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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #84,601
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:31am Aug 28, 2008 10:31am
Quoting Jor09
this trend has been paying well to its followers.
My thoughts are that we have two areas to look at:
1-8244-219 where there is a confluence of many things including the weekly 365ema and some monthly fib levels.
2-8180 area where we have amonthly support plus the monthly 89ema.
Below these levels i'l look for 8094 which is the 74.6% of the move from 1.7049.
There is no bottom to this trend until a weekly signal presents itself; nothing smaller than a weekly candlestick signal is reliable.
agree....but there is a chart setup i think which can play out assuming this is a temp bottom....retrace 61.8% (1.8600 level....) ABCD formation to break to go much deeper..
just a thought..
  • #84,602
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:32am Aug 28, 2008 10:32am
Quoting Jor09
this trend has been paying well to its followers.
My thoughts are that we have two areas to look at:
1-8244-219 where there is a confluence of many things including the weekly 365ema and some monthly fib levels.
2-8180 area where we have amonthly support plus the monthly 89ema.
Below these levels i'l look for 8094 which is the 74.6% of the move from 1.7049.
There is no bottom to this trend until a weekly signal presents itself; nothing smaller than a weekly candlestick signal is reliable.
I tend to agree with your comments generally. Attached is my weekly chart screenshot as it is at present, I see what I call a 'Reversal Extreme' set-up developing,... the trigger to which involves the open and close of a (in this case) definate bullish candle when the cci (bottom indicator) has hooked back inside it's bol as all other oscillators are at extreme levels and price is deviated from it's own bols.

The set-up looks to be still developing on that chart.

Finishing here for day, bye all
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ex member
  • #84,603
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:33am Aug 28, 2008 10:33am
Quoting onsfx
Right on steelhead im seeing the same thing man

What I would like to see happen is for it to break teh 8300 area. Here is the reason. If it does it will get most traders panicing to go short off the break of 8300. That is the perfect situation to take a long position and take there money. As we know most breakouts are false breakouts.

I guarantee you one thing. Everyone and the mouse will be wanting to trade to the short side if it breaks this level, and I will be smilin going the other way.
  • #84,604
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:35am Aug 28, 2008 10:35am
Quoting allserene
Watch your parking meters and keep those s/l's on at all times - I used to ride bareback but I don't nowadays
Exactly the same as me!

An expensive lesson was learnt! I also take money where I can-- greed is out the door!
  • #84,605
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:36am Aug 28, 2008 10:36am
Quoting steelhead
What I would like to see happen is for it to break teh 8300 area. Here is the reason. If it does it will get most traders panicing to go short off the break of 8300. That is the perfect situation to take a long position and take there money. As we know most breakouts are false breakouts.

I guarantee you one thing. Everyone and the mouse will be wanting to trade to the short side if it breaks this level, and I will be smilin going the other way.
Sounds like a plan to me, Alright people please short as much as u can i need to make some money
  • #84,606
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:40am Aug 28, 2008 10:40am
Quoting onsfx
Sounds like a plan to me, Alright people please short as much as u can i need to make some money
this is set up to go much lower...believe me if it break 1.8300 by 20 pips u will short also ..it cant go there in one go thou..i think ....the market is slightly returning to normal

where it just doesnt break everything it sees..
  • #84,607
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:43am Aug 28, 2008 10:43am
Quoting nAVIN2007
agree....but there is a chart setup i think which can play out assuming this is a temp bottom....retrace 61.8% (1.8600 level....) ABCD formation to break to go much deeper..
just a thought..
yes this area is signifacant but this thing is a falling rock that I haven't traded anything like it. it just keeps going without any meaningful retracement and i don't think any elloit waves analysist could account for this. I will take long IFF something like a weekly bullish engulfing or pin bar is there.
  • #84,608
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:47am Aug 28, 2008 10:47am
I am looking at things like this:

Sometimes technicals and even fundamentals take a back seat to Geo-political and Geo-enviromental events..........We are haveing what most likely will be a major Hurricane and negatively effect the Oil Production of the U.S.

Oil is up to $120 reflecting the advent of Gustuv however the oil market seems to be in a holding mode waiting for more info on the direction of the storm and the damage it causes.

This is what is causing the tight range in GU.

A couple of days ago, after FOMC min.'s, I called a Hurricane Trade, opened long at 8372 and picked up around 80 pips. Since then I have tried several more longs but had to close them with just a few pips profit. This just shows how strong the down trend is.

I am going to continue buying the dips (i am also selling rallies since i believe we are in a ranging market for now) in antisipation of an increase in the Price of Oil, which will surely come if Gustav slams into the Oil Rigs. Even now they are shutting down production and preparing for evacuation, which will cause somewhat of a shortage even if the storm doesn't cause damage.

How does this relate to the technicals? This event could cause a pull back on the day chart to one of the Fibo lines. The .236% is @ 8715!!! Befor the down trend resumes.

We have all been looking for some pull back to satisfy the technicas and if things work as expected with Gustuv then this 8300 level could hold for a while.

If I am wrong I am nimble enough to deal with it.

  • #84,609
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:49am Aug 28, 2008 10:49am
Quoting nAVIN2007
this is set up to go much lower...believe me if it break 1.8300 by 20 pips u will short also ..it cant go there in one go thou..i think ....the market is slightly returning to normal

where it just doesnt break everything it sees..

Navin do you really think that the folks that move the market are going to sell this thing if it breaks this level?

Tell me you are not serious. The folks that move this market will be building long positions if this level breaks. Why you ask? They know that everyone and there Geico will be going short.

That is how it works man that is how this market works. They were selling this 600-700 pips ago not now. They will get all of you thinking short and reverse it the other way it happens all the time.
  • #84,610
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:55am Aug 28, 2008 10:55am
  • #84,611
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:56am Aug 28, 2008 10:56am
Quoting steelhead
Navin do you really think that the folks that move the market are going to sell this thing if it breaks this level?

Tell me you are not serious. The folks that move this market will be building long positions if this level breaks. Why you ask? They know that everyone and there Geico will be going short.

That is how it works man that is how this market works. They were selling this 600-700 pips ago not now. They will get all of you thinking short and reverse it the other way it happens all the time.
thats why im long and short.....i want this to go to 1.7 quick there in looking for a pin bar setup or something amazing to make me think long..but i need it to move several hundrend pips to get it right...i already accept this lose......but its a challenge to see if i can turn it round...
  • #84,612
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:57am Aug 28, 2008 10:57am
went short big at .8295(on the break)

SL to breakeven
up 30pips so far...
  • #84,613
  • Aug 28, 2008 10:57am Aug 28, 2008 10:57am
what the hell....
  • #84,614
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:00am Aug 28, 2008 11:00am
Quoting akirax
went short big at .8295(on the break)

SL to breakeven
up 30pips so far...
close 5 lots at 8250, let the other 5 ride or BE.
  • #84,615
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:01am Aug 28, 2008 11:01am
Quoting nAVIN2007
what the hell....
this plays out perfectly http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=84586
  • #84,616
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:01am Aug 28, 2008 11:01am
for some strange reason people love pissing against the wind, TREND IS DOWN, selling is easy money! come on why in the world are pple bottom fishing? ! picking tops and bottoms fast way to blow account...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,617
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:04am Aug 28, 2008 11:04am
SELL INTO FAILED RALLIES!!! its really not that difficult to comprend, ive just covered some of a huge short position, this is the time all traders should take advantage of the trend, seems totally bizarre to go against it, the only time in past few weeks i pushed buy is to cover my shorts!!
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,618
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:05am Aug 28, 2008 11:05am
Quoting nAVIN2007
what the hell....
why are surprised Nav, it was inevintable trend is down, do not try and pick bottoms - u will lose ur account trying to do so, trust me
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,619
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:05am Aug 28, 2008 11:05am
Quoting fx local
for some strange reason people love pissing against the wind, TREND IS DOWN, selling is easy money! come on why in the world are pple bottom fishing? ! picking tops and bottoms fast way to blow account...
  • #84,620
  • Aug 28, 2008 11:09am Aug 28, 2008 11:09am
Quoting fx local
why are surprised Nav, it was inevintable trend is down, do not try and pick bottoms - u will lose ur account trying to do so, trust me


Im long at 1.8250. Don't listen to em navin. They do exactly what the big boys want them to do. Perfect four hour candle close. If im wrong im wrong losses are a part of the game. stop loss at 1.8160. looking for at least 150 pips.

Labor day coming up. Oil should shoot up for the holiday weekend.
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