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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #7,641
  • Mar 2, 2007 10:40am Mar 2, 2007 10:40am
Quoting moonchild
Looks as though Bernanke has his usual effect: now cable is starting to rise and UJ is dropping. How can one man so consistently have a negative effect on a currency? Maybe the effect will not last.
maybe he could get a job in Japan they seem to like a weak yen
  • #7,642
  • Mar 2, 2007 10:53am Mar 2, 2007 10:53am
Have a good weekend all-
-Taters
  • #7,643
  • Mar 2, 2007 1:03pm Mar 2, 2007 1:03pm
Just woke up to find uj lower gu steady and eu SOARING!!!

As we're having ECB rate hike expected for next week, EU at or above 3250 may sound "rate hike priced in". What you guys think?

I was planning to long EUR/GBP on the hike, but looking what happened today, I have my doubts...
  • #7,644
  • Mar 2, 2007 1:43pm Mar 2, 2007 1:43pm
This is to make you guys dream about next week during the weekend. I'm dreaming already...

[FX WEEK AHEAD] No less than five central banks hold meetings during the week, the ECB almost guaranteed to hike by 25bps, though a similar move expected from the RBNZ has become more uncertain amid the current financial market instability. The remaining three; RBA, BoC and BoE, are expected to remain on hold. Emerging markets will again be to the fore

The [GBP] has come under heavy pressure during the day amid a combination of heavy Gbp/Jpy sales and a crimping of hopes for a BoE rate hike on Weds. Overlay funds sold Cable to a trip of stops under 1.9440, though the selling pressure has abated ahead of the 100 day m.a. which coincides with the 1.9400 recent range low. (...) With the week's BoE speakers (Blanchflower, Lomax) both repeating earlier suggestions inflation will fall rapidly, a market which had been looking for another hike in the face of CPI's early year leap may now be minded to push on towards offers (...) Gbp/Jpy is likely to remain a key driver, with direction again dependent on the performance of emerging markets over the coming week
  • #7,645
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:16pm Mar 2, 2007 3:16pm
Quoting moonchild
Looks as though Bernanke has his usual effect: now cable is starting to rise and UJ is dropping. How can one man so consistently have a negative effect on a currency? Maybe the effect will not last.
Hi moonchild and others,

I think the rise in cable and e/u is from something else, as Bernanke isn't scheduled to speak for another 6+ hours. (8 PM PST) The FF calendar also has the right time so I don't know why people are commenting as if he has already spoken. http://www.federalreserve.gov/calendar.htm

Makes me wonder, though, why would he wait until the weekend when all markets are closed to speak?

I think we should all be prepared for some wild swings at Sunday open.
  • #7,646
  • Mar 2, 2007 6:49pm Mar 2, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting RichardK
Hi moonchild and others,

I think the rise in cable and e/u is from something else, as Bernanke isn't scheduled to speak for another 6+ hours. (8 PM PST) The FF calendar also has the right time so I don't know why people are commenting as if he has already spoken. http://www.federalreserve.gov/calendar.htm

Makes me wonder, though, why would he wait until the weekend when all markets are closed to speak?

I think we should all be prepared for some wild swings at Sunday open.
Huh??? Please repeat that!!!
  • #7,647
  • Mar 4, 2007 3:10pm Mar 4, 2007 3:10pm
i believe this week will be one of the hardest to trade...

monday will be like sunday..

thuesday...dolar bull?
wednesday..NZD carry trades reversal? NZD/JPY oil

thursday...GBP bull, euro short or (vise versa)?

friday...dolar bull

opinion?
its just money
  • #7,648
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:07pm Mar 4, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting de123
i believe this week will be one of the hardest to trade...

monday will be like sunday..

thuesday...dolar bull?
wednesday..NZD carry trades reversal? NZD/JPY oil

thursday...GBP bull, euro short or (vise versa)?

friday...dolar bull

opinion?
I'd say
Monday to confirm yen carry trading a) overdone b) just begun (see post below)
Tuesday - no idea / yen carry continuation
Wed - not familiar with NZD
Thu - Euro rate hike, big spike, check whether priced in or not / GBP ultra bearish on no-hike (100-200 pips down?)
Friday - Continuation or full retracement of Thu's rates news no matter what happens to dollar (news).

Rate statement is being the ultimate market mover

This is what I guess... I'll trade what I see at the time, though.
And I agree: It is gonna be a hard week to trade, although exciting like we've been asking for ...
  • #7,649
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:08pm Mar 4, 2007 5:08pm
To spice up the week...

[ASIAN OPEN] Dlr/Yen and Yen crosses are back to the Jan/Dec level (Cad/Yen further down), but from the similar Yen carry trade unwinding taken place last year, length of adjustments can last a month or even longer (Dlr/Yen down from 119 to 109).
  • #7,650
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:15pm Mar 4, 2007 5:15pm
what are the chancess the euros rases to 4?....
i got a bad feeling if they dont...lol
its just money
  • #7,651
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:20pm Mar 4, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting de123
what are the chancess the euros rases to 4?....
i got a bad feeling if they dont...lol
Euro was at high 3300s by the end of 2006. No reason why not 3400 on expected hike, 3500 on surprising 4.

Actually I will pay attention to Euro mirroing Cable but the last GB rate hike, when we saw 9900 to fully retrace...

Well, gotta get outta here... Yen already on the move and my fingers already dying to trade that... Gonna let Asia set the tone and will catch up the London open...

Cya.
  • #7,652
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:25pm Mar 4, 2007 5:25pm
Few hours of trading and it looks like it is going to be another Yen week...

[DLR/YEN] did not rebound ahead of the w/e, but kept falling last Fri. The decline from 121.64 to 116.42 is 522 pts or 4.3%, so for an example players expecting an annual 4% return is already in the negative territory in just several days. Last year in the similar situations from mid Apr to mid May, Dlr/Yen dropped from 119 to 109. The pair is under the 200D-MA at 117.43. If the Fri low of 116.42 is breached, the pace of decline could accelerate at the previous quick actions zone at 116.15-115.30. Private investors are getting less active in buying the dips. Importers would rather continue buying. Exporters are buying strikes around 115.00-114.50
  • #7,653
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:44pm Mar 4, 2007 5:44pm
cesar, that was then, this is now...lol
us stocks are not in divergence, as long as indexes dont go bull, the dolar is bull so its the expected interests are holding it up, AFter that over we go the same way as indexes or gold i would say...on wednesday the nzd might bull the jen, and this jen carry story might come to the end...right?...
why always wednesdays?...was jesus born on wednesday?
1.9260 going to be tested?...19.marc 07 BPH7 expires....dont forget!, after that we go bull till uk elections ?
its just money
  • #7,654
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:53pm Mar 4, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting de123
cesar, that was then, this is now...lol
us stocks are not in divergence, as long as indexes dont go bull, the dolar is bull so its the expected interests are holding it up, AFter that over we go the same way as indexes or gold i would say...on wednesday the nzd might bull the jen, and this jen carry story might come to the end...right?...
why always wednesdays?...was jesus born on wednesday?
1.9260 going to be tested?...19.marc 07 BPH7 expires....dont forget!, after that we go bull till uk elections ?
25 min ago I was talking about "confirm if yen carry is done".

Forget it... All majors yen down the hole ... Cable at 9350 already. Too creepy a week open. Not gonna trade this, no way... "WFT?" Monday began on Sunday here

Just hope to have something left to trade by London...
  • #7,655
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:54pm Mar 4, 2007 5:54pm
what a move by the gbpusd unbelievable im getting rich when is the time to long? so i could reverse my position. this feels good. i could rest and have a vacation this march.
  • #7,656
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:58pm Mar 4, 2007 5:58pm
don't rush to buy ;-)
  • #7,657
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm
What the f### i got my computer stolen on friday and now this! techs cant tell me how to download onto new vista program Im screwed cant trade cuz platforms don work till techs come in to work! anyone know about vista?
  • #7,658
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm
yeah very creepy hundred pips in an hour am i really seeing this :surprised cant help to be greedy
  • #7,659
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm
will 642 S3 gold hold?
its just money
  • #7,660
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:13pm Mar 4, 2007 6:13pm
this is creapy...1.890 61.8 monthly chrts next?
its just money
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