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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #6,281
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:17pm Feb 18, 2007 4:17pm
0 risk trade ..buy bph7 & sell 1 lot forex cable...profit: 260 usd...but thats not possible right?...
its just money
  • #6,282
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:18pm Feb 18, 2007 4:18pm
Quoting de123
0 risk trade ..buy bph7 & sell 1 lot forex cable...profit: 260 usd...but thats not possible right?...
What is bph7?
  • #6,283
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:32pm Feb 18, 2007 4:32pm
We've gapped up for no apparent reason. We often see big moves and stop running whenever the US is on holiday. What fun - take out those Americans' stops.
  • #6,284
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:35pm Feb 18, 2007 4:35pm
Quote
What is bph7?

BPH7 = British Pound Future, MAR 2007
  • #6,285
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:52pm Feb 18, 2007 4:52pm
Funny that it opened above Fri high.

I would wait for break of Fri's high or low to enter. But that would be on Monday morning only GMT
  • #6,286
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:58pm Feb 18, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting de123
0 risk trade ..buy bph7 & sell 1 lot forex cable...profit: 260 usd...but thats not possible right?...
No. GLOBEX is not trading yet and when it starts it will gap.

Just after I posted that it gapped up to 1.9542 - same as the spot rate.
  • #6,287
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:49pm Feb 18, 2007 5:49pm
Last time I saw this Gap up this way before a US holiday we took off - I dont feel the same way this time. Reached a high at 50% fib - and reversed, perhaps took some weak short positions out at stops for those holding over the weekend - Either way when price is bid up over the weekend into a gap, it is usually safe to fade the gap going into the opening. Daily is down on strong MACD with weak stochastic cross to gap up to 50% of down move(fade weak stochastic in direction of strong MACD at fib resistance) - perfect shorting scenario with break even set at close of gap and partials looked for at fib extensions - I would say 61.8 is fair extension for first tp looking to hit 1.618.

At the same time, this last move down could have been a large correction of the previous thrusting move north in which case, if the GAP closes we are at breakeven looking for more profit potential, however if we come back up to a 1600 tick close above this opening 1600 tick high, we can look for a further extension upwards to 61.8 extension as this high has already met the 38.2 extension. As long as the Gap closes, we should be in good shape, if not it is a minimum loss.

Just an Opinion.

I took so long to write this that the Gap is just about closed - :
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,288
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:59pm Feb 18, 2007 5:59pm
Here are extensions to upside(Green) and downside(Red), the fade was at the 38.2 extension which also happened to be the 50% retracement of most recent down move.
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,289
  • Feb 18, 2007 6:04pm Feb 18, 2007 6:04pm
Different view of same picture
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,290
  • Feb 18, 2007 6:56pm Feb 18, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting BigFace
BPH7 = British Pound Future, MAR 2007
Thank you.
  • #6,291
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:44pm Feb 18, 2007 7:44pm
Why do gaps happen?

This is the first time I noticed a gap happen.
  • #6,292
  • Feb 18, 2007 8:40pm Feb 18, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting newjersey24
Why do gaps happen?

This is the first time I noticed a gap happen.
There are a lot of conflicting opinions about this. when the market is live and you get a jump in price either way skipping over large areas there is a strong possibility stops/orders within that area will not be fired. Hence the market habit of coming back to get them. Where confusion comes in is when it is merely a shortfall in charting packages. The market actually opens with New Zealand on Sunday afternoon. The gap jump did not happen untill 3:50pm est Sunday. One cannot in my opinion call it a gap unless it happens while markets are open, instantly, or is not related to gaps in information due to charting shortcomings. Markets we never even gave two thoughts to two years ago are exercising "large" strength in the market today. Problem is, most are still looking at "3" markets and not acknowledging the globalization of liquidity in the market. I trade the gaps when they occur Intraday but never as a result of perceived "Sunday" open. JMHO

Brad
  • #6,293
  • Feb 18, 2007 8:53pm Feb 18, 2007 8:53pm
Just a quick point about gaps, market opening, broker openings.

"Broker opening" time and "market opening" time are not necessarily the same.

The "market" may actually be open a few hours before a lot of retail brokers. Trading in New Zealand starts at 19.00/20.00 gmt, while some retail brokers dont open untill 22.00gmt etc

Todays GBP hourly prices from a broker opening at 18.00 GMT were:
18.00 GMT
Open: 1.9496
High: 1.9501
Low: 1.9489
Close: 1.9497

19.00 GMT
Open: 1.9498
High: 1.9503
Low: 1.9493
Close: 1.9496

20.00 GMT
Open: 1.9493
High: 1.9527
Low: 1.9493
Close: 1.9525

21.00 GMT
Open: 1.9524
High: 1.9547
Low: 1.9524
Close: 1.9542


22.00 GMT (some retail brokers open)
Open: 1.9541



So.. a particular broker/platform/chart may show a gap that wasnt really there (a chart based on the above brokers prices would show no gap between Fri close/Mon opening)
How a particular broker deals with tp/sl orders etc within that gap, while they but not necessarily the market were closed is another issue!
  • #6,294
  • Feb 18, 2007 8:53pm Feb 18, 2007 8:53pm
Any thoughts on if we will still see that drop to fill the gap? If so, there would be a nice chance right now to short for some quick profit.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #6,295
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:15pm Feb 18, 2007 9:15pm
I think we will see a drop deeper than the gap.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,296
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:20pm Feb 18, 2007 9:20pm
Quoting mike w
Any thoughts on if we will still see that drop to fill the gap? If so, there would be a nice chance right now to short for some quick profit.
What is quick profit? I just took 18 pips in a few minutes. If you are going to ask a chat forum you cannot scalp. This is not a chat. I rarely scalp but went short cable and it reversed so quick my beginning days trading came back and I just took profit. Old habits. Now I will go to bed and it will be 200 pips lower, guess what, I will be happy with 18. The market never runs out of opportunities. If you can't read long term but read short term, take it. When you read long term, trust it and ride but at least exit with short term scalp goals b4 all is lost. You will have lost nothing. Your account will grow as long as you don't get greedy. JMHO

Brad
  • #6,297
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:25pm Feb 18, 2007 9:25pm
Quoting Bradone
What is quick profit? I just took 18 pips in a few minutes. If you are going to ask a chat forum you cannot scalp. This is not a chat. I rarely scalp but went short cable and it reversed so quick my beginning days trading came back and I just took profit. Old habits. Now I will go to bed and it will be 200 pips lower, guess what, I will be happy with 18. The market never runs out of opportunities. If you can't read long term but read short term, take it. When you read long term, trust it and ride but at least exit with short term scalp goals b4 all is lost. You will have lost nothing. Your account will grow as long as you don't get greedy. JMHO

Brad

well the fading on that asian spike was pure luck coz normaly it would have gone up up till london-

enjoy your pips while i watch the whip whip, and whip saw asian style.

I got a gallon of coffee last me till london mid day

may pips be with ya and sweet pip dream.

COngras on your pips too - 18 better than negative
Pipology 101 student
  • #6,298
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:28pm Feb 18, 2007 9:28pm
Quoting Bradone
What is quick profit? I just took 18 pips in a few minutes. If you are going to ask a chat forum you cannot scalp. This is not a chat. I rarely scalp but went short cable and it reversed so quick my beginning days trading came back and I just took profit. Old habits. Now I will go to bed and it will be 200 pips lower, guess what, I will be happy with 18. The market never runs out of opportunities. If you can't read long term but read short term, take it. When you read long term, trust it and ride but at least exit with short term scalp goals b4 all is lost. You will have lost nothing. Your account will grow as long as you don't get greedy. JMHO

Brad
you need to be greedy - greedy and stingy - dont pay more than you have to and get all you can for your money?
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,299
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:50pm Feb 18, 2007 9:50pm
Quoting pipology-101
well the fading on that asian spike was pure luck coz normaly it would have gone up up till london-

enjoy your pips while i watch the whip whip, and whip saw asian style.

I got a gallon of coffee last me till london mid day

may pips be with ya and sweet pip dream.

COngras on your pips too - 18 better than negative
No luck. Just acknowledgment of another market opening. Judging the size of that market to move the market is the skill. My stats say 20 pips last week on this particular market opening. Still seems to be working for me. How about you? I will now sleep until London. Watch away. What will Kurt do?
Have fun.

Brad
  • #6,300
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:53pm Feb 18, 2007 9:53pm
Quoting pipology-101
well the fading on that asian spike was pure luck coz normaly it would have gone up up till london-

enjoy your pips while i watch the whip whip, and whip saw asian style.

I got a gallon of coffee last me till london mid day

may pips be with ya and sweet pip dream.

COngras on your pips too - 18 better than negative
Just out of curiosity, which market just opened in your observations?

Brad
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