Cable Update (GBPUSD)

5740 now

50 fib test will be nice if break 5745 and 5760 and 5780

got a lousy 58 pips today while i was away...

overall this week +130 -85 +65 +0 +110 +21 -100 -65 +100 +50

total +226

5780 looking nice

long at 5735 previous candle looked good for long, 15m chart, targeting 1hr 62 ema again

we need to break 15 gann or we are in range
LOcked good profit.Parabolic on 15 bearish.will be hard for more up

4 hr gann at 5850 area.Parabolic on 15 bulish now,hope stays that way
SL BE+40

sweet, same order as before, but closed for a few pips have to go change nappies

possible retrace to 5765 area for this 15 candle

looking forward for possible sell this time at 1.5844

Yes, I am looking at longs but I am not suggesting that anyone take them right now. I am certainly not making a technical recommendation on them. I am merely throwing out the personal opinion that the current downtrend could be running out of steam.

A lot of the fundamental dollar growth lately has been based on unloading of leveraged positions and movement into the dollar as a "safe haven" currency. With the significant reduction in the interest rates by 1.5% I can already see businesses around me suggesting that their chance of survival and recovery are good. With a sense of optimism here once more, we are likely to see increases in spending again and maybe even the odd house getting sold again.

In the past few weeks I have seen average people looking to move their money out of pounds and into Dollars. Every time bad data came out for the US, more money moved into the dollar. It all seems so crazy.. Now, The fundamental reasons for the UK economy being worse off than the US are running out so there is little reason to disinvest further from GBP and into US. I would personally rather have my money in Pounds and it is only a matter of time till the UK confidence filters back.

The simple fact that we did not see a new low following this rate cut leads me to believe the questions are being asked on this downtrend and whether the GBP is more resilient now. I truly believe it is.

So, no I do not have a technical reason to not short cable and I am sure there are many technicals that will continue with shorts for some time, but when that next big low is reached, I will be buying the longs. I will also be playing the shorts based on technical price action.

Please don't view this as a recommendation but rather an opinion.

if we break 5785 i am closing

still long need to see next 15m candle opening.think this is reatrace

if it breaks the next target and strong area is 1.5843... looking forward for a possible short there

On 1 hr ichimoku has imortant line at 5790 and that is hard to break line for now. if not now later in da y will be break i think

I am looking to because i am long.But today i expect to break that level because of news from USA in 1 hr.Will watch that level on smaler TF.I have good resistance theare as well but... everything could be broken

will see later

yeah but another important line is 1.5843

1.5790 has alot of fibo levels on it from the daily and the 4h charts... 1.5843 is only the 61% of the last hourly trend but still resistance over there

15 minutes to new 1 hr candle.hope this old one close above 5790 minimum

Thanks for the explanation. No don't worry, I have my own plan mapped out, if you read my posts you will see that I have been shouting for shorts for a while, and I will continue to!
I think I agree with what you are saying, however I think that the safety in the pound that you speak of will take a lot longer to materialise. Whilst you say that there is less evidence of economic woe in the UK, I think we most certainly haven't seen the last of it.
And as for the rate cut, I don't think anyone was really expecting a sudden 1000 pip plunge. I think its effect on market sentiment will be shown over the coming weeks. And the 150 bpp cut from the UK opposed to the 50 basis point cut in the euro is a strong indication of just how bad things in the UK are. I expect a turnaround- but it will be a long and slow process.
I guess I'm not as optimistic as you, but I always expect things to get a little worse before they get better.

U.S. Non-Farm Jobs Report comes out shortly

Expected to come out around -200K and 6.3%

If it comes out at 250k or more then expect stock market to sell off and $$$ gain strength. Flight to Security.

If it comes out better then expected then the stock market will go up and GU may stay flat or go up also.

If you are going to trade this news release then I think the reaction will be opposite to what normally happens. On a better then expected report the $$$$ may even gain strength as usual with a good jobs number.

I plan to be looking for a short entry on GU within the first fifteen mins. after the news release.