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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #6,181
  • Feb 15, 2007 12:52pm Feb 15, 2007 12:52pm
Quoting coshbrewer
Support held at 9522 - All the retracement in £ has been mirrored in the rise in eur/gbp whilst euro/dollar has marked time. [maybe gathering strength to break through down trend line from Dec. high] If euro/dollar starts to rise tomorrow and breaks trend line it will drag gbp/usd with it so watch out for possible rise.
PLUS

Dollar down the hole across the board, breaking out of ranging channel from early Jan. Tomorrow lousy PPI expected

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/
  • #6,182
  • Feb 15, 2007 1:05pm Feb 15, 2007 1:05pm
Quoting cesarnc
PLUS

Dollar down the hole across the board, breaking out of ranging channel from early Jan. Tomorrow lousy PPI expected

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

em , better wait and see , i dont count on news forecast because this month most of forecasts were bullshit ...
  • #6,183
  • Feb 15, 2007 2:12pm Feb 15, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting viking
em , better wait and see , i dont count on news forecast because this month most of forecasts were bullshit ...
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.

Previous 0.9% Forecast -0.6%. That's why I used the word "lousy" instead of "negative". Anything below 0 will be lousy.
  • #6,184
  • Feb 15, 2007 2:21pm Feb 15, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting cesarnc
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.

Previous 0.9% Forecast -0.6%. That's why I used the word "lousy" instead of "negative". Anything below 0 will be lousy.
That's all quite correct. I'll be trading the news as a result tomorrow morning to see if I can grab a few pips in a few seconds and get out!

Past that though, and looking longer term, it may trigger a trend/reversal as a result, we'll just have to wait and see....
  • #6,185
  • Feb 15, 2007 2:30pm Feb 15, 2007 2:30pm
Quoting rooney
re the yen...Can you explain that to a novice for me??

Also, can you explain why US$ is strengthenning pn the back of the bad news.... just thought I was getting the hang of all this and go long and the market goes the other way, must be something im missing.

your insight/ wisdom appreciated.
I think the mistake you are making is you are interpreting the news. You nor I are capable of doing that. For every winner there is a loser. Wrong iterpretations. I have been in Forex since 2004 so not that much experience but I remember a NFP of 54k, over 100 less than expected, dropped 50 pips, and then rocketed 250. NFP pushed the market into the waiting buyers who didn't give 2 cents about some little news announcement. Study market structure. Don't interpret the news! Interpret the markets reaction to the news and it will be far less frustrating. There are so many trading opportunities there would be nothing wrong or chicken if you chose to sit out the major news announcements. JMHO

Brad
  • #6,186
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:01pm Feb 15, 2007 3:01pm
anyone planning on opening a long order prior to the news to get in early on it? or do you think that would be a bad idea? because im planning on doing that myself at around 1.95 on the dot. Thanx for any thoughts.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #6,187
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:09pm Feb 15, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting mike w
anyone planning on opening a long order prior to the news to get in early on it? or do you think that would be a bad idea? because im planning on doing that myself at around 1.95 on the dot. Thanx for any thoughts.
It's really tough to say - if the news reports come out with a positive surprise you could get screwed... all depends on your risk tolerance I guess. There's a chance for a big gain, but also a big loss with that strategy.
  • #6,188
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:12pm Feb 15, 2007 3:12pm
you are right on that side of things. glad i posted to get a different perspective on it. best to wait, and thanks a lot shard.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #6,189
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:15pm Feb 15, 2007 3:15pm
Quoting mike w
you are right on that side of things. glad i posted to get a different perspective on it. best to wait, and thanks a lot shard.
No problem, just trying to take a logical approach - one can't get too emotional when it comes to trading or else bad things will happen.

And hindsight is always 20/20. Perhaps the PPI #s will be horrible tomorrow and your plan would work - but there's no way to know that until after the fact...
  • #6,190
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:20pm Feb 15, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting mike w
anyone planning on opening a long order prior to the news to get in early on it? or do you think that would be a bad idea? because im planning on doing that myself at around 1.95 on the dot. Thanx for any thoughts.
I'm planning to catch Frankfurt direction + London confirmation (across the board):

- Clearly USD bullish before news, I'll step off prior to the news.
- Clearly USD bearish I'll keep it throughout the news

Sometimes the market takes the price to a "safe" place when news are expected to move the market against the overall trend. So all you'll get is a "retracement" during news and Technicals take over.

Never much to say that USD is weaker across the board for two days. Hard to say if Friday will be a continuation day or not...
  • #6,191
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:28pm Feb 15, 2007 3:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
Previous 0.9% Forecast -0.6%. That's why I used the word "lousy" instead of "negative". Anything below 0 will be lousy.

thats why i told you i dont count on forecast , if you look again on this week news , then you will find that most of news had huge different between actual and forecast ... ( Like UK retail sales )
  • #6,192
  • Edited 9:41pm Feb 15, 2007 8:48pm | Edited 9:41pm
Ultimately the US announcements today will be the driving factor since there is "zero" data for the GBP today. The EUR announcements at 2 AM, 2:45 AM, and 5 AM may have some influence on this pair. I know the forecast for the US data is "negative" but as someone mentioned earlier, you can NEVER go on forecast. If the US data is BETTER than expected with positive revisions for the previous month and you entered a trade believing the negative forecast then you will make your broker very happy by handing him your money!

At any rate, I suspect we'll see a lot of sideways action till the Frankfurt, London opens then maybe some upward movement to the 1.9560 area with the US announcement pushing it on up to 1.9600. Those are my thoughts and by no means enter a trade based on them since I have been wrong before. I have two entry orders poised ;

1 LONG at 1.9570
1 SHORT at 1.9490

That's all I got! Good luck with your trades!
Show me the PIPS!
  • #6,193
  • Feb 15, 2007 10:58pm Feb 15, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting Bradone
I think the mistake you are making is you are interpreting the news. You nor I are capable of doing that. For every winner there is a loser. Wrong iterpretations. I have been in Forex since 2004 so not that much experience but I remember a NFP of 54k, over 100 less than expected, dropped 50 pips, and then rocketed 250. NFP pushed the market into the waiting buyers who didn't give 2 cents about some little news announcement. Study market structure. Don't interpret the news! Interpret the markets reaction to the news and it will be far less frustrating. There are so many trading opportunities there would be nothing wrong or chicken if you chose to sit out the major news announcements. JMHO

Brad
Words of wisdom indeed.. At last, a lucid explanation of something that has been baffling me and consistently losing me wedge for my first few newbie months.

Thx.
  • #6,194
  • Feb 15, 2007 11:58pm Feb 15, 2007 11:58pm
Meeting strong resistance here..........
Show me the PIPS!
  • #6,195
  • Feb 16, 2007 12:03am Feb 16, 2007 12:03am
1.9506 that is.....
Show me the PIPS!
  • #6,196
  • Feb 16, 2007 12:13am Feb 16, 2007 12:13am
This is being a yen-carry move, watch out...

Euro is holding at or above Frankfurt open....
  • #6,197
  • Feb 16, 2007 3:18am Feb 16, 2007 3:18am
Can this get a little bit more boring, please...
  • #6,198
  • Feb 16, 2007 4:08am Feb 16, 2007 4:08am
G/u is dt since 2 weeks ago?

Thanks g/u for making my chinese new year 2007 a prosperous one

Was out shopping today and g/u went lower

Will trade the US open.
  • #6,199
  • Feb 16, 2007 5:38am Feb 16, 2007 5:38am
news confirmed USD-lousy

dollar decided to get firmer, NOW?
  • #6,200
  • Feb 16, 2007 5:40am Feb 16, 2007 5:40am
got lucky on that one, went long at 1.9486 yeah baby news is my new best friend haha any thoughts on if it will stay going strong now or go back down? i think its going to stay up until around the 40's then drop again.
I dream, therefore I become.
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