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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #11,861
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:05pm Sep 20, 2008 7:05pm
Quoting sivaji
Ash can u post a link to equity market... thanks
Just follow the Japanese Nikkie (futures included) and the S&P (futures included).
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #11,862
  • Sep 21, 2008 10:02pm Sep 21, 2008 10:02pm
I've been following the USD / JPY for a few years. This is my first FXfactory post and first currency post ever. I've been a currency trader for a bit and a commodity trader for much longer. I've been out of equities for a very long time.

The following are my thoughts for the USD / JPY in the coming weeks. I am looking for feedback.

SHORT SELLING LIMITS
The USA (plus UK and AUS) limiting short selling should be driving the USA and global equity markets up. People need to cover their shorts. Currently, where the USA equity markets go, so goes this pair. In other words, with the USA equity markets strengthening, so will the USD to the JPY. In my opinion, there could still be a nice rally ahead of us in the equity markets (and a rally in the USD/JPY) as people are forced to cover their shorts.

I haven't seen much of a link between USD/JPY and the Nikkie. If I am not seeing something I should, someone, please tell me I am wrong.

USA ELECTION
The USA has a presidential election coming up. I think there may be pressure to keep the dollar healthy through the election.

BOJ SELLS USD
Less enlightening to this pair is the BOJ's planned sale of $60 billion. This is a first in history that the BOJ is to be selling dollars.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...T5859320080918

At face value, this is a currency swap between the BOJ and the FED with no impact on the price of this pair. No one is buying the other's currency.

The BOJ is taking JPY denominated collateral and giving out USD. What I see is the BOJ removing JPY assets from the hands of unstable american banks, thus putting them out of harms way for default or fire sale. What I also see is JPY being removed from the market and dollars being infused, $60 billion worth. These firms that are given the USD for the JPY, they don't need to sell their JPY assets, that might have driven down their value, and they don't need to buy USD, which would have driven up the USD. Also, what do these companies do with the USDs? I am guessing they send them back to the USA to pay their bills.

The Fed, on the other hand, has $60 billion in JPY. If I were the BOJ (and the FED), I would want those $60 billion JPY buying USD. It would boost support for the dollar and give Janapese companies cover as they move dollars back to JPY.

In the end, the BOJ selling USD is bullish dollar. Perhaps someone else on this thread can shed more light on JPY / USD swap.

CRISIS PAUSE
I think the USA wants and needs a crisis pause. It's just simply time for a pause and time for a USD / JPY correction upward. Also, after this last USA meltdown, the next meltdown might not come from the USA. This might drive attention to other currencies and people my take flight to the perceived "safe haven" of the USD. That is until the USA has another meltdown, one I am sure won't be far off.

It's my opinion that for the coming weeks there is continuing upward pressure on the USD / JPY.

I through these thoughts out to this thread for feedback.
  • #11,863
  • Sep 21, 2008 10:07pm Sep 21, 2008 10:07pm
Quoting BobAbby
I've been following the USD / JPY for a few years. This is my first FXfactory post and first currency post ever. I've been a currency trader for a bit and a commodity trader for much longer. I've been out of equities for a very long time.

The following are my thoughts for the USD / JPY in the coming weeks. I am looking for feedback.

SHORT SELLING LIMITS
The USA (plus UK and AUS) limiting short selling should be driving the USA and global equity markets up. People need to cover their shorts. Currently, where the USA equity markets go, so goes this pair. In other words, with the USA equity markets strengthening, so will the USD to the JPY. In my opinion, there could still be a nice rally ahead of us in the equity markets (and a rally in the USD/JPY) as people are forced to cover their shorts.

I haven't seen much of a link between USD/JPY and the Nikkie. If I am not seeing something I should, someone, please tell me I am wrong.

USA ELECTION
The USA has a presidential election coming up. I think there may be pressure to keep the dollar healthy through the election.

BOJ SELLS USD
Less enlightening to this pair is the BOJ's planned sale of $60 billion. This is a first in history that the BOJ is to be selling dollars.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...T5859320080918

At face value, this is a currency swap between the BOJ and the FED with no impact on the price of this pair. No one is buying the other's currency.

The BOJ is taking JPY denominated collateral and giving out USD. What I see is the BOJ removing JPY assets from the hands of unstable american banks, thus putting them out of harms way for default or fire sale. What I also see is JPY being removed from the market and dollars being infused, $60 billion worth. These firms that are given the USD for the JPY, they don't need to sell their JPY assets, that might have driven down their value, and they don't need to buy USD, which would have driven up the USD. Also, what do these companies do with the USDs? I am guessing they send them back to the USA to pay their bills.

The Fed, on the other hand, has $60 billion in JPY. If I were the BOJ (and the FED), I would want those $60 billion JPY buying USD. It would boost support for the dollar and give Janapese companies cover as they move dollars back to JPY.

In the end, the BOJ selling USD is bullish dollar. Perhaps someone else on this thread can shed more light on JPY / USD swap.

CRISIS PAUSE
I think the USA wants and needs a crisis pause. It's just simply time for a pause and time for a USD / JPY correction upward. Also, after this last USA meltdown, the next meltdown might not come from the USA. This might drive attention to other currencies and people my take flight to the perceived "safe haven" of the USD. That is until the USA has another meltdown, one I am sure won't be far off.

It's my opinion that for the coming weeks there is continuing upward pressure on the USD / JPY.

I through these thoughts out to this thread for feedback.
Sorry for the confusion, I should've just said "follow the S&P" but you can also follow the Nikkie, same scenario.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #11,864
  • Sep 21, 2008 10:13pm Sep 21, 2008 10:13pm
Im going to tell it straight.
The US is in deep trouble.
It has a widening trade deficit.
Its foreign debt is out of control.

Would you buy USD on this ?

USD/Yen will fall...
  • #11,865
  • Sep 22, 2008 9:31am Sep 22, 2008 9:31am
Quoting lasty
Would you buy USD on this ?
Yes, at least for this weak.
USD/JPY should hit 108.50 till friday.
  • #11,866
  • Sep 22, 2008 2:58pm Sep 22, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting valius
Yes, at least for this weak.
USD/JPY should hit 108.50 till friday.
Looks like U/Y is unsafe too
  • #11,867
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:11pm Sep 22, 2008 6:11pm
long from 105.62 / 105.14 stop

Based off 1hr/20min charts, and according to fibs (down to the 61.8%, and macd) this is a low risk entry, but we will see.
  • #11,868
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:21pm Sep 22, 2008 6:21pm
i'm long too from 105.25...
  • #11,869
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:23pm Sep 22, 2008 6:23pm
Quoting TreasureHunt
i'm long too from 105.25...
stop?
  • #11,870
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:26pm Sep 22, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting big_pipin
stop?
SL 100 Daily TF...
  • #11,871
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:31pm Sep 22, 2008 6:31pm
TP around 108.60...this week..
  • #11,872
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:36pm Sep 22, 2008 6:36pm
Quoting valius
Yes, at least for this weak.
USD/JPY should hit 108.50 till friday.
What makes you guys think its going to go up?
  • #11,873
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:38am Sep 23, 2008 3:38am
Quoting misterboy
What makes you guys think its going to go up?
Blind faith in strategy


Currently i am in loss with this trade, but the new wave is forming and it is very likely that i will reenter longs.
  • #11,874
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:42am Sep 23, 2008 3:42am
Quoting valius
Blind faith in strategy


Currently i am in loss with this trade, but the new wave is forming and it is very likely that i will reenter longs.
For me looks like back to 105.30 (at least). I'm short 108.85
  • #11,875
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:12am Sep 23, 2008 4:12am
hi guys.

nice retrace already happened & the trend will back to
rule the price direction.

here is my chart describe trend direction as everyone know the trend are (up) big time.


i posted here the daily and weekly chart and we all know how the weekly chart is powerful to anticipate the trend direction.
and as you see no sign of trend reversal all my charts screeming (long) from time ago.
& everytime a retrace happen the price rise again like a rocket.
so only to be in the safe side i have to trade with the trend .


the red arrows in my posts describe my forecasting targets
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #11,876
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:20am Sep 23, 2008 4:20am
Quoting Tiger Hunter
hi guys.

nice retrace already happened & the trend will back to
rule the price direction.

here is my chart describe trend direction as everyone know the trend are (up) big time.


i posted here the daily and weekly chart and we all know how the weekly chart is powerful to anticipate the trend direction.
and as you see no sign of trend reversal all my charts screeming (long) from time ago.
& everytime a retrace happen the price rise again like a rocket.
so only to be in the safe side i have to trade with the trend .


the red arrows in my posts describe my forecasting targets
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1222161101
Looks like a short to me...
I hope u r right...

Sonic
  • #11,877
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:29am Sep 23, 2008 4:29am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Looks like a short to me...
I hope u r right...

Sonic
On the 1 H chart coming evening star ( I hope )
  • #11,878
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:34am Sep 23, 2008 4:34am
That's it. I am not interesting in longs anymore.
  • #11,879
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:36am Sep 23, 2008 4:36am
Quoting valius
That's it. I am not interesting in longs anymore.
I can be wrong , but I see like this
  • #11,880
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:47am Sep 23, 2008 4:47am
hello
I have short
What do you think in this pictures?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy - start.gif Size: 18 KB
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