Cable Update (GBPUSD)

The guess short more, Reliable

SL 1.8406

Nav, how old are you?

Silver Lining In Tarnished Sterling Call

NEW YORK -- Don't trade without stops, they say.
Perhaps "they" say that because, if your trade is stopped out then you can at least usually boast that at least your stop was well thought at.
In my case, my long-term stop for long GBP/USD trades has some support. I've got another chance to shine.
On May 21, when the pound was trading near $1.9630, I wrote in this column that decisive trading above the $2.0580-$2.1166 resistance band would be the technical signal for an uptrend to an initial interim top at $2.4265.
Now, stipulating a break of resistance as a technical condition for a higher move is always good form. It's what conservative traders do all the time using judicious stops. In this case, such a stipulation spared me a complete humiliation. In fact, the pound topped last month at $2.0162, roughly four cents shy of my projected $2.0580 resistance.
Not bad, I'd say.
On the other hand, the pound has fallen sharply to trade near $1.8282, which turns out to be the low for its downtrend from the November 2007 high of $2.1166. Long-term charts suggest the pound is technically weak below $2.0911 and that it's going for initial target support in the $1.7090-$1.6738 band. Potential interim low within the band are $1.6973 and $1.6855, it appears now.
I can say in my own behalf that my May column suggested a theoretical nearest stop for long-term trades at $1.6895. That's at least consistent with the above-mentioned projection of $1.7090-$1.6738 support for the current downtrend.
The weekly chart implies that the pound is crowding a potential interim bottom at $1.8235. A corrective bounce from that support might be targeting $1.8441. But if $1.8235 support is taken out, then the pound would be targeting $1.7960. In that case, take profit at $1.8166 and at $1.8029.
Finally, I should disclose that my May column suggested that the pound probably was going for $2.2764 at least. Now that's the best case for tight stops that I can imagine.

Hey Navin,
I'm long from what appears (???) or -appeared to be 'double bottom
around 1.8321. What stinks is though, she surely ain't breaking
the 1.8400's yet either. (Bears are having fun). For now it's
grab what you can still 'guess.
Have a great one,

Jeff... P.S. More on my huger than you losses some other time,
'Check back in 'little later! !

my long opened: 8390 TP: 8459, sl 8335

what make u do this..?

reasoning behind the trade?

Short at 1.8370..
1 hr is starting to look bullish tho..

why??? 36..

G/L with your trade, and to all others holding over the mixed lot of U.s data releses due soon...no idea the effect of it, the gdp looks potentially $ positive on the forecast which is the main release but the others particularly GDP price index and personal consumption complicates it!!

it looks like my hedge is a lost cause...only compoud losses..i need to find a top or a bottom...in a market has neither.....

my reason is outlined in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=84537

although my confidence isnt 100% because i needed the hourly candle to close above the triangle - which it didnt so, this can still go either way; nonetheless, im prepared!

heres what im seeing now.

08:30 08/28 US JOBLESS CLAIMS -10K TO 425K IN AUG 23 WK; 425K EXPECTED
08:30 08/28 US 2Q PRE GDP +3.3% V ADV +1.9%;FINL SALES+4.8%(ADV +3.9%)


wow big us figure

ok. stopped out; now reversed trade @ 333- double the units of my last trade.. TP open

I agree

my profit limit was hit with that.
im done for today.
I have to study now
Good luck to you guys.

some good stuff bones,

30min and 15min charts look horrible atm, congestion, 5min not a lot prettier.

Better than forecast u.s data sees another dip to the Dly M2, Wkly S2 area 8315 meeting more buyers, holding off the tuesday lows 8285 area (for now?)

All in all pretty congested between there and the 8405highs today, the downside having less congestion below the local lows at 8315area