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USD/CHF

  • #201
  • Feb 21, 2007 6:15am Feb 21, 2007 6:15am
Shard,

I find that these levels will correspond to many commonly followed measurements. Fibos, MA's, etc. The reason is pretty simple. Other traders are making decisions based on these and they become levels of supply vs demand.

Quoting ~Shard~
Interesting that you cite 2407 as a point of interest - 2427 is actually the 89 day moving average and would definitely be a key support/resistance level. So from both a technical perspective and a "river" perspective you appear to be right on the money.
  • #202
  • Feb 21, 2007 6:22am Feb 21, 2007 6:22am
Heres a Wed morning update. You can see that price has pushed right up to River. A good place to possibly place new shorts as described in the above post.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-21-2007.PNG
  • #203
  • Feb 21, 2007 9:22am Feb 21, 2007 9:22am
I entered short at 2400, after the push this morning following the US news. With so much resistance built up around 2415 in the M30-Dailies, I don't foresee it going anywhere but down. I have my S/L at 2420.

Thoughts?
  • #204
  • Feb 21, 2007 10:05am Feb 21, 2007 10:05am
I think this is a good strategy. Good luck to you on it.

Quoting AlphaPip
I entered short at 2400, after the push this morning following the US news. With so much resistance built up around 2415 in the M30-Dailies, I don't foresee it going anywhere but down. I have my S/L at 2420.

Thoughts?
  • #205
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:03am Feb 21, 2007 11:03am
Just noticed a thread stating that the EUR/USD is ready to break a H and S pattern favoring the $. Since the Euro and Swissy typically run invert of each other, I have some fears. Still holding true below the resistance right now, but watching closely.
  • #206
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:07am Feb 21, 2007 11:07am
If you think your wrong, then your wrong. If you think your right, then your right. Keep worrying about what others think and you will surely be wrong.

Quoting AlphaPip
Just noticed a thread stating that the EUR/USD is ready to break a H and S pattern favoring the $. Since the Euro and Swissy typically run invert of each other, I have some fears. Still holding true below the resistance right now, but watching closely.
  • #207
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:12am Feb 21, 2007 11:12am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
If you think your wrong, then your wrong. If you think your right, then your right. Keep worrying about what others think and you will surely be wrong.
Well said... Good point.
  • #208
  • Feb 21, 2007 12:13pm Feb 21, 2007 12:13pm
Come next week you will dancing in the streets with that 1.2400 short on the USD/CHF... the games have only just begun... the USD is done, it's cooked for now.
  • #209
  • Feb 21, 2007 6:27pm Feb 21, 2007 6:27pm
Here are the 2-22 levels for swissy. I am currently short since last Friday. Unfortunately a 68 point gain has come and gone.

I will continue to hold short while we trade below River which comes in at 2412 today. Price needs to move down through the 2374 level soon though. I continue to target 2275, then 2177.

Settling above the River level, would temporarily cancel my downward bias.

Good luck

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-22-2007.PNG
  • #210
  • Feb 22, 2007 6:52pm Feb 22, 2007 6:52pm
Levels for 2-23 Still short.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr...sdchf_2-23.PNG
  • #211
  • Feb 22, 2007 10:11pm Feb 22, 2007 10:11pm
I just wanted to extend my thanks once again DRT - your time and effort in helping people out and providing this information is very much appreciated. I have subscribed to all of your threads and enjoy reading your updates and following along. I am new to all of this, but will hopefully start trading based on your data in the upcoming weeks once I have become more comfortable.

Thank you.
  • #212
  • Feb 23, 2007 8:41am Feb 23, 2007 8:41am
Here is the 60M River chart as of 9:00. If we continue to move down, expect some stalling and a possible change of direction just below 2340. Next target would be 2275.

Otherwise, I would now cover on a move back thru 2373.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-23-2007.PNG
  • #213
  • Feb 25, 2007 1:55pm Feb 25, 2007 1:55pm
Here are the River Levels for 2-26.

I hope everyone had a good weekend and was able to spend some time planning. My advice this week is to be nimble. I always like to keep an eye on the dollar index when looking at the USDCHF movements and we are at a major inflection point in many pairs this week. It may be another dull listless week, but I think otherwise.

I hope some of you who are interested in learning more about value trading have taken a look at the Monthly Price Distribution Section of the website. You should definitely review where this pair is at right now. You should always trade with a view of the Ocean when River Trading.

You may recall we are short from last week at 2378. I continue to look for 2275, then 2233, and 2177. Any move back up throuh River with a daily close above and I would cover.

The short term key is the 2812 area. It has the potential to reverse trading back toward River so do not be surprised if a bounce occurs in this area. A move below here would indicate that our lower levels may materialize.

Good luck this week.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-26-2007.PNG
  • #214
  • Feb 25, 2007 2:05pm Feb 25, 2007 2:05pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
The short term key is the 2812 area. It has the potential to reverse trading back toward River so do not be surprised if a bounce occurs in this area. A move below here would indicate that our lower levels may materialize.
I assume you mean 2312.

Thanks once again for the info!
  • #215
  • Feb 25, 2007 6:56pm Feb 25, 2007 6:56pm
Yes. Too many numbers too think about.

Quoting ~Shard~
I assume you mean 2312.

Thanks once again for the info!
  • #216
  • Feb 27, 2007 6:23am Feb 27, 2007 6:23am
Here are the Daily River Levels for 2-27

I am going to post the updates this way from now on. It is much less time consuming for me. We can continue to discuss them here as usual.

Good luck
  • #217
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:11am Feb 27, 2007 8:11am
Does it feel like Euro, CHF, and yen need to blowoff some steam?
61% retrace from the latest charge?
  • #218
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:14am Feb 27, 2007 8:14am
Be more specific, what do you mean and do you need help with the levels that I posted for today?

or are you just thinking that they are done moving up??? If so, why?

Quoting irusoh
Does it feel like Euro, CHF, and yen need to blowoff some steam?
61% retrace from the latest charge?
  • #219
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:25am Feb 27, 2007 8:25am
Maybe it's just too intense for me, but I feel that maybe a retracement back to intermedatte levels is in order that is euro to 3162, chf to 2275, jpy to 119.13 before moving toawrds thwe zone again.
  • #220
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:29am Feb 27, 2007 8:29am
Okay. No problem. Don't do anything without the confidence level. As I have said, if this is your hunch, then honor it and respect it. Wait for things to calm down and re-evaluate. Good choice.

Quoting irusoh
Maybe it's just too intense for me, but I feel that maybe a retracement back to intermedatte levels is in order that is euro to 3162, chf to 2275, jpy to 119.13 before moving toawrds thwe zone again.
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