Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Well I am up 250 pips ( 291-41 ) this week so unless something dramatic happens with my indicators I am staying out for now. Wish I lived near a beach though!

I appreciate all the short term analysis on the two cable forums here. I try to analyze more from the basis of what different time frame traders are going to be thinking as to "get me in" and "get me out now" orders. All large runs are the result of liquidation (get me out now!) orders either as stop loss orders or trailing take profit orders. All the bear or bull has to do is initiate enuf movement to get into those stops. Cable is currently coiling in where traders up through daily are looking closely and pulling their stops in closer and closer. Right now 5m traders are long and 15m traders have short signals (looking at CCI and nice 123 pattern). Hourly traders are seeing a possible triple top (weaker) and braiding ma's which signal a break either way. 4hr traders may be sitting on the side until 9605 breaks long or 9535 short with the committed bulls/bears willing to add to their trades at either point making s/r strong at both ends hence a very tight range. Take it out to the daily charts and we are at short term ma resistance at our current levels with bears adding to their trades here and will continue to add out to 9625 area. On that triangle upper trendline these daily bears will now be trailing there s/l in closer and closer so hence the liquidation fuel for a rally sits somwhere just above. Daily bulls (long term traders) will be looking to add down in the 9440 area of ascending triangle trendline so unless they are going to make their assault today with a level of buying to take it all the way up through all the bears from all timeframe traders (excluding 5m which would be on their side) the path of least resistance appears to be down for today. 9535 is key support with liquidation stops below. Then the 9470/80 area with large stops below. Mixed in with that is the stop losses of the 5m traders in the 9550 area which will give a certain amount of additional down force. This is an intraday analysis.

On the daily chart I have attached (you should save it and open with Picture Viewer so you can blow it up) you can also see that the long term trend line is getting closer and closer. The ma's are setting up to converge if we continue this sideways action for another month which is a possibility as long as the carry trades keep increasing. Repatriation of yen does not start until April. If the trend is your friend the eventual explosion will have to be to the upside unless euro falls. If we make contact with the long term trendline I will be buying with both hands. We could get there just by continuing this sideways movement through March. If that is the case we will be down to an extremely tight range. Again, possible.

Sorry this is so long but I feel if you do not analyze what all the different timeframe traders are seeing you will not be able to do anything but scalp.

Sorry attachment didn't take.

Thanks Bradone. Just didn't like "this sideways movement through March".

Overall market is rangebouds since December. USD went up in the first week this year and Cable went up on the Jan's rate hike to fall on the Feb's no-hike. A few Yen speculation here and there before G7 and this is pretty much it in the land of the currencies...

Euro being ass-kicked up and down only, lackluster.

As March approaches and USD is not making its way up (from the big fall late 06) I don't know what is in the cards for 2007. Maybe a little rush by US elections period or a possible strike in Iran.

On smaller timeframe, a rate hike here and there may be a solution to drag us out of this rangebounds. Euro or Cable, I don't care. Will just jump in.

Here is the my hourly chart which I actually view on 15m timeframe (except once an hour or if move starts). The multiple timeframe ma's locates s/r points for the different timeframe traders and helps identify where further stops will be if they are broken. It is all about liquidation fuel for runs and identifying where it will be. If you know it you can decide if the order flow is going to push it on through into new stops. Again, if you save the picture and blow it up to screen size it is easier to view.

I don't know whether it's true or not, but lately daily cable chart has so many dojis. Is it a sign of trend reversal in larger tf (like weekly or monthly)? Monthly trend (since 1.36 few years ago) might be ending since a 5-wave sequence has formed (1.36 - 1.99, ~6300 pips wow). I'm still new to forex, so I haven't had any experience of big trend reversal like that before.
Inputs from senior traders here are very much appreciated. Thanks in advance.

get ready I feel something coming in the next hour. LONG!!
Not a trade recommendation and aslo waiting for it break certain levels also.

This time I'm on it.

Shorts are feeling the pain now. Stops being taken out. My stop on the long is at b/e +1 now.

Catch it for the ride up my friend!! Even if does retrace I still feel a big movement sun night mon morning up near the high 9600's.

Hey guys.. I return..

Good call earlier cesar..

now on the 30mins, we have higher highs... its a LONG day me thinks.. which with some poor US data could be nice too :-)

BTW, I am long for the low 97ers, will hold over the weekend if necessary.....

Me too. Tight stop and purely gambling the US session now...

TP above 9650 in case of something weird... But if it stalls at 9620 I'm out.

And if it drops to 9550 I'm calling Johhnie Walker.

It is going to take sometime at 9600 until henrycarol run out of his selling tickets....

YOu will have to prize the Johnnie Walker out of my hands if it drops to 9550...

All the other mixed pairs are in agreement at the mo, I see it moving up for finally some nice profit on the last 2 days..

In for a penny, in for a Pound!!!

This is not that bad an idea.

Guess I'm gonna trade 1hr/4hr pin-bars only during these choppy days... I've lost a great deal y'day for not doing it at the bottom 9460.... Making some cash today by trading it...

hello heloo New York

I think that its safe to say that it has most definitely broken out of the 30min 1 month bear channel.. It should be plain sailing from here onwards

It has to go above 9650 and hold above 9635 to make me thin that. It is a strong channel there and a big bounce at those levels are not out of the cards.

Well, It's not cable if at least doesn't touch Mr 9634 for a classic 100pip day

Just realised that there isnt any news from the US..

Lets hope they all just get to work and shit themselves, cancelling their stops.. and helping in the cable bull war!!

knowing the cable, it will still have a jump at 1.30 lol.. just for the sake of it..