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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #84,141
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:00am Aug 26, 2008 11:00am
Navin,

Sorry to hear you having troubles. I thought your analysis over the last few days has been improving. I hope you get the emotions under control, I went through a bad phase of that a little while ago.

I think in the short term cable may still go up a bit more, and in the long term I'm still bearish.

That being said, I'm not in a cable trade atm. I'm waiting for the downtrend to clearly resume before entering again. Made some good pips in the London session and don't want to give them back in the difficult NY session.

I hope you get your groove back.

G10
Enlightened.
  • #84,142
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:01am Aug 26, 2008 11:01am
Quoting plumiash
whoa!
nav, are you short at those level?

no way...im just fedup now so i going in all charts...having a look cannot hurt..
  • #84,143
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:02am Aug 26, 2008 11:02am
Quoting fx local
what ever works 4 u, money talks i guess, im not even looking at charts that much in august just selling rallies heavily, strategy that is paying off, will go back to charts when something changes, ie when sentiment shifts from dollar strength and charts show signs on basing, until then i see one way traffic - what can a chart possibly tell u when trend is soo one sided and obvious just sell and go with the flow
I agree with you, going with rallies and taking trades Following the big picture is defenitely safer and pays BIG. I do that also ofcourse, but in mean while currency has to breath before continuing to its direction, so those are the little moves that i take advantage of. Ofcourse this doesnt happen all the time, but i do take them when i have enough room to the opposite side of the trend to take my +30pips. Unless i see a reversal is when i exit manually or lock in some profits... Happy trading
  • #84,144
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:06am Aug 26, 2008 11:06am
Quoting nAVIN2007
no way...im just fedup now so i going in all charts...having a look cannot hurt..
You only going to get yourself even more frustrated and especially now that the market is really not doing much. I think you should get away from the charts for a good 6 hours or so and you will be back fresh calling out profitable trades again...
  • #84,145
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:17am Aug 26, 2008 11:17am
Quoting Shilva
hehe......the butterfly union is making a strong case.

Oil will go up. It's hurricans season and it'd time for a Hurricane Trade!

I think the oil market is consolidating in preperation right now and as soon as fomc is out of the way I am looking for long GU.

Right now I am thinking that if there is a spike down I will Buy...... Definately, if there is a spike up I will get in long on any pull back.

Long GU ? Are you sure about it? I think its going to 1.7XXX
  • #84,146
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:18am Aug 26, 2008 11:18am
Quoting gagakrimba
Long GU ? Are you sure about it? I think its going to 1.7XXX
lower
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #84,147
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:19am Aug 26, 2008 11:19am
Fed Minutes: Next Move Is to Boost Interest Rates
Topics:Interest Rates | Inflation | Ben Bernanke | Employment | Consumers | Federal Reserve | Federal Budget (U.S.) | Economy (Global) | Economy (U.S.)



By CNBC.com With Wires | 26 Aug 2008 | 02:12 PM ET
Font size: http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ader/f_dcr.jpghttp://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...der/f_incr.jpg

Most Federal Reserve officials at their meeting in August didn't believe the Fed's key interest rate was too low given harder-to-get credit conditions straining consumers and businesses alike, minutes of the meeting show.
But looking ahead, the next direction for rates is probably up, the minutes said.
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...shington_2.jpg
The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, DC.

The minutes provide insight into the Fed's thinking at the Aug. 5 meeting, when policymakers decided to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 2 percent for the second straight meeting.
At the meeting, members of the Federal Open Market Committee agreed that softening labor markets, high energy prices and a continuing housing contraction would weigh on growth in coming quarters.
"In addition, members saw continuing downside risks to this outlook, particularly reflecting possible further deterioration in financial conditions," the Fed said in the minutes.

RELATED LINKS








Current DateTime: 11:15:28 26 Aug 2008
LinksList Documentid: 26408263

  1. <LI class="ll_bullet cFont cf11 clr">Read the Fed Minutes <LI class="ll_bullet cFont cf11 clr">The Worst Is Not Over for Global Economy http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...video_blue.gif <LI class="ll_bullet cFont cf11 clr">The Worst Is Not Over for Global Economy http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...video_blue.gif <LI class="ll_bullet cFont cf11 clr">50/50 Chance Inflation to Keep Rising
  2. More Economic News






Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
—Reuters and AP contributed to this report.
2008 CNBC.com

Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #84,148
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:21am Aug 26, 2008 11:21am
Not very good at copy and paste but thought some of you may want to see the item below.
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #84,149
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:43am Aug 26, 2008 11:43am
Quoting Forextrader4
You only going to get yourself even more frustrated and especially now that the market is really not doing much. I think you should get away from the charts for a good 6 hours or so and you will be back fresh calling out profitable trades again...
i think your right ....im gonna wait for it to go up then sell the b*tch to 1.7
  • #84,150
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:47am Aug 26, 2008 11:47am
FOMC are cuckoo

USD is shooting up and bound to hit exports, oil is at an artificial low and could reverse at any second with all the geopolitical crap - mccain wants a nuclear exchange with russia over territory the size of the average albanian hen pen, lybia involved in a hijacking, north korea changes its mind over disabling nuclear, banks tottering on the edge in a full blown credit crisis and - and they are talking about raising rates !

get real FOMC

I used to know this little old polish guy who read the sunday tabloids - he thought he could leave his wife of 40 years and get a sexy young model because they like older men - it said so in the sunday paper

I think the FOMC are similarly deluded
  • #84,151
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:04pm Aug 26, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting allserene
FOMC are cuckoo

USD is shooting up and bound to hit exports, oil is at an artificial low and could reverse at any second with all the geopolitical crap - mccain wants a nuclear exchange with russia over territory the size of the average albanian hen pen, lybia involved in a hijacking, north korea changes its mind over disabling nuclear, banks tottering on the edge in a full blown credit crisis and - and they are talking about raising rates !

get real FOMC

I used to know this little old polish guy who read the sunday tabloids - he thought he could leave his wife of 40 years and get a sexy young model because they like older men - it said so in the sunday paper

I think the FOMC are similarly deluded
the world has gone mad....
  • #84,152
  • Aug 26, 2008 12:57pm Aug 26, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
i think its going up now ....this movement down was a retracement...all of a sudden we getting them again it looks like....i think the dollar will get weak ..but im not trading this thought cause i will get it again...

any thoughts on this?
sterling has not bottomed yet Nav, there is no clear signals of yet, both on charts or sentiment change, consenus among most pple is that sterling on track to move even much lower - that is not a surprise. trying to pick bottoms is very hard to do, u dont need to pick tops or bottoms to make money in forex....
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,153
  • Aug 26, 2008 1:04pm Aug 26, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
i lose even when i short...
u need to refocus ur trading bro, do u have a set trading plan? if u aint i strongly suggest u write one and stick the rules u set urself otherwise u going to go winning and losing merry go round.

forgot about analysing the market, u can be the best anaylst in the world with the best charts but it dont mean a thing if u aint got a sound MM trading plan. key is to anaylsis urself, ur own actions, ie what went wrong, what are u doing right and wrong?

Why most win? - 1. Persistance, 2. Patience, 3. Willingness to take risks

Why most lose? - 1. Lack of confidence, 2. No trading plan, 3. Execution, 4. Fear of loss
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,154
  • Aug 26, 2008 1:07pm Aug 26, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
thanks allen ...i shorted 3 times and lost and yet we sank ...i have become so cautious a bit to much since the last 3 weeks..
classic mistakes when starting in forex, we gamble with losses when we should cut them and cut winners when should hold them, thats the fight ur up against Nav,

cut ur losses let the winners run......
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,155
  • Aug 26, 2008 1:07pm Aug 26, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting allserene
It's like erections - confidence is fragile - once you lose it , it is a downward spiral (don't you just love that choice of words)

You need some little wins - 4 in a row - then you will be fine again
quality!
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,156
  • Aug 26, 2008 1:09pm Aug 26, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting allserene
FOMC will decide whether to cause a recession or let it happen on it's own

It's like dyeing you hair when you are going bald - pointless
Al, ur one liners are brilliant
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #84,157
  • Aug 26, 2008 1:29pm Aug 26, 2008 1:29pm
Gbp/Usd 30Min Chart Up Signal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu30m.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #84,158
  • Aug 26, 2008 1:40pm Aug 26, 2008 1:40pm
Quoting fx local
classic mistakes when starting in forex, we gamble with losses when we should cut them and cut winners when should hold them, thats the fight ur up against Nav,

cut ur losses let the winners run......
thx bro ..i will save what u have written...and right now make a trading plan ...i do need to analyse myself..and make myself strong...

thanks bro for the tips
  • #84,159
  • Aug 26, 2008 1:44pm Aug 26, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting fx local
u need to refocus ur trading bro, do u have a set trading plan? if u aint i strongly suggest u write one and stick the rules u set urself otherwise u going to go winning and losing merry go round.

forgot about analysing the market, u can be the best anaylst in the world with the best charts but it dont mean a thing if u aint got a sound MM trading plan. key is to anaylsis urself, ur own actions, ie what went wrong, what are u doing right and wrong?

Why most win? - 1. Persistance, 2. Patience, 3. Willingness to take risks

Why most lose? - 1. Lack of confidence, 2. No trading plan, 3. Execution, 4. Fear of loss
im doing all the thing that a person does to lose..big eye opener..
  • #84,160
  • Aug 26, 2008 2:00pm Aug 26, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting allserene
FOMC are cuckoo

USD is shooting up and bound to hit exports, oil is at an artificial low and could reverse at any second with all the geopolitical crap - mccain wants a nuclear exchange with russia over territory the size of the average albanian hen pen, lybia involved in a hijacking, north korea changes its mind over disabling nuclear, banks tottering on the edge in a full blown credit crisis and - and they are talking about raising rates !

get real FOMC

I used to know this little old polish guy who read the sunday tabloids - he thought he could leave his wife of 40 years and get a sexy young model because they like older men - it said so in the sunday paper

I think the FOMC are similarly deluded
The Fed will end up raising rates not because they want, but because they have to. Most of the pundits and cheerleaders on CNBC seem to think that the Fed is all powerful. All they do is follow the bond market. When bond rates begin to spike up, the Fed will follow. And it won't be because the US is the first to come out of the recession or any other news noise garbage. They will raise rates because the bond market will be finish with America's welfare program of debt and force the Fed to follow. When will it happen? Probably within the next 6 to 12 months. Bond yields are the key. Just watch.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
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