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  • #41,221
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:05am Oct 23, 2008 9:05am
The attached 4hr. chart shows pinching in-process on inner Bollinger band, which will require some more timeframes to complete and show a breakout. Note the run down resulted in nice candle base at the 838% extension level. The 30 chart shows a nice dual Bollinger band pinch, with breakout in process. But I should not be surprised if they knock it back down to the 1.2838 area before ramming it upwards....maybe even lower, as the volume seems to be saying that they are loading up long positions now. If so, they will REALLY load up, which will require time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4hr #1 10-23-2008.gif Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 30min #1 10-23-2008.gif Size: 64 KB
  • #41,222
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:06am Oct 23, 2008 9:06am
Quoting SunTrader
Looks to me we are in Wave 4 of 5 on a 60m chart (see below), but still in a Wave 3 of 5 on a 240m chart basis. So short term possible higher but then down after that.

I quite agree with you. But i wont mind if the 4 came to an end allready.
  • #41,223
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:07am Oct 23, 2008 9:07am
Quoting SeaPip
Just wonder, any of you beside Mr. Bull is buying right now?
Not me. Waiting for next wave down.
  • #41,224
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:09am Oct 23, 2008 9:09am
Hit the Pivot Point... then... boink.

Down... more down.

50 PIPS.

Done for the day.

m
  • #41,225
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:11am Oct 23, 2008 9:11am
Quoting traderathome
The attached 4hr. chart shows pinching in-process on inner Bollinger band, which will require some more timeframes to complete and show a breakout. Note the run down resulted in nice candle base at the 838% extension level. The 30 chart shows a nice dual Bollinger band pinch, with breakout in process. But I should not be surprised if they knock it back down to the 1.2838 area before ramming it upwards....maybe even lower, as the volume seems to be saying that they are loading up long positions now. If so, they will REALLY load up, which will require time.
If you don't mind me asking what are your anchoring points for fib extension??
  • #41,226
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:11am Oct 23, 2008 9:11am
Quoting P.i.P
I quite agree with you. But i wont mind if the 4 came to an end allready.
You just got here! Don't go spoiling the bear party.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #41,227
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:13am Oct 23, 2008 9:13am
Quoting SunTrader
The wave count I have is we haven't even completed Wave 3 yet. I could be wrong though. Notice how much longer Wave 1 is to Wave 3.

SunTrader

Thanks for your comment

Actually we are in the same boat

The chart is to analysis wave 3 internally, since we are intraday trader and our positions stay for couples of hours.

But you are right , we are still in the third wave which suppose to end @ 1.2444 or close to that, then we will have a good retracement for wave 4

Regards

  • #41,228
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:18am Oct 23, 2008 9:18am
Accumen, may I ask do you use Midnight EST to calculate your pivots????


Quoting acumen
Hit the Pivot Point... then... boink.

Down... more down.

50 PIPS.

Done for the day.

m
  • #41,229
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:19am Oct 23, 2008 9:19am
Quoting SpecialEd
You just got here! Don't go spoiling the bear party.

Sorry ,didn't get that.

i am not that much of a party type.
  • #41,230
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:20am Oct 23, 2008 9:20am
100 pip up, 100 pip down....... volatile
  • #41,231
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:20am Oct 23, 2008 9:20am
Quoting To Be

SunTrader

Thanks for your comment

Actually we are in the same boat

The chart is to analysis wave 3 internally, since we are intraday trader and our positions stay for couples of hours.

But you are right , we are still in the third wave which suppose to end @ 1.2444 or close to that, then we will have a good retracement for wave 4

Regards

My understanding about basic EW is that either 1, 3, or 5 can be longest then the other two remaining segments should be about of equal length. But again, my disclaimer is that I have not studied it in depth!
  • #41,232
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:21am Oct 23, 2008 9:21am
Quoting P.i.P
Sorry ,didn't get that.

i am not that much of a party type.
I was just teasing. Your last post sounded like you wanted the run-up to go higher. Sitting on a couple of shorts, I'd kind of like to see 2730 or so before day's end.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #41,233
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:23am Oct 23, 2008 9:23am
Quoting SunTrader
If you don't mind me asking what are your anchoring points for fib extension??

In those charts you see a blue standard Bollinger band (period 20, deviation 20) and a green inner Bollinger band (period 10, deviation 1.5). The fibonacci extension was measured across the pinch of the green Bollinger band. I have set my fib ext. tool so that is all I have to do, and the tool draws the extension levels both upwards and downwards. Normally, you will have to apply the measured extension to the lower pinch point to get the downward extensions to draw, and apply it to the top pinch point if you want the upward levels drawn.
  • #41,234
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:27am Oct 23, 2008 9:27am
Quoting acumen
Hit the Pivot Point... then... boink.
...
m
Acumen,

When trading around the PP for this pair, what kind of SL do you give to make it's truly S/R but also ensure good MM? Thanks.
  • #41,235
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:28am Oct 23, 2008 9:28am
Quoting SpecialEd
I was just teasing. Your last post sounded like you wanted the run-up to go higher. Sitting on a couple of shorts, I'd kind of like to see 2730 or so before day's end.

I'd like to see it drop too. In fact i'd like to see it form a 5wave count on 5m to 1.2730.
  • #41,236
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:29am Oct 23, 2008 9:29am
Quoting TradeWell
My understanding about basic EW is that either 1, 3, or 5 can be longest then the other two remaining segments should be about of equal length. But again, my disclaimer is that I have not studied it in depth!
Well I have learned that there are no absolutes in EW. Most will tell you there are but try applying that to the markets long enough. Just like any technique EW is not 100% fool-proof. Price in the end does not know it should move in exact waves to comply to some theory or RSI reading etc etc.

Having said that though, the theory is, any wave can be the longest but Wave 3 cannot be the shortest. So if Wave 1 is longest, Wave 5 has to the shortest, or vice versa if Wave 5 is longest Wave 1 is the shortest. And if Wave 3 is longest either Wave 1 or 5 will be shortest.
  • #41,237
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:32am Oct 23, 2008 9:32am
New Intraday Update:
EUR/USD Buy near 1.2805
GBP/USD Buy near 1.6083
AUD/USD Buy near 0.6603
NZD/USD Buy near 0.5853

USD/CAD Selling since 1.2730
USD/CHF Sell near 1.1657
USD/JPY sell near 98.01
{Promotion Removed}
  • #41,238
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:32am Oct 23, 2008 9:32am
Quoting PipPilot
Acumen,

When trading around the PP for this pair, what kind of SL do you give to make it's truly S/R but also ensure good MM? Thanks.
Usually never more than 20 PIPS.

I believe my stop on that last move was above .2900... a psych level and I was hoping out of reach of the stop hunters.

Mike

PS - Each trade is less than one percent... about half actually.
  • #41,239
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:35am Oct 23, 2008 9:35am
Quoting SeaPip
Accumen, may I ask do you use Midnight EST to calculate your pivots????
I thought I saw an earlier post that he uses 5PM ET. I have changed my pivot time to that and have found a greater level of accuracy. Like just a bit ago when price bounced within 1 pip of my PP at 2890 and then found support near the mid-point pivot at 2796.
  • #41,240
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:39am Oct 23, 2008 9:39am
Isn't the hourly showing bearish candles now?
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