Cable Update (GBPUSD)

My view this major support will only hit after reach the weekly resistance at 1.8240. So maybe we are going up there then fall down again.

Rollercoster begins!

Out my long for 30 pips. =)


Let's see NY session...

Most of my signals are bearish, there is only starting to have a little bullishness in the 1hr.

Cheers and God Bless.

I'm still holding my Long position, still negative since i longed at 1.8072. I have done my analysis but i also need some support from everyone here please to tell me if gbp/usd could possibly reach resistance of 1.8088 which was previously a support level...

i will go south..

its look like rejected to 1.800

see 15 min TF

I'm sure it will break 1.8088 AFTER NY open.

best of luck to all of us.

Thank you,

can i know where you put your stoploss?

The dollar might start to go down a long way from here.. which in turn might help the pound... I think....

lol..

I love Forex.

NY is closed today

I placed my stop loss just below the low range of today which is a strong support of 1.8005. My stop loss is at 1.7997 since 00 levels are also very strong trading levels. I'm just here now waiting for it to retrace back up before exiting... Where did you place your stop loss? where is your entry?

Hi

At resistance range 1.8100/20 it is recommended to evaluate the activity development according to the charts of shorter time interval.
For sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.8020/40, 1.7960/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.7900/20, 1.7820/40, 1.7760/80.
An alternative for buyers will be above 1.8200 with the targets 1.8240/60, 1.8300/20.

becasue you & bullrock wasnt there

Labor Day hoilday in US dont forget

At first I would like to send you a hurricane of applause.

Thank you for your opened forum thread. Excellent graphs from members of forum thread and/or very pleasant forex comments and discussions from members of forum thread which respect themselves mutually much.

Possible assumable estimated damage sum due to hurricane "Gustav" in U.S.: $30 billions of US Dollars.

It is to be expected, several US banks will go into bankruptcy, please to inform at:
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/index.html

MNI Market Directions August 31, 2008 Forward to a friend
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A Tale of Three Markets

Equity traders watch currencies, oil traders watch the dollar and lately everyone watches the price of oil. The relationship between the price of crude oil and the value of the dollar has been unusually close in the past year and especially so following the peak crude oil price on July 14th. The inverse correlation has been strict, as the dollar rose oil fell. Even the dates for the reverses in each market mimic each other. The dollar reached bottom against the euro the day after oil reached its apogee. July 15th , the day of the dollar’s plunge the Dow closed at 10,962.54. Since then oil has fallen more than 20%, the dollar has gained 8.5% against the euro and the Dow has returned 5.3%, (all dated to the Friday close).

The effect of a lower oil price has been much less pronounced on equities than on the dollar. This is odd because oil acts on the currency markets and the equities in much the same manner: through its effects on the US economy. What insight can we gain from comparing the behavior of the three markets since the oil bubble was punctured in mid-July?

That oil was in a bubble has been clearly demonstrated by its behavior since the peak. When Hurricane Gustav became a potential threat to American oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico the price of crude rose more than seven dollars on world exchanges. When the Federal Government announced that oil would be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter any shortage created by the storm the price of crude fell back almost to its starting point. That is a normal commodity market reaction not a bubble induced lunge.

On July 14th President Bush lifted the executive order prohibiting drilling on the US continental shelf and challenged Congress to do the same with its own prohibition. Oil began its long fall that day, the dollar its month long rise the next. There is no coincidence in these dates. Oil traders know that 70% of the American population supports drilling for oil in American territory. The congressional ban on offshore drilling expires on September 30th. Congress must act to renew the prohibitory regulation or the ban will lapse. Traders were betting that in an election year, with a very close presidential race the Democrats will be forced to permit drilling or risk seriously damaging the fortunes of their nominee Barack Obama.

What was obvious then is even more obvious now that the Republican presidential candidate John McCain has chosen Sarah Palin the Governor of Alaska as his vice presidential running mate. The Republicans clearly intend to make energy policy and specifically drilling for oil a major topic in the election. Sarah Palin is both pro-drilling and well versed in energy politics. As the campaign progresses, the pressure on oil prices from the potential for increased supply will intensify.

The dollar has been boosted by several factors: the US economy out-performed the European Monetary Union (EMU) by a wide margin in the second quarter; the Fed rate reduction of 325 basis points has given the US economy the edge on recovery and the ECB has provided no stimulus for the European economy; the next rate move by the Federal Reserve is likely to be a hike and the ECB will probably cut; the belief that the US is ahead in the economic cycle having fallen briefly into negative growth in the fourth quarter of last year while the EMU did not shrink until the second quarter of 2008.

US equity markets have several factors leaning against any prolonged upward move. The residue of the sub-prime and asset backed securities problems are proving much more of a threat to the financial system and the resumption of normal credit markets than many anticipated. The financial system will be hard pressed to resume normal functioning until the housing market has stabilized. As long as the underlying market continues to decline, assets based on valuations from that market will continue to fall as well. The best hope for a sustained US recovery now rests with the US consumer. US exports, for many months the driving force behind GDP growth, will begin to wane as the dollar rises. Consumer spending as given by real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was only 0.7% higher in July over the previous year. There is little doubt that rising oil prices -- headline inflation was 5.6% in July -- is one of the primary stops on US consumer spending and sentiment. If lower oil prices can help bolster the US consumer and transfer some economic growth from exports to domestic consumption, the US economy stands a good chance of avoiding a prolonged period of slow or negative growth.

In a very accurate sense the American voter has identified the one factor that has the greatest chance of preventing a painful decline in the US economy—lower oil prices. It is also the factor that will do the most to press the rise in the dollar.


9/1/2008 6:26:46 AM - CABLE: Paul Day of MIG Investments notes the overnight fall in cable which produced a gap this morning after the weekly close below key $1.83 support on Friday. Day adds that sterling looking very worrying against all major currencies as it continues to play out his view that it will be the `Dog of the FX` markets during 2008 suggesting to hold shorts and fade rallies to TDMA1 resistance currently at $1.8302. His long-term view is that we will eventually see $1.60 and the weekly close below $1.83 suggests we could head straight to $1.74 in a quick fashion. Initial resistance seen at the $1.8171 overnight gap.


Begin of quote:

The look back at some reports that came out last week because there were some surprising numbers. Perhaps the biggest surprise came from the Durable Goods Orders report from last Wednesday which showed an increase of 1.3 percent when the market expected zero growth. Also exceeding expectations were the Existing Home Sales figures, which beat by 100k units, and Consumer Confidence, which posted a 56.9 reading, well above the 53.0 reading that was expected. The final report of note that beat expectations was the Q2 Preliminary GDP figure, which came in at 3.3 percent, above the 2.7 percent that was anticipated.

Moving on to this week’s calendar, with the markets closed today there are plenty of reports packed into the remaining four days. Tomorrow at 10:00 AM the ISM Index will be released and expectations are for a reading of 49.5, showing a slight contraction from last month, when the reading was a 50.0.

This is in line with the expectations for the ISM Services Index, which is expected to show the same half of a percent contraction, from 49.5 last month to a reading of 49.0 this month. Anything below 50 on the ISM reports is considered contraction, whereas anything above 50 is considered expansion.

The unemployment rate for August is set to be released on Friday, and is expected to match the July figure of 5.7 percent. While expectations are to simply match the July figure, it should be noted that the unemployment rate in July was the highest this year. So if this months figure comes in higher, it will be the highest this year and the highest since March of 2004. Also on Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls figure for August is released, and expectations are for another 61k jobs lost in August. As is points out in this article above, this would push the total amount of jobs lost this year to over 500,000.

The final item of note this week is the Fed Beige Book that comes out on Wednesday at 2:00 PM. It will be interesting to see if in this report any of the 12 districts are showing any signs of economic recovery.

End of quote.

At this point I would like to paste a statistic from 02nd of September 2008 till 05th of September 2008 for Market Expects and Prior, but I do not know how I should paste this table into my post here.

Thank you.

bearish harami seen on 15M chart. I'm short @ 1.8044

well..

sorry

target achieved +30. Lets wait for new candlestick pattern to develop.

with +10pps

im still holding my long position but this is starting to get VERY stressful now..