Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Identify previous areas of support/resistance and place stops above/below. The entry point is very important too. Also have good risk/reward ratio.... don't set a stop loss for 100 pips when you a looking for a tp of 5 pips...

EURO-DOLLAR: Has edged back up to $1.4188 in current trading with flows said to be in small amounts and via the electronic platforms as the week winds down or attempts to wind down amid still swirling rumors counter-rumors and whatever else it takes. Earlier high was notched around $1.4202 traders suggest the area of Tuesday highs at $1.4225 is "a screaming sell" and should hold offers. But one counters "are you out of your mind? no-one is leaving orders this weekend" due to the event risk and especially with Asian markets closed for a holiday Monday.

switched to rio tinto from rio doce yesterday - big bux profit today but cant sell em for a week as i bought em with uncleared proceeds of sales (Rio doce)

Lets hope these shorts on euro and cable come off - too big to leave over the weekend when it gets whippy

long side is beginning to feel strong now so i am not confident of the drop

time is going on and nothing...hum

I would not be surprised seeing the north run

So what happens if BOE also wants to cut rate? Who wins?

Dollar Falls Most Versus Euro Since March on Pared Haven Demand
By Ye Xie
Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most against the euro since March, pushing the currency down from a one-year high, on reduced demand for the U.S. currency as a haven.
The euro, the Brazilian real and the pound advanced versus the yen as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. negotiated with potential buyers, encouraging investors to reduce bets against higher-yielding assets. The dollar also declined versus the euro as traders increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs by the end of the year.
``The market has been moving toward unwinding some of the recent trends as we move into the weekend,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``There's a lot of uncertainty about where we will be Monday morning. The sell-off in the dollar today is because people want to go home with their positions flat over the weekend.''
The dollar fell 1.4 percent to $1.4191 at 1:21 p.m. in New York, from $1.3998 yesterday, when it touched $1.3882, the strongest since Sept. 18, 2007. The yen dropped 1.7 percent to 152.51 per euro, from 149.98 yesterday, when it reached 147.54, the strongest since Aug. 11, 2006. Japan's currency decreased 0.3 percent to 107.48 per dollar, from 107.17.
Brazil's real rose 1.9 percent to 60.26 yen and the pound climbed 2.1 percent to 192.36 yen as a potential sale of Lehman encouraged investors to reverse short positions on higher- yielding assets funded in Japan's currency. Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate compares with 13.75 percent in Brazil and 5 percent in the U.K. A short is a bet an asset will decline.
Lehman on Block
Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld was pushed toward a forced sale after talks about a cash infusion from Korea Development Bank ended, sparking a 70 percent drop in the firm's market value in the past three days. Bank of America Corp. leads the list of potential buyers of Lehman, a person familiar with the bidding said. Spokesmen for Bank of America and Lehman declined to comment.
The ICE's Dollar Index fell for the first time in three days, dropping to 79.277. It touched 80.375 yesterday, the highest level since September 2007, when the Federal Reserve began cutting the target lending rate from 5.25 percent to 2 percent to stave off a recession. The index, a gauge measuring the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, reached a low of 70.698 on March 17.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 40 percent chance the Fed will cut its 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by December, compared with 35 percent odds yesterday and no chance a month ago. The Fed next meets Sept. 16.
Retail Decline
Sales at U.S. retailers fell 0.3 percent last month following a revised 0.5 percent drop in July, the Commerce Department reported today. The median forecast of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an increase of 0.2 percent. Producer prices dropped 0.9 percent in August, the Labor Department reported. The median forecast in a separate survey of economists was for a 0.5 percent drop.
The dollar has gained almost 13 percent since touching the all-time low of $1.6038 per euro on July 15 as the European economy slumped and crude oil dropped more than 30 percent from its peak of $147.27.
Crude oil for October delivery rose for the first time in four days, increasing 0.5 percent to $101.41 a barrel. The euro- dollar exchange rate and oil had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.
Relative Strength
The 14-day relative strength index of the euro against the dollar, a comparison of the magnitude of gains and losses, was 29.81. A reading below 30 typically signals a change in price direction is imminent.
``It has fallen too far too quickly,'' said Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets Inc. in Toronto, a unit of Canada's biggest bank by assets. ``We might be entering a technical rebound. I don't think this is an indication the rally in the U.S. dollar is over.''
ING Groep NV, citing ``sharp slowing'' in investment flows to Europe, forecasts the U.S. currency will increase to $1.45 per euro at the end of the third quarter and $1.48 by year-end, compared with the previous forecast of $1.55 for both periods.
``The dollar has overshot in the short term,'' wrote Chris Turner, head of currency research in London at ING, in a research note today.
Today's drop in the dollar versus the euro pared its weekly gain to 0.6 percent. The yen has advanced 0.8 percent against Europe's currency and 0.2 percent versus the dollar.

...

EU: EU`s Juncker says inflation a serious problem no sign of EU recession but a slowdown. Don`t like excessive FX moves notes US authorities stance on strong dollar.

Around the world, when will all of politicians to make public their forex- options- stocks- trading on public lists.

to 7981 ?

nah was just trying to point out that the downtrend technically is broken and we heading towards resistance that software i dunno how to use so i just placed the line under what i think is support/resistance

theres tweezer of the resistance so i dduno..8hr chart.i just thought id post it

might be rising instead of retracing cause of the profit taken from the shorts from way up....lol

Cant quote figures but BOE rate seems irrelevant and everyone looks at GDP - whereas a billionth of a % on USD is seen as crucial

I am not happy with this hanging thing just now

sniffs of strength in gbp to me -or is it paralysis
If it closes around here I will trim my positions for the weekend

at least I entered at 1.79004 and not 1.7450 so i should be able to sweat it out

I think the US will have a horrible weekend of news of all sorts and this is anticipated - so a long term sell on cable with a lot of account balance behind it should be wonderful when it goes back 350 pips - because the americans turn everything into a triumph - if california fell into a hole and the pacific poured in on top of it - they would be claiming that this 'brought the country together' and the dollar and stocks would go up and the mayor of wasilla would be leading the triumphal charge !


I dont have the guts for a big position though because it has hung too long...

My shorts feed off indecision and fear and I don't see it here in the last hour

I keep checking the charts as I write this !

fall you bum - fall !

it is hard to call it a movement but its Friday and the trading becomes more and more sleepy
it is possible that at the end of the day more and more still present taders will start closing their shorts - to not leave it for the weekend
so more and more buys can occur moving the price up

does it make any sens?

i love reading yur post..another great one

it has to be profit taking from the shorts...moves like this....accounts gonna be blow everyday

Dont forget MR Ike is hitting this weekend.... could help set up a nice continuation of a long position on Cable... but then again from a guy with losses like mine maybe saying less would be best.

Imagine Monday

A Lehman sale agreed without government intervention
B WAMU sale agreed with no government intervention
C Ike was big but only cat 2 and the rigs are ok - only george bush's ranch destroyed and he claims the rebuild on his expenses

just imagine what cable would be ?

Wow, you win - congrats. Longs were certainly helped by the string of crappy retail numbers from U.S.. Cable was heading back south otherwise... well, the overall trend is still unbroken - it's making lower lows and lower highs, and it's coming down hard next week, perhaps as early as Sunday. Can't avoid the inevitable. Good luck.

no man dont think like this traders working in banks with professional training cant get it right and lose money, we were in a amazing downtrend, breaking all the laws of physics...only thing i can say is people got to comfortable with it...myself was fighting the urge not to sell at that trendline cause yesterday i saw a 2 hr chart and it completely changed my outlook.....

any1 and every1 gets is wrong time to time but u must realise this market is designed to take yur money so u have to go in small...otherwise ud be screwed everytime

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif new trend in EUR/USD<<<<<
look at my analysi....
in EUR/USD we can see changing trend in the charts and lots of signal in chart and indecators and divergence and breaking resistance if you look at the picture and my explaine you can say what do you think and is that truth ?
in the daily chart first you can see the resisitance is broken and its again see anoder resistance and its make new canddel stick patern and the indecators like stochasic and MACD is say to us something the trend is changedhttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1221239527

in the 2 hour chart we can again see some thing nice can help us to disside in new trend and one trend line with thats chanel line is going to broking and divergence we can see in MACD
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1221239527

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=106091
what do you think about new trend line?

show a chart showing this..

It is going to break 1.8000.
Bad luck to those who short