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kharvell's Trades

  • #21
  • Feb 28, 2007 8:49am Feb 28, 2007 8:49am
Quoting grillbritt
How come you are shorting U/J? The price did go all the way to BB4 and then retraced... is there something you know that I don't?
No, I wish I had a crystal ball , but I've found my best trading comes when I just follow my trading plan. My charts indicated a short, and so that's what I did. Time will tell if it was the right move, but in my case, history has proven that I trade worse when I "overthink" my trades. I've also missed some great moves just because I "knew" price couldn't go any further.

Now, with that said, I'm currently -35 on USD/CHF & -6 on USD/JPY. So, these particular trades could go either way, but I'm at peace with my decision because I followed my trading method. If I do that, I'm convinced there will be more winners than losers at the end of every month.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #22
  • Feb 28, 2007 8:55am Feb 28, 2007 8:55am
Quoting yen44x
No, I wish I had a crystal ball , but I've found my best trading comes when I just follow my trading plan. My charts indicated a short, and so that's what I did. Time will tell if it was the right move, but in my case, history has proven that I trade worse when I "overthink" my trades. I've also missed some great moves just because I "knew" price couldn't go any further.

Now, with that said, I'm currently -35 on USD/CHF & -6 on USD/JPY. So, these particular trades could go either way, but I'm at peace with my decision because I followed my trading method. If I do that, I'm convinced there will be more winners than losers at the end of every month.
I wouldn't worry Yen; I'm pretty sure USD/JPY is going DOWN... Just the calm before the storm... And if we lose, well, that's lame
  • #23
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:46am Feb 28, 2007 9:46am
Quoting kharvell

News shmooze. I'm a technical trader, and I'm seeing SHORT. Why complicate this by adding NEWS
I trade tehnical too, but I don't trade during the news releas. Althought my oppinion is that news and sentimental trading creates patterns, i stay out of trades during this period.
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #24
  • Feb 28, 2007 10:01am Feb 28, 2007 10:01am
Quote
News shmooze. I'm a technical trader, and I'm seeing SHORT. Why complicate this by adding NEWS
Quote
I trade tehnical too, but I don't trade during the news releas. Althought my oppinion is that news and sentimental trading creates patterns, i stay out of trades during this period.
My feeling is that every trader has to do what works for them. I personally stay out of the market during the NFP report and tend to ignore the rest of the reports. My experience has been that the market has already priced in the majority of news releases, so as long as my technical analysis is correct, and I have a stop loss that allows for some market movement, I'm comfortable trading during news releases.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #25
  • Feb 28, 2007 10:23am Feb 28, 2007 10:23am
Hello again!

Thanks for the notification by PM Kevin http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

Yesterday evening I opened L on Eur/Jpy. Up till now it seemed like a bad decision, but looks good now.
Anyway, acting as the system indicates.
Just to mention, I opened S on monday and gained a few pips riding the long black candle
Thomas
  • #26
  • Feb 28, 2007 2:13pm Feb 28, 2007 2:13pm
just to write my BB trade.

short USD/CHF @ 1.2384 (3 days ago)
I just close at +204 pip (to many news coming tommorow involving USD)

To clarify why I entered this trade: it tested the 20 sma and failed and looks like a Evening Star Pattern

Long live BB
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #27
  • Feb 28, 2007 3:31pm Feb 28, 2007 3:31pm
Anyone interested in going Short on the USD/CAD retrace to the 20 sma?

Randy
  • #28
  • Edited 4:02pm Feb 28, 2007 3:55pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting yen44x
My feeling is that every trader has to do what works for them. I personally stay out of the market during the NFP report and tend to ignore the rest of the reports. My experience has been that the market has already priced in the majority of news releases, so as long as my technical analysis is correct, and I have a stop loss that allows for some market movement, I'm comfortable trading during news releases.
My theory is that if the backtests work, and there was not ONE MENTION of news, why would I rely on the news in real time? I'm not meaning to knock on news here, because I occasionally read the news when I see big movements, but typically I just keep my nose out in an attempt to keep it simple.

Quote
just to write my BB trade.

short USD/CHF @ 1.2384 (3 days ago)
I just close at +204 pip (to many news coming tommorow involving USD)

To clarify why I entered this trade: it tested the 20 sma and failed and looks like a Evening Star Pattern

Long live BB

"Long live BB"

Bollinger Bands are pretty cool... Congratulations on your 204 pips! I think that your analysis on the SMA bounce is very good! If I were you I'd still be in that sucker, but that's just me
Right now I am pretty much at when I entered my 3 positions. I did hit my T/P for USD/CAD; am still thinking JPY crosses are to go down news release or no release. I still accept the possibility of losing though. We'll just have to see.

Quote
Hello again!

Thanks for the notification by PM Kevin

Yesterday evening I opened L on Eur/Jpy. Up till now it seemed like a bad decision, but looks good now.
Anyway, acting as the system indicates.
Just to mention, I opened S on monday and gained a few pips riding the long black candle

thomas,

I'm not sure being Long in EUR/JPY is a good idea. I think these may be extenuating circumstances due to the recent powerful decrease. You decide what you want to, but it seems risky to me; maybe you see something different. I might just enter long EUR/JPY tonight as a hedge for my other 2 short trades. It IS giving a signal...

Will have to think about that one.

Quote
Anyone interested in going Short on the USD/CAD retrace to the 20 sma?

Randy

It's looking rather nice.. could set up for a double top. May take this one with you. It makes a poor example of a shooting star, but given that it is close to the SMA, I think it looks good to trade. Good observation Randy!

Kevin



May be entering Long EUR/JPY with thomas tonight. Seems like a decent idea to hedge a little bit, and see which trade is right, or even both trades would be right

Here's that TP I talked about earlier:

USD/CAD TP hit @ 1.1709 - 1.1675 = 34 pips

Total Pips = 638
  • #29
  • Feb 28, 2007 4:11pm Feb 28, 2007 4:11pm
Entered:

Short USD/CAD @ 1.1692

S/L: 1.1716 (that would be a break of the 2-20-07 high)
T/P: Aw hell, I'll just keep an eye on it!
  • #30
  • Feb 28, 2007 5:56pm Feb 28, 2007 5:56pm
Quoting kharvell

thomas,

I'm not sure being Long in EUR/JPY is a good idea. I think these may be extenuating circumstances due to the recent powerful decrease. You decide what you want to, but it seems risky to me; maybe you see something different. I might just enter long EUR/JPY tonight as a hedge for my other 2 short trades. It IS giving a signal...

Will have to think about that one.
So far so good with that one (~50p).
I agree that we should be cautious after that long black candle, but just wanted to follow BB sys and see what happens and do not think too much whether it is good or bad decision. I want to get rid of the factor of "good and bad feeling" even if it's sometimes right.

BTW: I get really confused with ATR=2,1525 - how far (pips) to put SL? Damn, I thought I understood this, but seems like I haven't. Is it 152 pips or what?
Thomas
  • #31
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:02pm Feb 28, 2007 9:02pm
Quote
BTW: I get really confused with ATR=2,1525 - how far (pips) to put SL? Damn, I thought I understood this, but seems like I haven't. Is it 152 pips or what?
Thomas,

The ATR (20 setting) for EUR/JPY on my charts is 1.2350, which would translate to just over 123 pips. To give you another example, my ATR reading for EUR/USD is 0.007050, or just over 70 pips.

I'm not sure why your reading for EUR/JPY would be so much different unless you're using a different ATR setting.

As a general rule, I don't use a stop loss of over 100 pips even if the ATR is higher, but that's your call.

Hope that helps.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #32
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:13pm Feb 28, 2007 9:13pm
Hello everyone,

I have entered a few trades; two of which are with thomas and Randy.

I think Yen answered thomas' question pretty thoroughly.

Here are the trades I entered this evening:

Short EUR/GBP @ .6737
T/P = .6679
S/L = .6769

Long EUR/JPY @ 156.69
T/P = 157.59
S/L = 155.69

Short USD/CAD @ 1.1694
T/P = Undetermined
S/L = 1.1762

I'm more or less at break even or a bit negative.

Good luck to all,

Kevin
  • #33
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:43pm Feb 28, 2007 9:43pm
Hi Kharvel,

Can you share your strategy; I am interest for your strategy.

Thanks, core
  • #34
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:51pm Feb 28, 2007 9:51pm
Quoting Core
Hi Kharvel,

Can you share your strategy; I am interest for your strategy.

Thanks, core
Hey Core,

I actually plan to start a business with my method, so I'm afraid I can't tell you how I place my trades. Alas, there was once a time when I would have been glad to help you, but now I just have to do this for me.

Sorry,

Kevin
  • #35
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:57pm Feb 28, 2007 9:57pm
Hi Kevin,

Ok, Thanks.
If you want to share your strategy, pls send to me.

Regards, Core
  • #36
  • Mar 1, 2007 12:21am Mar 1, 2007 12:21am
I'm not sure about the USD/CAD trade.
In my oanda it has already passed the 20 SMA, and if you guys look at the past it almost always go all the way to the BB. Maybe it's just my Oanda??
  • #37
  • Mar 1, 2007 8:51am Mar 1, 2007 8:51am
Got stopped on USD/CAD.

My IBFX account showed a close slightly above the 20 sma yesterday while my One World Forex account showed a close below (with the upper shadow bouncing off of the 20 sma).

Randy
  • #38
  • Edited 9:48am Mar 1, 2007 9:04am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting RandyG67
Got stopped on USD/CAD.

My IBFX account showed a close slightly above the 20 sma yesterday while my One World Forex account showed a close below (with the upper shadow bouncing off of the 20 sma).


Randy
Hey Randy,

Doesn't look like USD/CAD was such a good idea afterall My other EUR/JPY trade wasn't too good of an idea either. It's a good thing I only risked 1% for both!


On the other hand, I hope we all heeded my advice when I said JPY is going DOWN, because well, it went DOWN!


EUR/JPY S/L hit @ 155.69 = -100 pips

USD/CAD closed out @ 1.1747 = -53 pips

And a little visual of my trades, Seems I got my lot sizes right this time around:
Attached Image
  • #39
  • Mar 1, 2007 2:43pm Mar 1, 2007 2:43pm
I don't mean to brag, but...

An image says more than thousands words

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/9475/20070301nw9.jpg

Too bad I did't have 10 000 units...
  • #40
  • Mar 1, 2007 3:22pm Mar 1, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting grillbritt
I don't mean to brag, but...

An image says more than thousands words

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/9475/20070301nw9.jpg

Too bad I did't have 10 000 units...
O maaan 8|

My idea to put L on GBPJPY was rather stupid. Initialy was not so bad but at night I was stopped out (evening US time).
Thomas
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