DislikedAsh can u post a link to equity market... thanksIgnored
Humble Lifetime Member
DislikedI've been following the USD / JPY for a few years. This is my first FXfactory post and first currency post ever. I've been a currency trader for a bit and a commodity trader for much longer. I've been out of equities for a very long time.
The following are my thoughts for the USD / JPY in the coming weeks. I am looking for feedback.
SHORT SELLING LIMITS
The USA (plus UK and AUS) limiting short selling should be driving the USA and global equity markets up. People need to cover their shorts. Currently, where the USA equity markets go, so goes this pair. In other words, with the USA equity markets strengthening, so will the USD to the JPY. In my opinion, there could still be a nice rally ahead of us in the equity markets (and a rally in the USD/JPY) as people are forced to cover their shorts.
I haven't seen much of a link between USD/JPY and the Nikkie. If I am not seeing something I should, someone, please tell me I am wrong.
The USA has a presidential election coming up. I think there may be pressure to keep the dollar healthy through the election.
BOJ SELLS USD
Less enlightening to this pair is the BOJ's planned sale of $60 billion. This is a first in history that the BOJ is to be selling dollars.
At face value, this is a currency swap between the BOJ and the FED with no impact on the price of this pair. No one is buying the other's currency.
The BOJ is taking JPY denominated collateral and giving out USD. What I see is the BOJ removing JPY assets from the hands of unstable american banks, thus putting them out of harms way for default or fire sale. What I also see is JPY being removed from the market and dollars being infused, $60 billion worth. These firms that are given the USD for the JPY, they don't need to sell their JPY assets, that might have driven down their value, and they don't need to buy USD, which would have driven up the USD. Also, what do these companies do with the USDs? I am guessing they send them back to the USA to pay their bills.
The Fed, on the other hand, has $60 billion in JPY. If I were the BOJ (and the FED), I would want those $60 billion JPY buying USD. It would boost support for the dollar and give Janapese companies cover as they move dollars back to JPY.
In the end, the BOJ selling USD is bullish dollar. Perhaps someone else on this thread can shed more light on JPY / USD swap.
I think the USA wants and needs a crisis pause. It's just simply time for a pause and time for a USD / JPY correction upward. Also, after this last USA meltdown, the next meltdown might not come from the USA. This might drive attention to other currencies and people my take flight to the perceived "safe haven" of the USD. That is until the USA has another meltdown, one I am sure won't be far off.
It's my opinion that for the coming weeks there is continuing upward pressure on the USD / JPY.
I through these thoughts out to this thread for feedback.Ignored
nice retrace already happened & the trend will back to
rule the price direction.
here is my chart describe trend direction as everyone know the trend are (up) big time.
i posted here the daily and weekly chart and we all know how the weekly chart is powerful to anticipate the trend direction.
and as you see no sign of trend reversal all my charts screeming (long) from time ago.
& everytime a retrace happen the price rise again like a rocket.
so only to be in the safe side i have to trade with the trend .
the red arrows in my posts describe my forecasting targets