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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #6,961
  • Feb 23, 2007 1:47pm Feb 23, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting cesarnc
Interesting how the price is holding.

If Bush strikes Iran during the weekend, I'll get very angry. If not, I'm afraid of the a possible gap.
I think it is interesting but not strange. Sometimes traders try to find fundamental reason for an upward move, while there may not be an apparent reason. Or may be there is some reason but not obvious.

Anyway, I think the next couple of day will see a continuation of the bullish trend that just started "today".
  • #6,962
  • Feb 23, 2007 2:38pm Feb 23, 2007 2:38pm
This thread as of late is looking like it should be moved to the comedy section (is there such a thing?) or beginner's section.
  • #6,963
  • Feb 23, 2007 2:59pm Feb 23, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting ktrade
This thread as of late is looking like it should be moved to the comedy section (is there such a thing?) or beginner's section.
Fine by me...

The other one is making such good calls lately. But in the end of the posts there's always a "still waiting for clear signal".

We do the same here with fun.

BTW, we're already been mentioned by "trash" over there

Fine by me, 2. None of them were long with all that Tech-bullshit while the trash here were profiting. Or at least, were aware of this.

Soon will come thousands of "reason-whys" Cable will drop hard next week. The classic whining please get back to me!!!!!

  • #6,964
  • Feb 23, 2007 3:05pm Feb 23, 2007 3:05pm
Hey don't get me wrong here, ok?

I think that Elliot Waves is a very useful tool to describe what happened 300 pips ago.

Hope they're working on a "time machine" now to complete the job.

Same for fibo, that stands for Fibonacci's RETRACEMENT.

Retracement!!! It means a few pips out of a 120+ pips day. And didn't work out that well those last two days...
  • #6,965
  • Feb 23, 2007 3:29pm Feb 23, 2007 3:29pm
Quoting cesarnc
Interesting how the price is holding. No retracement means no one is taking profit out of this move up, therefore there's more to come on Monday.

I'm not leaving a long position open due to my broker's policy, that would trigger my SL at open price by Asian open. If Asia gaps to the downside (as it did on the upside last Sunday/Monday), I'll be dead meat.

Too crazy a week and a Friday as to gamble during the weekend

If Bush strikes Iran during the weekend, I'll get very angry. If not, I'm afraid of the a possible gap.
The 4hour chart is shaping up nicely for another long on Monday - See attached...
Attached Image
  • #6,966
  • Feb 23, 2007 3:35pm Feb 23, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting goonergonebad
The 4hour chart is shaping up nicely for another long on Monday - See attached...
This is what I like. Price action. Clear chart, no B.S.

After a "round" shape like that we've seen some powerful rocket shooting Cable way up high before. Might do the same on Monday. I'm long at 1pip above Frankfurt open on Monday
  • #6,967
  • Feb 23, 2007 3:37pm Feb 23, 2007 3:37pm
Long will I go!!!!! As long as my analysis says so for confirmation.

Quoting goonergonebad
The 4hour chart is shaping up nicely for another long on Monday - See attached...
  • #6,968
  • Feb 23, 2007 4:04pm Feb 23, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting ashoksagar
Still long. Added and now stop to b/e +10 on nett.
Holding the long over the weekend. Will close around the low 97's.
  • #6,969
  • Feb 23, 2007 8:50pm Feb 23, 2007 8:50pm
Quoting Traex
It's being squeezed like a sandwich now, once it breaks out it'll fart a tomahawk for 500 pips.
Looks like it's started; 500 pips anyone?
Tra-X
  • #6,970
  • Feb 24, 2007 2:34am Feb 24, 2007 2:34am
This move was a clear expectance on the weekly trend
My vote is for a bearish g/u next week.
The up position was required for a good down for next week. The daily is becoming over bought and there is a nice formation on weekly.
If the words of cheeney werent speculated upon, we would have only gone 1/2 the way yesterday and then started on the down.

Its the weekend, serious investors have time to look over the news and get a clearer picture (at the least the ones i know). Expect a possible stab at the highs again.. There is room for 9700 max. The res up there is huge and If you look at the last time these prices were hit, we got a 200 pip short the day after.
9500 by end tuesday if not monday.
  • #6,971
  • Feb 24, 2007 7:02am Feb 24, 2007 7:02am
Hi Takisd,

Agreed, stochastics look overbought on the dailys but they did also mid Nov 06 & mid Jan 07. That's why I don't take a blind bit of notice of them because as a trend starts, it can stay overbought for 500 pips or more.

I managed to catch over 750 pips in Nov & just under 300 on the January move.

Of course it may well reverse Monday or Tuesday - anything could happen & usually does but to me at least, overbought or oversold is only an indication and I certainly wouldn't place a trade on it.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Takisd
This move was a clear expectance on the weekly trend
My vote is for a bearish g/u next week.
The up position was required for a good down for next week. The daily is becoming over bought and there is a nice formation on weekly.
If the words of cheeney werent speculated upon, we would have only gone 1/2 the way yesterday and then started on the down.

Its the weekend, serious investors have time to look over the news and get a clearer picture (at the least the ones i know). Expect a possible stab at the highs again.. There is room for 9700 max. The res up there is huge and If you look at the last time these prices were hit, we got a 200 pip short the day after.
9500 by end tuesday if not monday.
Attached Image
  • #6,972
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:31am Feb 24, 2007 9:31am
There is more than stochastic to tell an overbought market. As all indicators are technically delayed. You need to look at volume, momentum and the lots. You will also notice that the new money into the buy position are only followers. I.E the simplemen who are there for banks to ruin.

I don't want to preach my point. I am just giving my opinion. Overbought doesn't give added pressure. It is not a holiday time right now, so the market will move as per the money put into it. The moves will not be over exagerated and will be true and to the point.
I was waiting for this move up on thursday. It started. There is 3 minor and 1 major level between now and 9700, in my opinion there is no reason to long fundamentally either. So, this up move could be long term short profit taking in a sense. And would bring us for a fresh short. Which in my opinion is now, and/or 15-20 pips up. With 200-300 pip targets.
  • #6,973
  • Feb 24, 2007 10:20am Feb 24, 2007 10:20am
Quoting Takisd
This move was a clear expectance on the weekly trend
My vote is for a bearish g/u next week.
The up position was required for a good down for next week. The daily is becoming over bought and there is a nice formation on weekly.
If the words of cheeney werent speculated upon, we would have only gone 1/2 the way yesterday and then started on the down.

Its the weekend, serious investors have time to look over the news and get a clearer picture (at the least the ones i know). Expect a possible stab at the highs again.. There is room for 9700 max. The res up there is huge and If you look at the last time these prices were hit, we got a 200 pip short the day after.
9500 by end tuesday if not monday.
Stochs above 85 actually show that there could be "extended" new buyers coming in, hence higher prices soon.

The first date,time that USD selloff might pause is Tuesday, 8:30 EST. USD is only backed by now declining Real Estate market, and Consumer spending. TIC reports, real estate health, and consumer spending will direct the USD progress. All are currently USD negative, and USD selloff will continue on Monday, an on Tuesday, until Tuesday 8:30 EST. I expect the house market to get worse, and consumer spending to decrease. Until all forthcoming news are digested, between Tuesday and Friday, USD pairs might become rangebound. The USD selloff should resume thereafter, until mid March, which will coinside with Gold taking out previous 20 year high, at 728.

GBP/USD is in an upward channel between 1.92 - 2.02 since late 2006.
  • #6,974
  • Feb 24, 2007 1:33pm Feb 24, 2007 1:33pm
Quoting Takisd
There is more than stochastic to tell an overbought market. As all indicators are technically delayed. You need to look at volume, momentum and the lots. You will also notice that the new money into the buy position are only followers. I.E the simplemen who are there for banks to ruin.

I don't want to preach my point. I am just giving my opinion. Overbought doesn't give added pressure. It is not a holiday time right now, so the market will move as per the money put into it. The moves will not be over exagerated and will be true and to the point.
I was waiting for this move up on thursday. It started. There is 3 minor and 1 major level between now and 9700, in my opinion there is no reason to long fundamentally either. So, this up move could be long term short profit taking in a sense. And would bring us for a fresh short. Which in my opinion is now, and/or 15-20 pips up. With 200-300 pip targets.
Being a simple man, I trade what I see and I haven't seen massive buying volume - mainly range bound. However, I have seen a lot of evidence both technical and fundy based to suggest further buying in the short term with a potential drop back down possibly below 1.94 before a much stronger push back up towards 2.00 and possibly above. USD has been weak for some time now and unless interest rate is hiked will continue to be under selling pressure. I think the reversal will come possibly Wednesday or Thursday.
  • #6,975
  • Feb 25, 2007 1:07am Feb 25, 2007 1:07am
Here's a daily chart.

Red lines- long term support/resistance levels

Dotted lines- medium term supp/res levels

Following a double bounce off of the rising trendline, friday's candle managed to open and close above an important resistance level (1.9555). Further bullish action can be expected in the week to come.
Attached Image
  • #6,976
  • Feb 25, 2007 1:12am Feb 25, 2007 1:12am
4 hour chart

After the rejection of the 1.9660 level, we can expect a retest of the triangle, or even the long term resistance of 1.9555, before resuming the movement upwards.
Attached Image
  • #6,977
  • Feb 25, 2007 1:23am Feb 25, 2007 1:23am
Ideally, we would see a retracement to the .38 fib level of friday's candle coinciding with the upper triangle trendline before going long with the target of 1.9740. However, nothing is certain and we can't rule out that
A. price will ont retrace any further, and it will resume the uptrend on sunday
B. price fails to make any upward movement, and goes back to 1.9555
C. price is rejected at the 1.9660 resistance level

Any thoughts?
Let's wait and trade accordingly. Good luck!
Attached Image
  • #6,978
  • Feb 25, 2007 1:53am Feb 25, 2007 1:53am
Quoting goonergonebad
Being a simple man, I trade what I see and I haven't seen massive buying volume - mainly range bound. However, I have seen a lot of evidence both technical and fundy based to suggest further buying in the short term with a potential drop back down possibly below 1.94 before a much stronger push back up towards 2.00 and possibly above. USD has been weak for some time now and unless interest rate is hiked will continue to be under selling pressure. I think the reversal will come possibly Wednesday or Thursday.
FXSTREET analysis late Friday
Attached Image
  • #6,979
  • Feb 25, 2007 3:52pm Feb 25, 2007 3:52pm
The good of it is that we have to choose only betweewn two directions, up and down. Time will always take to the right, and I doubt that candles are able to pop out of the screen...

Not that this makes any prediction easy here...

Good week to all...

  • #6,980
  • Feb 25, 2007 6:48pm Feb 25, 2007 6:48pm
Quoting cesarnc
The good of it is that we have to choose only betweewn two directions, up and down. Time will always take to the right, and I doubt that candles are able to pop out of the screen...

Not that this makes any prediction easy here...

Good week to all...


May this week be better than last...at least for me and my whole 9 PIPS profit after being zig - zagged back and forth! The good news is we are out of the triangle so HOPEFULLY we will see a continued BULL rally to the 1.9700-1.9725 mark. Good luck to all!
Show me the PIPS!
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