thats what the henry was telling us for the past few weeks 444 right?.....
In the 9ers, we haven't seen 9111 and 9999 yet. And that scares the crap outta me
  • #7,682
  • Mar 5, 2007 3:34am Mar 5, 2007 3:34am
GBPJPY 221.5 is THE FIGURE... If broken , fasten seat belts...
  • #7,683
  • Mar 5, 2007 3:51am Mar 5, 2007 3:51am
[quote=de123;234681]because u get payed interests if u have lets say long NZD/JPY 7.5-0.5%.= 7% for longer time, not intraday...its double on wednesday and weekends...so thats why evrybody was short on yen, but eventually they must close it to take profit...quote]

Thanks Del - a good explanation, and now I understand a bit. But but wonder if it would make sense to short the yen just for the interest rate differential, the downside is the yen getting stronger as it has now. I'm sure there is no such thing as a free lunch, so why would they do it for a small profit, ie the interest rate diff - wherease the downside could be much larger.

I am still baffled!
  • #7,684
  • Mar 5, 2007 3:55am Mar 5, 2007 3:55am
wait wednesday & go long on nzd/jpy,...but lock profit fast or get out quickly if goes the oposite way,....but in any case look monthly charts _FIRSTif trading jens or dolars this week...D
its just money
  • #7,685
  • Mar 5, 2007 3:55am Mar 5, 2007 3:55am
[CABLE] is relatively unmoved after a far softer than forecast UK CIPS services number for Feb. The index fell away to 57.4 from 59.2 the month previous, and versus a 59.0 forecast. More stops are noted on a break below 1.9200, but in and around the 1.9218 lows, we are hearing of reported Asian account and semi-official buying interest. These interests coincide with a few contacts talking of the Gbp move being overdone. At this stage, we suspect that is wishful thinking and expect any intraday bounces to invite fresh spec supply, i.e. into 1.9260/90, 0.6800 and 222.30/50 and 232.20/50 regions.

Do not take it for granted...
  • #7,686
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:00am Mar 5, 2007 4:00am
Good morning everyone,
I was at work for the big move on Sun night and couldn't wake up for the london open. I would've been trading for the week if I caught those moves. Here is a document on carry trades and you should understand them after this.

Quoting marwan2010
I m hearing a lot about carry trade, and that is the reason why jpy has gone strong.

so what is a carry trade? how does it work? and why do traders do it?
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc 3 Carry Trades.doc   111 KB | 1,158 downloads
  • #7,687
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:09am Mar 5, 2007 4:09am
Quoting thunder
Good morning everyone,
I was at work for the big move on Sun night and couldn't wake up for the london open. I would've been trading for the week if I caught those moves. Here is a document on carry trades and you should understand them after this.
thanks thunder - great explanation
now makes sense!
  • #7,688
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:13am Mar 5, 2007 4:13am
Have a look at the 30 min GBP - a nice falling Wedge
A breakout to should see a good run up, currently strong resistance at 20 ema. With a macd and rsi divergence looks likely that this pair will head much higher! me thinks
  • #7,689
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:21am Mar 5, 2007 4:21am
Quoting marwan2010
Have a look at the 30 min GBP - a nice falling Wedge
A breakout to should see a good run up, currently strong resistance at 20 ema. With a macd and rsi divergence looks likely that this pair will head much higher! me thinks
This matches with 4hr oversold.

But Asian session left the market on fumes now... No clear direction across the board. I'm still UJ short on talks of extended lows to come. Don't know if it would spread across or not. GBP 121.5 said to be the key figure to define further losses...
  • #7,690
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:23am Mar 5, 2007 4:23am
Quoting thunder
Good morning everyone,
I was at work for the big move on Sun night and couldn't wake up for the london open. I would've been trading for the week if I caught those moves. Here is a document on carry trades and you should understand them after this.
where can i find the swap information for Cable/GBP/YEN and pther pairs per lot?
  • #7,691
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:35am Mar 5, 2007 4:35am
Quoting cesarnc
...GBP 121.5 said to be the key figure to define further losses...
It looks like 221.5 was a key line of support/resistance in August-October of 2006.
Attached Image
Is your SL my TP?
  • #7,692
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:37am Mar 5, 2007 4:37am
Quoting kenmania
It looks like 221.5 was a key line of support/resistance in August-October of 2006.
  • #7,693
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:57am Mar 5, 2007 4:57am
So far, endless...

Tokyo falls then
Europe falls because Tokyo felt
NY falls because Europe and Tokyo felt

Next day

Tokyo falls to correct with NY fall
Europe falls because Tokyo felt.

ad infinitum
  • #7,694
  • Mar 5, 2007 5:07am Mar 5, 2007 5:07am
Hi

i think we'll fall cuz tokyo , london , us felt
  • #7,695
  • Mar 5, 2007 5:24am Mar 5, 2007 5:24am
This breakout of 9260 is starting to look fragile. With GJ finding temporary support at 2150 I think that I will look for a long later above 9260. We are definately overdue for a retracement. But a break below 9200 could take us to 9000 tomorrow. Maybe I'll flip a coin!!
  • #7,696
  • Edited 6:20am Mar 5, 2007 6:04am | Edited 6:20am
I've been fakesd out by the GBP/USD three times in a row now. I don't like this ride... I just want to get off without losing a grand.
Ughhhh.

Wait, I think think it's breaking above 1.9225... let's see
No, just faking me out again... :-(
Well at least it's not going back to 9200 (yet).
  • #7,697
  • Mar 5, 2007 6:27am Mar 5, 2007 6:27am
While we wait:

Mr Bush in Brazil next Thu and Fri, here in São Paulo, actually.

Messages?
  • #7,698
  • Mar 5, 2007 6:27am Mar 5, 2007 6:27am
Quoting cesarnc
So far, endless...

Tokyo falls then
Europe falls because Tokyo felt
NY falls because Europe and Tokyo felt

Next day

Tokyo falls to correct with NY fall
Europe falls because Tokyo felt.

ad infinitum

Just a little correction: not felt, but fell... Fall, fell, fallen.
Feel -> felt.
Just to avoid confusion
  • #7,699
  • Mar 5, 2007 6:30am Mar 5, 2007 6:30am
Quoting MarkGavalda
Just a little correction: not felt, but fell... Fall, fell, fallen.
Feel -> felt.
Just to avoid confusion
ooops... my bad
  • #7,700
  • Mar 5, 2007 6:40am Mar 5, 2007 6:40am
The way that we keep hanging around 9200 with no sign of a retracement is looking like more downside to come. There is just no decent place to get in here. A short here would be purely a momentum play. Waiting for NY to either break 9200 or retrace to 9260.
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