DislikedPsiholog, I was encouraged to see you make that step to continue. To me it's not about psychology but rather the plight of the human spirit. That you have exemplified greatly. Post on my friend. P.S. Lourdes, man you put yourself on the wrong list.. Acumen's shit list...Ignored
- #36,862
- Oct 3, 2008 7:27pm Oct 3, 2008 7:27pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,709 Posts
Funny thing, caught a little heat from that move. Yes it did go up another 60 pips... Yes, I did add to that position again along the way. Yes.. it did drop back to 38, then back to 3890, then to 3700.
Yes... every short closed in profit. No... I don't post every move I make here or show everything that's on my charts. That would be confusing to all and stupid of me. I show what needs to be seen to communicate the point I'm posting. If whatever I'm saying doesn't ring right on it's own merits... no worries. But there's no sense trying to dazzle anyone with HS either. I don't lose sleep over anyone's opinion, and trust no one loses sleep over mine.
I have 3 running shorts averaging 25% of original lot size currently totaling a'rd 650-800 pips on EU and EJ. They will remain open over the weekend. Unless there's an opening gap up of 200 pips or more on Sunday, they're safe. All others closed in profit except for a few insignificant strategy tweak test losers over the last couple days that had tighter stops.
Sharing knowledge which is fun, is different from spoon feeding, which is not. This thread is somewhere in the middle I guess, and that's OK usually. I've been there and done that already with my kids, and their "mommy" helped while working as well. So to hear that kind of thing, among other things like my country and it's leaders, present or future, frequently being denigrated and ridiculed by anonymous mouths is something I don't need to be in proximity to, to trade. We all have that privilege becuz too many paid too much, but with that privilege comes responsibility. Responsibility usually comes with maturity, and I'll just leave it at that.
I'm taking a forum break for awhile. No, I haven't blown my account. Simply managing my exposure to the drama, tantrums, hormone dumps, and related issues dominating this thread lately. Think of it as hitting my SL before my TP. EM along with MM. (Emotion management/money management)
I guess people find fulfillment in odd places... What I was looking for was yakking trades with trading buds who hopefully don't agree with everything I think and enjoy a good guffaw now and then. Keeps me sharper. I like sharp.
There's more could be said... but sometimes less is more.
Careful trades all.
Mike
- #36,865
- Oct 4, 2008 2:58am Oct 4, 2008 2:58am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,272 Posts
its just money
its frustrating as hell. 1 pip cost me 60 pips which closed out my short which was ultimately going to be right. ugh
just general weekend notes, for placing of stop losses:
-brokers can easily take retailers out since they know where majority place their stops.
-majority will place their stops at round figures--the 5s or the 0s. (it's a psychological thing.)
-so, assuming you called the direction rightly, for a trade to survive the whiplash/sudden spike by which the big boys shake out the small 'uns, (this following being for a short) you need to place your stop:
a) above the channel top
b) above the current resistance level
c) above the usual shadow of the candle
d) not at a round figure.
an EU candle's shadow is typically ~30 pips (increase if you're playing the news).
So using friday's data as an eg:
if current resistance/pivot is at 1.3849, channel top is ~1.3897 (0600 EST), then shadow of candle gives 1.3927. in which case, your stop needs to be placed minimum at 1.3941.
which would have enabled shorts to survive any shakeups yesterday.
other technical notes:
-EU appears to respect the midpivots while UJ respects the pivots.
-the stop loss value will change as the day proceeds, upon proof of direction.
edit: oh, and all this has to be fulfilled within the "max 3% of an account in a trade" MM rule.
what do you people think is the long term trend of the eur/usd. thanks
Maarten
By the way, this is the trendline I am talking about!
- #36,870
- Oct 4, 2008 6:28am Oct 4, 2008 6:28am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Euro bull market will continue. Technical the dollar looks about to break the Euro long term trendline, but don't forget that long term trends are about fundamentals. I read somewhere the other day that 85% of the economic news that comes out is bullish for euro and bearish for the us dollar. Soooo... what is going here? Is the Fed selling it's euro reserves in hope to break the trendline?
Maarten
By the way, this is the trendline I am talking about!
Attachment
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
Euro bull market will continue. Technical the dollar looks about to break the Euro long term trendline, but don't forget that long term trends are about fundamentals. I read somewhere the other day that 85% of the economic news that comes out is bullish for euro and bearish for the us dollar. Soooo... what is going here? Is the Fed selling it's euro reserves in hope to break the trendline?
Maarten
By the way, this is the trendline I am talking about!
Attachment
What fundamentals? When you speak of fundamentals, do you mean debt?
There is no fundamental analysis in forex, only a poker game with the CBs.
There are interest rate cycles, interest rate differentials, CB intervention, etc. and many more variables here.... not just deficits.
- #36,872
- Oct 4, 2008 7:05am Oct 4, 2008 7:05am
- | Joined Dec 2005 | Status: It's only money | 1,413 Posts
TRADE FOR SWAP
- #36,875
- Oct 4, 2008 8:05am Oct 4, 2008 8:05am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #36,877
- Oct 4, 2008 9:49am Oct 4, 2008 9:49am
- | Joined Dec 2005 | Status: It's only money | 1,413 Posts
TRADE FOR SWAP
- #36,880
- Oct 4, 2008 10:11am Oct 4, 2008 10:11am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Live long and have fun :) | 1,386 Posts
There is possibility that ECB will lower the interest rates of 50pb till end of the year. So USD could get even more strenght.
On the path to Enrichment.