Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

#85,041
Aug 30, 2008 5:04am Aug 30, 2008 5:04am

belekas
Joined Sep 2007 | Status: gone fishing | 5,782 Posts

Quoting Bones

Disliked

You know Nav one of the best advice Ive had (months ago but its taken a while to sink in),which was from Mike W was to trade the higher TF's and I would say the same to you forget about the 15 min charts as they to much noise.
Many pips to you my friend.

Ignored

If you cant succesfully trade higher timeframes theres no way youll be making money on lower timeframes like 15min etc. 1hr produces already too much noise

#85,042
Aug 30, 2008 5:07am Aug 30, 2008 5:07am

nAVIN2007
Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts

Quoting belekas

Disliked

If you cant succesfully trade higher timeframes theres no way youll be making money on lower timeframes like 15min etc. 1hr produces already too much noise

Ignored

yes i am seeing this....now

#85,043
Aug 30, 2008 5:22am Aug 30, 2008 5:22am

belekas
Joined Sep 2007 | Status: gone fishing | 5,782 Posts

Quoting nAVIN2007

Disliked

yes i am seeing this....now

Ignored

bump. check your pm box

#85,044
Aug 30, 2008 7:11am Aug 30, 2008 7:11am

sonicdeejay
| Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,069 Posts

Quoting mike w

Disliked

Hey there! Could you tell me why you opened a long position on cable? What is your reasoning behind the long order? thanks!

Ignored

Mike,,

May I knw the link of ur journal?

sonic

#85,045
Aug 30, 2008 9:55am Aug 30, 2008 9:55am

hard1head1
| Commercial User | Joined Jul 2006 | 2,566 Posts

Here are my views on the 4 Hr, Daily and Weekly charts going into next week. Take it with a grain of salt, but I believe we are close to a run up and I am planning for a nice carry. We got Bullish falling wedges on the 4 Hr and Daily. We have almost made it to the 76% fib level from the total move up from November 2005. It even looks like we have the first half of a Head & Shoulders on the weekly.

Jim

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#85,046
Aug 30, 2008 10:41am Aug 30, 2008 10:41am

Qu|cksilver
Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,163 Posts

Quoting hard1head1

Disliked

Here are my views on the 4 Hr, Daily and Weekly charts going into next week. Take it with a grain of salt, but I believe we are close to a run up and I am planning for a nice carry. We got Bullish falling wedges on the 4 Hr and Daily. We have almost made it to the 76% fib level from the total move up from November 2005. It even looks like we have the first half of a Head & Shoulders on the weekly.

Jim

Ignored

Jim,

Do you mean next week the downtrend will continue?

"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea

#85,047
Aug 30, 2008 10:49am Aug 30, 2008 10:49am

nAVIN2007
Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts

Quoting Qu|cksilver

Disliked

Jim,

Do you mean next week the downtrend will continue?

Ignored

Nope quick he is saying it may go up!.....i think it may bounce but as for ......going back up...i doubt it ....this mother is tough and things for UK only gonna get worse....monthly,weekly and dailly all pointing down.

#85,048
Aug 30, 2008 1:21pm Aug 30, 2008 1:21pm

hard1head1
| Commercial User | Joined Jul 2006 | 2,566 Posts

No, I am not saying it is going up. Navin, you have to read what I am saying. "I BELIEVE we are CLOSE to a run up and I am PLANNING for a nice carry." As long as we stay in these wedges we will go down, but you cant ignore the Weekly support we are coming to. Keep in mind, when the wedge is broken pairs have been known to travel down the back of the wedge before bouncing as shown in this rough wedge example below. Just have to watch the news and the signals, guys.

Jim

Quoting Qu|cksilver

Disliked

Jim,

Do you mean next week the downtrend will continue?

Ignored

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#85,049
Aug 30, 2008 1:32pm Aug 30, 2008 1:32pm

bbmac
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,392 Posts

I wonder what effect the Uk Chancellor's w/e comments about economy facing '...most difficult conditions in 60 years/severe and prolonged downturn etc...' will have on gbp pairings at the opening next week??

article link is below:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...listairdarling

ex member

#85,050
Aug 30, 2008 1:44pm Aug 30, 2008 1:44pm

svtnick
| Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 133 Posts

I think oil in the short term on monday could lead the initial direction of cable. after the oil effect wears off..fundamentals will determine its overall trend.....down.

#85,051
Aug 30, 2008 2:28pm Aug 30, 2008 2:28pm

nAVIN2007
Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts

Quoting hard1head1

Disliked

No, I am not saying it is going up. Navin, you have to read what I am saying. "I BELIEVE we are CLOSE to a run up and I am PLANNING for a nice carry." As long as we stay in these wedges we will go down, but you cant ignore the Weekly support we are coming to. Keep in mind, when the wedge is broken pairs have been known to travel down the back of the wedge before bouncing as shown in this rough wedge example below. Just have to watch the news and the signals, guys.

Jim

Ignored

thx for showing the outcome of what happens when we in a wedge...notice bro the use of the word "may".i never said u said it will go up.just u imply it may....which is actually the same thing, pretty much ....

anyways i wish u post more, in here buddy....how are thing?..long time no talk.

#85,052
Aug 30, 2008 4:28pm Aug 30, 2008 4:28pm

bbmac
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,392 Posts

The chart attached is the 4hr Gbpusd. Pretty much dead cat bounces in terms of pullbacks before the sellers came again in this recent strong downtrend from 2.0157 area. Last week was characterised by rangy intraday conditions followed by a late London session b/o with the prevailing downtrend.

A lot of chatter about a potential interim bottom/base around these current levels now...time will tell of course...not sure the Uk chancellor's comments over w/e will do anything to help that and as hinted at in a post above here if uber-dove MPC member Blanchflower gets his way with a BOE rate cut next week, it could start a fresh wave of £ selling.

Data out of U.s last week leading many to suggest the worse might be over there, and of course there's a good chance of a post election bounce. Perhaps on the basis that the Uk generally trails the U.s by 6-12mths re economic effects (U.s sneezes, Uk catches a cold) are leading some to be more optimistic about Uk economy near term than others. Personally I think that U.s/U.k maxim is somewhat outdated in a more globalised but still inter-dependant world, in the sense that, actually, it's probably more complicated than that.

The fibs shown are the 0157-8171 [yellow] and the more recent 8798-8171 move (grey)

The light blue then dark blue areas represent the former congestion/pullback area on this chart that is likely to be a real upside hurdle on any extended recovery/pullback from friday's lows. The 8640/50 area would be the likely top of that zone and coincides with 23.6% of the former move and 76.4% of the later.

G/l.

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ex member

#85,053
Aug 30, 2008 6:32pm Aug 30, 2008 6:32pm

Qu|cksilver
Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,163 Posts

I agree with jim.
My TA shows next week we still may see the down trend. Maybe we will bounce from 1.7850 area then going up.

"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea

#85,054
Aug 30, 2008 8:49pm Aug 30, 2008 8:49pm

allserene
Joined Jun 2007 | Status: As you say Ingles - rich and free | 2,751 Posts

Quoting bbmac

Disliked

I wonder what effect the Uk Chancellor's w/e comments about economy facing '...most difficult conditions in 60 years/severe and prolonged downturn etc...' will have on gbp pairings at the opening next week??

article link is below:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...listairdarling

Ignored

I read it and it is scary - I am trying to hold my breath until i can get back to the uk in 2 weeks and move my hbos bank accounts to hsbc - i will take the penalty on the fixed rate and get out of those accounts

I think they should be ok for a while but 2 million unemployed !!!!!

I remember 1.6 on the old basis which is where it is now (using new weird figure) and it was awful - I just signed on the dole and went caravanning for 5 months in Scotland - living off mackerel and spuds - never been so healthy !

If Darling is right then the pound is dead

http://www.hrmguide.co.uk/jobmarket/unemployment.htm

#85,055
Aug 30, 2008 9:10pm Aug 30, 2008 9:10pm

traderpinoy
| Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 112 Posts

if ever the oil goes up..it will have as bad effect to both US and UK's alredy deteriorating economy ( although i dont really care about any funda stuff and i dont get why an expensive oil is equiv to a weak USD...

anyways I will not try to play and catch bottom here...i would rather play all shorts again this week unless i see on the chart a very good reason to go long....

#85,056
Aug 31, 2008 12:28pm Aug 31, 2008 12:28pm

anakmelayufx
| Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 79 Posts

Quoting mike w

Disliked

Hey there! Could you tell me why you opened a long position on cable? What is your reasoning behind the long order? thanks!

Ignored

based on QQE at D1 and H1....if QQE H4 cross and GU candlestick maintained above 5MA and close above Gann H4 I believe that GU will try to make retracement.....I am waiting GU close above Gann H1 at this moment....so far so good because GU maintained above 5MA at H1 and QQE already cross....just to wait bigger timeframe like H4 and D1 to follow same direction as H1 Gann, QQE and 5MA......however I already lock my SL to avoid any problem....