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  • #38,221
  • Oct 8, 2008 5:53pm Oct 8, 2008 5:53pm
"removed"

too many secrets lies in this world
Money often costs too much...
  • #38,222
  • Oct 8, 2008 5:59pm Oct 8, 2008 5:59pm
Itīs amazing having liquidity problems with this F**** rain, donīt you think guys?
  • #38,223
  • Oct 8, 2008 6:14pm Oct 8, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting bigandrich
I'm confused as well. I thought his initial plan was to do exactly that. But with the update it makes it sound like hold the short for another 150 pips below 1.3611.

Ya but how far below 1.3611???...this may make me make my own analysis
  • #38,224
  • Oct 8, 2008 6:44pm Oct 8, 2008 6:44pm
hung up in a congestion zone right now. short term targets are the pivots for lack of any better ones... but I realize it could break north for a bit. it has ALOT of R levels to plow thru however. volatility is like that, so it's more about timing becuz with enough volatility, everyone is right at some point... but how bout that timing thing

long term targets are on a previous post. the previous low on the 6th actually came within 70 pips of that primary target at 3370 which converges with the 123% extension of the weekly swing fib on the fall from 6037 to 3880. That will be a tuff nut to crack, but I think we'll see the 138% ext as well at 3057.

That 1.30 level will be massive psych and tech level to break, so no sense thinkin too much about it yet imo.

current short is +100 from the big kahuna TL. Anybody else short that?
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #38,225
  • Oct 8, 2008 6:47pm Oct 8, 2008 6:47pm
decided to repost that long term chart since the last time I posted it was Oct 1..

I don't see any need to update anything at this point even tho alot has happened... only change is I see the lower 138% level as more likely now than I did before.

long term shorts are from 4086 and 4010.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #38,226
  • Oct 8, 2008 7:03pm Oct 8, 2008 7:03pm
Quoting ak4x
hung up in a congestion zone right now. short term targets are the pivots for lack of any better ones... but I realize it could break north for a bit. it has ALOT of R levels to plow thru however. volatility is like that, so it's more about timing becuz with enough volatility, everyone is right at some point... but how bout that timing thing

long term targets are on a previous post. the previous low on the 6th actually came within 70 pips of that primary target at 3370 which converges with the 123% extension of the weekly swing fib on the fall from 6037 to 3880. That will be a tuff nut to crack, but I think we'll see the 138% ext as well at 3057.

That 1.30 level will be massive psych and tech level to break, so no sense thinkin too much about it yet imo.

current short is +100 from the big kahuna TL. Anybody else short that?
I was scalping the top of the range today.

I had a gut feeling about the .3750 range topping out so I shorted it down.

As a matter of fact... I believe I called .3750 as the top of the run about an hour before it hit .3750. (Pure Luck)

Mike
  • #38,227
  • Oct 8, 2008 7:57pm Oct 8, 2008 7:57pm
Quoting acumen
I was scalping the top of the range today.

I had a gut feeling about the .3750 range topping out so I shorted it down.

As a matter of fact... I believe I called .3750 as the top of the run about an hour before it hit .3750. (Pure Luck)

Mike
I did the same.. made my day.. that shit was sketchy for a little bit though
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #38,228
  • Oct 8, 2008 7:59pm Oct 8, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
I did the same.. made my day.. that shit was sketchy for a little bit though
I would only take one position at a time because of it.

Strange day... but... who cares... it was a profitable one and nothing else matters.

  • #38,229
  • Oct 8, 2008 8:07pm Oct 8, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting acumen
I would only take one position at a time because of it.

Strange day... but... who cares... it was a profitable one and nothing else matters.

if only I had read your post and taken it into account. I wouldnt have taken the bad position.

oh well. time to make up ground again. already on my way.
  • #38,230
  • Oct 8, 2008 8:14pm Oct 8, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting ragu
Alg,

You might want to try a simple format such as:

Currency Pair: ( Input currency pair )
Position: ( Input whether you are: "Long" or "Short")
Entry: ( Input your entry price )
SL: (" " stop loss price )
TP: ( " " take profit price )

I think this might help clarify things a big.

Just my thoughts as you are a very good trader and it would be a loss to not be able to communicate your ideas clearly.
Sorry to chime in guys, but Algirdas is doing the thinking for us. At least we could maybe adapt to his style of communication and not coach him?

Algirdas, most of us are probably accustomed to your posts. The rest of us (newbies) can surely get there. Thanks a bunch.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #38,231
  • Oct 8, 2008 8:26pm Oct 8, 2008 8:26pm
do you want Algirdas to press the buy and sell button for you to.I am new to trading and learn more and more everyday but anyone can come in here and expect someone else to tell them everything to do to make money and is wrong!!!LEARN!!!! READ!!!! WATCH1111DEMO!!!!!!TRADE Algirdas is great and very helpfull but you still have know how hes getting there to be succesfull.. my 2 cents
  • #38,232
  • Oct 8, 2008 8:40pm Oct 8, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting traderathome
Looking at the Hr4 chart, the top of the range is void of all but wicks. On the Hr1 chart, we are trending solidly down now for 3 timeframes. But there is yet to be big volume to the downside, like there was upside volume at the end of the Asian and thru the Euro sessions. We are closing the US session just a handful of pips above midrange. The next session should be interesting. The price is high enough to allow the Asian session traders to smash it down 100 pips to the bottom of the previous Asian session.....so, they shouldn't feel like they have missed out on any good moves.

Since earlier posts, this has continued strongly to the downside, and could have lots more to go....but maybe with some "resting time" pullbacks interspersed. See before and now sets of H4 and H1 charts attached. This could easily go to the 162%, maybe even the 262% level, as shown on the current H1 chart fibonacci extension levels applied to the inner Bollinger band pinch. Just an opinion, but keep in mind that the longer term trend remains strongly down on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu hr4 #1 10-08-08.gif Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu hr1 #1 10-08-08.gif Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu hr4 #2 10-08-08.gif Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu hr1 #2 10-08-08.gif Size: 65 KB
  • #38,233
  • Edited Oct 9, 2008 12:50am Oct 8, 2008 8:49pm | Edited Oct 9, 2008 12:50am
If this confuses you, no worries, it confuses me too a little bit as well. Consider it a work in progress and please don't trade off it like I am. The targets are for my tests and could change or not trigger. I'll be happy to let you know if it pans out, and if it doesn't, I assume you'll be happy to let me... I'm currently waiting for the final cross on the slow_K to confirm. It's kissed a couple times, but then opens back up, so no short for now.

I realize my slow_k lags a bit at current settings, but I'm not ready to tweak it to be faster yet. I do have faster ones on my scalp charts, but the 20m signals my short term trend changes, so the current settings stay.

You can see the correlation between the fib levels on the slow_k and the turns on price. The ellipses just highlight the fib hi/lo's and the crossing points. You can see the 62% coming up repeatedly. I'm hoping to find an additional way to confirm confidence on short term trend changes that will produce enough pips to make it worthwhile.

I'll compare these results to my other indicators for reliability. Might turn out to be useless, but it's fun, and I always like to know why things work.

Comments welcome. Probably.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 20m slow_k fib save.png Size: 60 KB
FUBAR...
  • #38,234
  • Oct 8, 2008 8:56pm Oct 8, 2008 8:56pm
blah used wrong chart!.
anyways to repeat...for those of you wondering why the suddent break up consider this

earlier i mentioned market sentiment is 51% bullish...i still feel it is so. i also mentioned we broke out of the downwards channel we have been in since last tuesday. as i also always say...a retest of the breakout wall almost always happens. i believe we just have seen it. in my opinion we shall see a new high tonight...possibly 1.3800

as i always say though
DO NOT FOLLOW MY OBSERVATIONS AND TRADES BLINDLY....just use as a second opinion

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 39 KB
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #38,235
  • Oct 8, 2008 9:01pm Oct 8, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
I did the same.. made my day.. that shit was sketchy for a little bit though
I got short @ average price of 1.3742, closed 1/2 @ 1.3650, and the rest @ 1.3605. I have said it before...sell Euro rallies. If this thing goes where it looks like (eventually full retrace back to 1.16 area), there is a fortune to be made!
  • #38,236
  • Oct 8, 2008 9:02pm Oct 8, 2008 9:02pm
Quoting traderathome
Since earlier posts, this has continued strongly to the downside, and could have lots more to go....but maybe with some "resting time" pullbacks interspersed. See before and now sets of H4 and H1 charts attached. This could easily go to the 162%, maybe even the 262% level, as shown on the current H1 chart fibonacci extension levels applied to the inner Bollinger band pinch. Just an opinion, but keep in mind that the longer term trend remains strongly down on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts.

Ok, not much time since that post and the same hour timeframe brings us a solid pullback. See H4 and H1 charts attached.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu hr4 #3 10-08-08.gif Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu hr1 #3 10-08-08.gif Size: 64 KB
  • #38,237
  • Oct 8, 2008 9:03pm Oct 8, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting psiholog
blah used wrong chart!.
anyways to repeat...for those of you wondering why the suddent break up consider this

earlier i mentioned market sentiment is 51% bullish...i still feel it is so. i also mentioned we broke out of the downwards channel we have been in since last tuesday. as i also always say...a retest of the breakout wall almost always happens. i believe we just have seen it. in my opinion we shall see a new high tonight...possibly 1.3800

as i always say though
DO NOT FOLLOW MY OBSERVATIONS AND TRADES BLINDLY....just use as a second opinion

Attachment
I'm following a completely different chart but I completely agree with your statement. I've been a bear until today. Got out of my short at a nice profit and I'm now a bull.

The London open will be very interesting today.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #38,238
  • Oct 8, 2008 9:03pm Oct 8, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting psiholog
blah used wrong chart!.
anyways to repeat...for those of you wondering why the suddent break up consider this

earlier i mentioned market sentiment is 51% bullish...i still feel it is so. i also mentioned we broke out of the downwards channel we have been in since last tuesday. as i also always say...a retest of the breakout wall almost always happens. i believe we just have seen it. in my opinion we shall see a new high tonight...possibly 1.3800

as i always say though
DO NOT FOLLOW MY OBSERVATIONS AND TRADES BLINDLY....just use as a second opinion

Attachment
I see the same thing, and will buy soon as well. 3927 target
  • #38,239
  • Oct 8, 2008 9:21pm Oct 8, 2008 9:21pm
Quoting psiholog
blah used wrong chart!.
anyways to repeat...for those of you wondering why the suddent break up consider this

earlier i mentioned market sentiment is 51% bullish...i still feel it is so. i also mentioned we broke out of the downwards channel we have been in since last tuesday. as i also always say...a retest of the breakout wall almost always happens. i believe we just have seen it. in my opinion we shall see a new high tonight...possibly 1.3800

as i always say though
DO NOT FOLLOW MY OBSERVATIONS AND TRADES BLINDLY....just use as a second opinion

Attachment
OK, my young whiz, my opinion doesn't count for much, but I'm in agreement with you. Looks like a repeat of yesterday, where a lot of pips can be made on one long buy, supplemented by several rally sells. It wanna take you higher! If we're wrong, it's only money.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #38,240
  • Oct 8, 2008 9:23pm Oct 8, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting big_pipin
I see the same thing, and will buy soon as well. 3927 target
and if 3927, then why not 3987? It's a 38.2 fib.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
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