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Zeusjoes Market-Neutral Hedge Strategy

  • #661
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:25pm Sep 5, 2008 4:25pm
Hi, Magictrader, hi all,
From this thread(and the other) i'm using the same indi as you, combined with another trustfully indi that i found somewhere(don't remember where), it's called Fisher m11....
I have made over 25 transactions this week on EURUSD (with Swing Man Neutral oscilator, your settings, M5) and EURAUD (with Fisher_m11, default settings, H1), all of them positive (100%) , both in my live and demo accounts. I don't use too often candlestick patterns, if the trade goes against me a number of pips(at least 100 pips/or at first reversal 2nd signal) i average my position with double lots. But i don't know if was 1 or 2 trades that we're going wrong at the beggining.
I'm attaching the indi,
AND A SCREENSHOT OF MY LIVE ACCOUNT PLATFORM AT CLOSING TIME (this will go to IBFX too for explanations).Please notice the huge discrepancies between prices of the open trades and prices from the market view....Ex. GBPJPY market view 189.10, GBPJY open trade 187.58...?????????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fraud ibfx 06sep2008.gif Size: 61 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Fisher_m11.mq4   6 KB | 799 downloads
I don't say
  • #662
  • Sep 17, 2008 3:51am Sep 17, 2008 3:51am
Dear Magictrader,

How is your method holding up? Any additional inputs you're looking at?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #663
  • Edited 3:05pm Sep 20, 2008 2:27pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Magictrader,

How is your method holding up? Any additional inputs you're looking at?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
Hi,
yes, there are some inputs which works very good.
Now when reversal formation appears TP=30 pips after entry on next H1 candle EU. Then if price goes in opposite direction about -15 pips then I add another lot. Then my TP=30 pips from average entry price, and SL=30 pips from average entry price.
Trade time is from London open to about half of US session (London close +1 hour to +2 hours).

I've done 3 weeks bactesting and 2 weeks of real forward testing and results are very good. Accuracy = about 90%. Maximal drawdown in this hours = -90 pips (-60 +30 -60).
If you want to play every signal, then maxDD=-240 pips (-60 -60 -60 -60). 4 bad trades in a row (but that was last friday, day befor all this bad news, so this could be the reason). Average daily signals =1,5 signal per day.

In this strategy I see very big potential when market back to normal conditions, but even in this high volatility period this strategy works ok with positive balance.
  • #664
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:56pm Sep 20, 2008 5:56pm
Dear Magictrader,

In your opinion, what is the ideal timeframe chart for the best combination of accuracy and trade signal frequency?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #665
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:05pm Sep 20, 2008 6:05pm
In this strategy we use candlestick patterns for confirmation, so
smaller TF = less accuracy
larger TF = better accuracy (not H4 because in every time zone they look different).

I like H1 candles because they give reliable signals, nice reward and we can look at charts only once at few minutes befor H1 close. For me this is ok, because of only 1 to 2 trades per day with nice profit.
  • #666
  • Sep 21, 2008 11:11am Sep 21, 2008 11:11am
Quoting magictrader
In this strategy we use candlestick patterns for confirmation, so
smaller TF = less accuracy
larger TF = better accuracy (not H4 because in every time zone they look different).

I like H1 candles because they give reliable signals, nice reward and we can look at charts only once at few minutes befor H1 close. For me this is ok, because of only 1 to 2 trades per day with nice profit.
Which patterns do you use, other than Evening and Morning Stars?
  • #667
  • Sep 21, 2008 11:32am Sep 21, 2008 11:32am
and piercing pattern and dark cloud cover.
  • #668
  • Edited 3:27am Sep 22, 2008 2:55am | Edited 3:27am
Hi, this is example from todays morning. Two good trades in a row with 30pips and 30pips x2 lots profit.

Hope it is easy to understand what I mean .
Of course spread was first over +2 and then going down but price going up so there were divergence between spread and price. That's why go short. I saw also that in trend following formations confirmation from spread is good when the value of spread is about zero.
But at the beginning it's easier to play only one side of the market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: explanation.JPG Size: 142 KB
  • #669
  • Sep 22, 2008 3:37am Sep 22, 2008 3:37am
And this is how it looks on spread chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spread_chart.JPG Size: 118 KB
  • #670
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:05am Sep 23, 2008 3:05am
Hello Magictrader,

I use eSignal and not MT4. Is there a way of duplicating the spread function on eSignal: perhaps dividing the EURUSD by the USDCHF (or subtracting one from the other) and then sticking BBs around that?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #671
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:34am Sep 23, 2008 4:34am
Hi,
I don't use on my real account MT4 also, I've got DealBook360. Oscillator works on one of demo MT4 accounts. Download some MT4 demo and add this indicator.
  • #672
  • Sep 23, 2008 11:05am Sep 23, 2008 11:05am
what is a good setting for neutral price osc ? The setting given previously makes my mt4 hang. I guess than period have to be like around 40 in order not to hang for my computer. Any suggestion for the setting ?
  • #673
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:35pm Sep 23, 2008 4:35pm
Dear Magictrader,

Am I wrong in thinking that you actually have a good trading system here? Am I wrong to think that you seem to have your act together?

Lenoxer
  • #674
  • Edited 4:08am Sep 24, 2008 3:42am | Edited 4:08am
Hi,

I think that this system works very well, because it connects few ways of trading. If we know that pair trading (market neutral) works because there is some spread between two highly correlated currencies, stocks, or something else and we enter the market when spread is big and start to reverse. We never know is it that big that couldn't be bigger. But for reverse with high probability we can use candlestick formations, that's why I think this system works very well.
Big spread + reverse confirmation.
  • #675
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:16am Oct 1, 2008 3:16am
Hi,

because now I can't trade with that strategy on H1 (another year on Universtiy) so I'll try smaller version with M15 TF (I can trade on afternoons). Everything is 4 times smaller, so H1 to M15, 200 M5 period Neutral Price to 50 M5 period (250 M1 should be the same but slower work and could crash MT4). Also TP and SL are smaller (but maybe not four times, TP = 10 to 15 pips.

But also there should be more signals, so this strategy could be more profitable then the previous one. If the accuracy will be the same (H1 has about 90% accuracy). But I'm also waiting for normal volatility, 100 - 120 pips a day, not 300 - 400 pips .
  • #676
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:36am Oct 1, 2008 3:36am
Quoting magictrader
Hi,

because now I can't trade with that strategy on H1 (another year on Universtiy) so I'll try smaller version with M15 TF (I can trade on afternoons). Everything is 4 times smaller, so H1 to M15, 200 M5 period Neutral Price to 50 M5 period (250 M1 should be the same but slower work and could crash MT4). Also TP and SL are smaller (but maybe not four times, TP = 10 to 15 pips.

But also there should be more signals, so this strategy could be more profitable then the previous one. If the accuracy will be the same (H1 has about 90% accuracy). But I'm also waiting for normal volatility, 100 - 120 pips a day, not 300 - 400 pips .
magictrader,
Please keep us updated how it goes with this adjustment in time frames that you are making.

Bruce
  • #677
  • Oct 1, 2008 10:51am Oct 1, 2008 10:51am
No problem,

I've take smaller time frame because when I'm not at home on H1 appears only 1 or 2 signals per day so I can miss it. With smaller TF there will be more signals, so when I'm at home I can trade it, with some backtests it looks ok. But still volatility is high so it is very difficult to set appropriate SL and TP.
  • #678
  • Oct 4, 2008 9:18am Oct 4, 2008 9:18am
Dear friends:
I still can not understand what is the entry rule. couldyou please write something or post some charts.
regards
I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #679
  • Oct 5, 2008 2:54am Oct 5, 2008 2:54am
Dear Magictrader,

So, how's it going? Wishing you well.

Lenoxer
  • #680
  • Oct 5, 2008 7:07am Oct 5, 2008 7:07am
Hi,

everything looks ok, but still volatility is unpredictible so it's hard to adjust TP and SL. Now I can trade only on thursdays, so I'll forward test it on real account only in this days and I'll post my statements.
For now I'll use TP and SL = 15 pips.
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