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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #301
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:02am Nov 12, 2008 12:02am
i think im an adicted to spud forums
thank you spud for your teaching you are really a great person
pls keep on shining on this thread i check every hour for your comments
thank you again
  • #302
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:39am Nov 12, 2008 12:39am
Quoting Spudfyre
This may help ease your entries...this would be much easier if we had an indicator for it <hint>
Is anyone getting onto this? Would be a cool indicator
Time hides Nothing
  • #303
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:34am Nov 12, 2008 1:34am
Quoting Spudfyre
Hand drawn
There you are..I was wondering when you'd show up
  • #304
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:36am Nov 12, 2008 1:36am
Quoting forexweasel
As I take my second good escalator ride in two days (+79 pips yesterday, and plus 60 and still riding today) I feel compelled to say THANK YOU to the Spudmeister for taking the time to share his experience and wisdom on how to trade forex. Us Spudophiles are truly fortunate that you're altruistic enough to give us all the time you do so that we can make money. I've tried a few different systems and even mentorship, but Spud....You Da Man!!!!! Seriously, thanks so much. You've made trading forex profitably possible for me. (and the new 5m system make entry painless and about as risk free as it gets!)

FW
Spud, I echo that sentiment!
  • #305
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:44am Nov 12, 2008 1:44am
i ve a request dear
can you update the pdf file every week to keep it fresh with all spuds teaching
i wish i can do it myself but i ve no idea about pdf files making
thanks a lot
  • #306
  • Edited 2:17am Nov 12, 2008 2:00am | Edited 2:17am
Things seem to be setting up for a short. Even though the 4hr is down remember our predictive logistics..the smaller tf's will likely have to cycle down to pull the 4hr up with them..more than likely that is 15m/30m/H1 all high right now.

**EDIT: I'm in short at 1.2601. M5 price closed lower than the trigger earlier, 15m/30m pointing down, H1 still pointing up and H4 is low. So far +11

**EDIT#2: I'm out at 9.6 only because I'm tired (been traveling by plane all day) and I'd rather wait until the 1hr is either pointing down or at least flat.
  • #307
  • Edited 3:32am Nov 12, 2008 2:14am | Edited 3:32am
Quoting jdcompute
Things seem to be setting up for a short. Even though the 4hr is down remember our predictive logistics..the smaller tf's will likely have to cycle down to pull the 4hr up with them..more than likely that is 15m/30m/H1 all high right now.

**EDIT: I'm in short at 1.2601. M5 price closed lower than the trigger earlier, 15m/30m pointing down, H1 still pointing up and H4 is low. So far +11
Was hoping to get home before the hourly close to catch that one but missed it by 8 minutes. Oh well wait for the next bus to pipville! Will jump in if we get another valid short trigger

Quote
i ve a request dear can you update the pdf file every week to keep it fresh with all spuds teachin i wish
i can do it myself but i ve no idea about pdf files making thanks a lot

Yes Sarah I was planning on updates - when there are enough posts I will make pt.3 pt. 4 - I don't know about every week though depends on if we have enough new posts etc.
Time hides Nothing
  • #308
  • Nov 12, 2008 2:41am Nov 12, 2008 2:41am
I decided to jump back in and grab +6 more pips before I call it a night. It worked out although the 5m went down right to the 10 line, it wasn't a valid long, my M15 never budged so I wasn't sweating it out at all. In fact, I placed this trade and went down stairs. I'm not checking them anymore until the 15m candle closes. Trade went as follows:

1: Yellow line was trigger.
2: Red line was the entry. M5 entry price closed lower than M5 trigger price.

Looking at the charts, I may be leaving a lot more on the table but hey..I'm whipped and if I trade while I'm tired, I may as well hand over my money :-)
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  • #309
  • Nov 12, 2008 2:54am Nov 12, 2008 2:54am
Quoting jdcompute
Things seem to be setting up for a short. Even though the 4hr is down remember our predictive logistics..the smaller tf's will likely have to cycle down to pull the 4hr up with them..more than likely that is 15m/30m/H1 all high right now.

**EDIT: I'm in short at 1.2601. M5 price closed lower than the trigger earlier, 15m/30m pointing down, H1 still pointing up and H4 is low. So far +11

**EDIT#2: I'm out at 9.6 only because I'm tired (been traveling by plane all day) and I'd rather wait until the 1hr is either pointing down or at least flat.
Tired too but glad I shorted this. Up about 35 pips and the M15 stoch is only about half way down. Currently hitting resistance at 1.2550 so who knows.
  • #310
  • Edited 6:45am Nov 12, 2008 5:43am | Edited 6:45am
UPDATE: So far up +40 pips...
UPDATE 2: +60

RESULT: Exiting when the 5m stoch crossed back under the 15m would have netted +51 pips (I didn't take it)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time hides Nothing
  • #311
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:10am Nov 12, 2008 6:10am
I'd like to thank everyone for there kind comments. Also, thanks to CindyXXX for all her efforts in PDF'ing, analysis and sharing trades, As well as JDcompute for some great analysis work and trade sharing as well. Also, everone else who is contributing or sharing in this forum.

I apologize for my lack of entries of late as I'm doing some analytical work, that hopefully will benefit all of us in the near future. I do visit here quite often to see if any questions need answering and if you find any tricky trades please share as they are the most fun to figure out and worst to trade
  • #312
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:29am Nov 12, 2008 7:29am
Quoting Spudfyre
I'd like to thank everyone for there kind comments. Also, thanks to CindyXXX for all her efforts in PDF'ing, analysis and sharing trades, As well as JDcompute for some great analysis work and trade sharing as well. Also, everone else who is contributing or sharing in this forum.

I apologize for my lack of entries of late as I'm doing some analytical work, that hopefully will benefit all of us in the near future. I do visit here quite often to see if any questions need answering and if you find any tricky trades please share as they are the most fun to figure out and worst to trade
Spud, I find this system to be so easy now that I've been able to grasp what the stochs are doing. I normally hit the exit button as soon as I begin to panic but deciding that I'll only exit if there's a valid entry in the opposite direction (our MUST exits) keeps me in the trade and relieves the stress. You must spend an awful lot of time analyzing trades and entry/exit points. I even grabbed a bunch of pips on NFP Friday which is a day I NEVER trade and have been told not to trade on. But the stochs behave with the market conditions anyway so why not trade them
  • #313
  • Nov 12, 2008 8:37am Nov 12, 2008 8:37am
JD, Sarah, Cindy, do you guys generally wait for all the stochs to agree such for a long30 flat 15 turning up and 5 above 10. Excluding the 1 and 4 hr? Thanks guys. I have been able to grab some nice trends, but still like scalping a few pips here and there. I just want to make sure I am understanding the method correctly before I go live.
  • #314
  • Edited 2:39pm Nov 12, 2008 9:46am | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting ubp
JD, Sarah, Cindy, do you guys generally wait for all the stochs to agree such for a long30 flat 15 turning up and 5 above 10. Excluding the 1 and 4 hr? Thanks guys. I have been able to grab some nice trends, but still like scalping a few pips here and there. I just want to make sure I am understanding the method correctly before I go live.
I'm still learning too but from what I understand your basically right... THe H1 and 4H and 30m as Spud says act more like guages and are laggers so yes we're mainly focused on the 5m 15m and but can't completely ignore the higher TF's beuse they will add a lot of weight to the overall perspective of things.
Time hides Nothing
  • #315
  • Edited 2:08pm Nov 12, 2008 1:52pm | Edited 2:08pm
Hey Spud I'm just hoping you can clear something up for me....

In the very first few posts and examples you made at the start of the thread you showed us a short where the 15 30 and 1 were all pointing down, and the MOMENT the 5m hit a short trigger you went short predicting a new down trend.

Later on in the thread you say that a short trigger is only valid when the 15m stoch turns down AFTER the trigger close and that if the 15 min has been going down for the past few hours it doesn't matter - it must turn down AFTER the trigger.

Quote

2. After the long trigger, we must see the %K stochastic on M15 rise. This means that the difference between two consecutive M15 candles %K must be positive after the trigger. We can only look at the close of an M15 %K after the trigger, never before the trigger


Are these two different "types" of entries?

Or maybe waiting for the 15m after the trigger is what we use for confirmation when we don't have the support of the 30 and H1?

Thanks
Time hides Nothing
  • #316
  • Nov 12, 2008 3:03pm Nov 12, 2008 3:03pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Spud I'm just hoping you can clear something up for me....

In the very first few posts and examples you made at the start of the thread you showed us a short where the 15 30 and 1 were all pointing down, and the MOMENT the 5m hit a short trigger you went short predicting a new down trend.

Later on in the thread you say that a short trigger is only valid when the 15m stoch turns down AFTER the trigger close and that if the 15 min has been going down for the past few hours it doesn't matter - it must turn down AFTER the trigger.



Are these two different "types" of entries?

Or maybe waiting for the 15m after the trigger is what we use for confirmation when we don't have the...
Because of the confusion around MTF Stochastics, I "simplified" the entry. Both are valid. This was orginally designed to make better entries with my MTF Stochastic strategies. However, the logic behind waiting for the M15 is valid MTF movement...it just comes a late sometimes.....you can see this movement in the "balls".

If you have an MTF Stochastics setup, sometimes you aren't sure if this is the best time to enter (i.e. in overbought or oversold situations, elasticity, escalators, etc.) . The trigger can ease that a great deal. There are many ways to use the trigger, I've skipped a full explanation so as not too confuse everyone. For example you could wait for an M5 trigger to form a "^" peak in a short and if the MTF's are lined up...or wait for the M15...or even wait for the M30 if you are targeting long trends and trading positions. I've mentioned things like M5 and M15 crossovers for example.

I try to offer what I consider some of the better solutions, but sometimes different things work better for different people based on their trading methods or understanding. Sometimes, I'm just presenting the same thing in a different way...but the logic behind it is all the same, the view is just a tad different.
  • #317
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:14pm Nov 12, 2008 6:14pm
I picked up another +22 pips off this pair. I don't know if it can get any easier making pips than using this system. I'm starting to feel like I'm doing something wrong Just be patient, watch how the moves go in line 5m leads the train with the H1/H4 as the caboose. Get off at the 15m station end or 30m or whatever and pocket your pips. Wait for the next move. This is insane
  • #318
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:07pm Nov 12, 2008 7:07pm
Cool, 22 pips and you have your 20 in the bag for the day JD.

Anyone else thinking of shorting this trigger right now?? Or is the H1 and H4 too oversold?

Danka,

JMC
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  • #319
  • Nov 12, 2008 8:27pm Nov 12, 2008 8:27pm
Quoting jdcompute
I picked up another +22 pips off this pair. I don't know if it can get any easier making pips than using this system. I'm starting to feel like I'm doing something wrong Just be patient, watch how the moves go in line 5m leads the train with the H1/H4 as the caboose. Get off at the 15m station end or 30m or whatever and pocket your pips. Wait for the next move. This is insane
What is Caboose? Sorry my English - no in dictionary.
  • #320
  • Nov 12, 2008 8:28pm Nov 12, 2008 8:28pm
Quoting fxxx
what is Caboose? sorry my english - no in dictionary
Caboose is the last car on the train.
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