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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #87,661
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:14am Sep 12, 2008 10:14am
So weekly candle looks like it might close as a pin, maybe even a bullish pin above 7840area...wonder whether it will continue straight up at next week's open or whether all the reatil traders will fall into a bulltrap created by it and some selling on open by the banks/funds/institutions...picking up some stops before any subsequent sustained recovery from 7447lows. 344pip recovery today off overnight 7540lows.

A lot of data out next week also so as always ....time will tell.

g/l
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ex member
  • #87,662
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:15am Sep 12, 2008 10:15am
Quoting jcminvest
greed won and I lost my friends.... im still trading... just with much less but a lesson was learned. I just hope you guys can help pick me up after this. Im back to where I started. But yes it was very very poor MM. I have learned and hope and pray I dont make the same mistake again.
Sorry pal, hope you get your cash back, good luck with going forward
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #87,663
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:16am Sep 12, 2008 10:16am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
I hate it when your analysis is right, but end up losing on the trade. This is my own error and I take full responsibility for it. I pretty much called the scenario of what was going to happen early this morning in my analysis but got distracted by quick downmoves (fear took over) that shook me out of a less than ideal entry and I lost all the gains I had made this week. I didn't stick to my game plan which was to place buy stops above the highs of 1 hr candles on the retrace at 7709 area b/c I missed the earlier entry @7550...instead I took entry off 5 minute chart @ 7710...got shook out of a position and I pretty much knew (well I was pretty sure, didn't KNOW obviously) this was going to 7835 and 7873 due to the double bottom and if i was triggered on the buy stops would've been obvious where this was going. Another lesson I learned was not to come on here when I'm in position - honestly I was swayed by someone's remarks about daily candles leaving long wicks when it reverses...it shouldn't sway me, but it did...and this is my mistake for not trusting my analysis 100%. I was looking at this double bottom formation since yesterday and it's definitely my mistake for not cashing in on it. Damnit this stings. Well time to drink some beer, refocus and practice for next week. At least I know I can trade well and analysis is right, but just need to tweak a couple things. Have a good weekend guys.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #87,664
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:16am Sep 12, 2008 10:16am
Quoting jcminvest
greed won and I lost my friends.... im still trading... just with much less but a lesson was learned. I just hope you guys can help pick me up after this. Im back to where I started. But yes it was very very poor MM. I have learned and hope and pray I dont make the same mistake again.

For what it is worth, it is an unwritten rule you must loose to win? I think we all have done what you have (maybe not as much) to learn this craft. And there will be days you get beat (hence my short from 77) You can make it back but it is up to you and how much time you are willing to put towards this. I was bound and determined to learn, and for that matter still am. I think you grow as a trader everyday.
  • #87,665
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:18am Sep 12, 2008 10:18am
Quoting Runway Trade
I think before and down!?
i hope that ..
  • #87,666
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:21am Sep 12, 2008 10:21am
Hey all,
Here is a wonderful example of a Daily Pinbar, or "Morning Star" as some call it. Now I know its E/J but its for learning purposes only and it shows the daily entry I made earlier on it. Now take a look at what the pair is doing now.

There is even a perfect example of a Daily Pivot Bar on the way down at the start of the week on Monday. A Pivot Bar is one single candle whos low is lower than the candle before it and the low of the candle after it. The opposite is true on the way up. Entry would have been at the first red line and shorted with a 100 pip stoploss. Total pipage was 550 pips.

Jim
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  • #87,667
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:23am Sep 12, 2008 10:23am
is it trying to go to 1.8...lol..insane for today!
  • #87,668
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:25am Sep 12, 2008 10:25am
JCM...

It will take atleast 3-4 years to consistently earn money from FOREX....even if you think you have learned your lesson and start trading wisely...you will make mistake in future...and commit greater money and loose than you did now..

There is no easy way out...you have to let go of any desire to win any money from FOREX and just concentrate on the work you need to put..the greater you think about result...the more you will loose.

For that reason...Only put 100 dollar in a month in the account and see where it takes you in the next three years.

You only need 100 dollars to fine tune your brain and also increase your balance manifold in the next three years..

I say it again...ONLY PUT 100 DOLLARS and a leverage of 1:50 to trade
  • #87,669
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:25am Sep 12, 2008 10:25am
I am a pivot trader and ran out of pivots an hour ago, Short= death

My thoughts
  • #87,670
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:25am Sep 12, 2008 10:25am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i need 83-84....

this is the retracement bit, so what i have to do now is wait for it to retrace 50 or 61.8 of the downward move and exit the long and hopefully it will conitnue down or wait for it to go right up and place buys on break even and on the way down the sell will engage assuming we staying in a downtrend...any iother way is to dangerous...

if it fall right to almost bottom i can buy 0.1 and hold till i reach a max..that might help also.. its a big mess
I think the key to your plan is when it gets close enough where you can stomach the loss go ahead and take it at what you think will be the limit of the retracement. If it continues up you can still trade longs with stops to get $$$ back.

I have tried your plan before... sometimes it works out....sometimes I wished I had gone ahead and closed when it got close and.....sometimes I was completely left behind again and all the stress came right back.

If the trade goes into profits do not hold it...close it and enter long again. That trade has haunted u long enough. I have made that mistake and it ended up shooting right back down and I felt really stupid then!!!


  • #87,671
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:29am Sep 12, 2008 10:29am
yawn good morning !

Appears to be a space rocket going up on my hourly chart

But have a look on the daily

It's more of a squib

The 'experts' predicted this large bounce yesterday but also a resumption of the fall eventually

The US is going to have to eat this mega storm and Wamu and Lehman etc before things calm down a bit

So all we need to do is pick the top and short it

Easy eh ?

I have made money all week by picking shorts - not big moves - just scalping

Just beer money really but consistent - day after day

Now we have a new scenario and it wont be so easy

Main thing is for me to use stop losses 100% of the time just now - and not wide ones either
  • #87,672
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:29am Sep 12, 2008 10:29am
Quoting NoBread
I am a pivot trader and ran out of pivots an hour ago,
  • #87,673
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:30am Sep 12, 2008 10:30am
Quoting hard1head1
Hey all,
Here is a wonderful example of a Daily Pinbar, or "Morning Star" as some call it. Now I know its E/J but its for learning purposes only and it shows the daily entry I made earlier on it. Now take a look at what the pair is doing now.

There is even a perfect example of a Daily Pivot Bar on the way down at the start of the week on Monday. A Pivot Bar is one single candle whos low is lower than the candle before it and the low of the candle after it. The opposite is true on the way up. Entry would have been at the first red line and shorted with a 100 pip stoploss. Total pipage was 550 pips.

Jim

Why that entry point as opposed to just over the high/open of the pinbar day?? That looks like the logical entry to me if you were placing a buy limit??
  • #87,674
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:37am Sep 12, 2008 10:37am
Quoting bbmac
So weekly candle looks like it might close as a pin, maybe even a bullish pin above 7840area...wonder whether it will continue straight up at next week's open or whether all the reatil traders will fall into a bulltrap created by it and some selling on open by the banks/funds/institutions...picking up some stops before any subsequent sustained recovery from 7447lows. 344pip recovery today off overnight 7540lows.

A lot of data out next week also so as always ....time will tell.

g/l
I completely understand your curiosity but I think this 385 pips jump happened because of two main factors:
1) Euro jump from 1.3972 to 1.4202
2) 3 red news of US came out negative
My conclusion based on 1) and 2) is this bounce is a fake bounce and this whole week is a mistry, on the week open there was huge gap up for 320 pips and today on the week close there was a huge bounce for 385 pips - hey this is a currency market man - face the market challenge or change your way of living...

Every day is different and every week is different my friend based on strong downtrend and UK is in sink mode with all its negative news, I think on Sunday open Asia will have hopefully gap down as I observer Asia open for the last 4 days believe me, every day Asia is either filling the gap up or filling the gap down. Since today was a huge gap up so my anticipation for Sunday open would be a gap down
  • #87,675
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:39am Sep 12, 2008 10:39am
1.7745...could we see that again soon ?

or at least 1.78 ?

what do u think... ?
  • #87,676
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:39am Sep 12, 2008 10:39am
well, i think the its gonna go down on tuesday in the comming week, im gonna be only in medium/long term entries in the comming 2 weeks
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #87,677
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:40am Sep 12, 2008 10:40am
Quoting allserene
yawn good morning !

Appears to be a space rocket going up on my hourly chart

But have a look on the daily

It's more of a squib

The 'experts' predicted this large bounce yesterday but also a resumption of the fall eventually

The US is going to have to eat this mega storm and Wamu and Lehman etc before things calm down a bit

So all we need to do is pick the top and short it

Easy eh ?

I have made money all week by picking shorts - not big moves - just scalping

Just beer money really but consistent - day after day

Now we have a new scenario and it wont be so easy

Main thing is for me to use stop losses 100% of the time just now - and not wide ones either
Allserene,

Check out my post to you on pg. 5832
  • #87,678
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:40am Sep 12, 2008 10:40am
Sell 1.7914 ( I think it's turn over point )
  • #87,679
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:41am Sep 12, 2008 10:41am
Quoting asyed4
I completely understand your curiosity but I think this 385 pips jump happened because of two main factors:
1) Euro jump from 1.3972 to 1.4202
2) 3 red news of US came out negative
My conclusion based on 1) and 2) is this bounce is a fake bounce and this whole week is a mistry, on the week open there was huge gap up for 320 pips and today on the week close there was a huge bounce for 385 pips - hey this is a currency market man - face the market challenge or change your way of living...

Every day is different and every week is different my friend based on strong downtrend and UK is in sink mode with all its negative news, I think on Sunday open Asia will have hopefully gap down as I observer Asia open for the last 4 days believe me, every day Asia is either filling the gap up or filling the gap down. Since today was a huge gap up so my anticipation for Sunday open would be a gap down
exactly !
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #87,680
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:44am Sep 12, 2008 10:44am
1.7745...could we see that again soon ?

or at least 1.78 ?

what do u think... ?
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