Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

#83,721
Aug 22, 2008 1:38pm Aug 22, 2008 1:38pm

Infinity
Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 5,732 Posts

Quoting Optimum

Disliked

up

Ignored

sorry...

Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success

#83,722
Aug 22, 2008 1:39pm Aug 22, 2008 1:39pm

nAVIN2007
Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts

Quoting steelhead

Disliked

Thanks man. I dont sell as market is going down I buy as market is going down. Again the time to sell this thing was 300 pips ago not now.

The olympics do have an effect on things. With China being the host nation that is a big reason for these down moves this month.

Now that that is coming to an end. Oil should spike up again.

Focus will again be turned to the crappy US economy.

Ignored

sorry but can u explain to me what china has to do with cable sinking and oil..im clueless when it comes to knowing this sort of stuff?

#83,723
Aug 22, 2008 1:40pm Aug 22, 2008 1:40pm

eohater
Joined May 2008 | Status: "One for all, and all for one" | 11,228 Posts

Quoting Infinity

Disliked

sorry...

Ignored

she's gonna stop at 0

Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!

#83,724
Aug 22, 2008 1:42pm Aug 22, 2008 1:42pm

Infinity
Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 5,732 Posts

Quoting eohater

Disliked

she's gonna stop at 0

Ignored

naked gu weekly chart is looking like this...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: week.GIF
Size: 15 KB

Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success

#83,725
Aug 22, 2008 1:46pm Aug 22, 2008 1:46pm

steelhead
| Commercial User | Joined May 2008 | 1,334 Posts

Quoting nAVIN2007

Disliked

sorry but can u explain to me what china has to do with cable sinking and oil..im clueless when it comes to knowing this sort of stuff?

Ignored

Its one of the major consumers of oil. It has basically had a two week holiday. I could be wrong but, im really feeling a nice move up for this pair in the coming weeks.

Guess we will see

#83,726
Aug 22, 2008 1:48pm Aug 22, 2008 1:48pm

eohater
Joined May 2008 | Status: "One for all, and all for one" | 11,228 Posts

It's funny when you look at the bigger picture and see that we're touching support from 2 years ago.

Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!

#83,727
Aug 22, 2008 1:50pm Aug 22, 2008 1:50pm

Infinity
Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Trader | 5,732 Posts

Quoting steelhead

Disliked

Its one of the major consumers of oil. It has basically had a two week holiday. I could be wrong but, im really feeling a nice move up for this pair in the coming weeks.

Guess we will see

Ignored

I think a good move up will come but if the week closes at these levels, we will go down some more first...

Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success

#83,728
Aug 22, 2008 1:51pm Aug 22, 2008 1:51pm

nAVIN2007
Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts

Quoting eohater

Disliked

It's funny when you look at the bigger picture and see that we're touching support from 2 years ago.

Ignored

Yeah took 2 years to go up and 3 weeks to come down......

#83,729
Aug 22, 2008 1:51pm Aug 22, 2008 1:51pm

PipAV8tor
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Live Trader with a Life!! | 245 Posts

Quoting steelhead

Disliked

Thanks man. I dont sell as market is going down I buy as market is going down. Again the time to sell this thing was 300 pips ago not now.

The olympics do have an effect on things. With China being the host nation that is a big reason for these down moves this month.

Now that that is coming to an end. Oil should spike up again.

Ignored

I would say it also has a lot to do with a moderately crappy economy in the UK that seems to be getting worse right now, as the US economy is showing some signs of rebounding. Still quite a ways to go but... As for oil, that huge run up was due to "fear of shortage" and a very profitable move for those who play on that fear. Show me where the shortage/crisis occurred. I don't know how much you know about the US, but the glutenous Americans ARE cutting back. I know it seems impossible, but people are car pooling and using public transportation etc...The only thing China has shown during the Olympics is their ability to influence the judges and rip off some medals that should have gone to other countries. JMHO.

#83,730
Aug 22, 2008 1:53pm Aug 22, 2008 1:53pm

steelhead
| Commercial User | Joined May 2008 | 1,334 Posts

Quoting Infinity

Disliked

I think a good move up will come but if the week closes at these levels, we will go down some more first...

Ignored

Good support here if we can get a four hour candle close near lows I will enter.

#83,731
Aug 22, 2008 1:57pm Aug 22, 2008 1:57pm

gammase1
Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,739 Posts

Quoting nAVIN2007

Disliked

sorry but can u explain to me what china has to do with cable sinking and oil..im clueless when it comes to knowing this sort of stuff?

Ignored

Can't speak for another poster, but there is a view that China has been holding back on its industrial production in the lead up to, and during, the Olympics, in a bid to reduce air pollution and traffic in and around Beijing. For this reason, some beleive China's demand for oil is not as great as usual, which, if true, could cause the price of Crude Oil to drop, meaning the dollar will rise etc...

Once the Olympics are out of the way, the belief is that China will ramp up production levels and throw money at the economy in a bid to stimulate growth -which looks set to fall by 2 full percentage points in 2009. This extra production in the economy will mean a greater demand for commodities, which may put upward pressure on the price of crude oil, which could weaken the dollar. It seems the focus on the Chinese government has moved from controlling inflation to promoting growth, especially since their headline inflation rate appears to be subsiding.

However, there is another school of thought that believes some of the spike in crude oil prices to $147 a barrel was in fact caused by China stockpiling huge quantities of the stuff in the months preceding the games, as they wanted to guarantee there would be no shortfalls or supply disruptions during the past fortnight when the eyes of the world are watching their coming out party. Such stockpiling by China would not register on any inventory data.

Personally, I don't believe any appreciation of Cable or crude oil next week, should it actually happen, can be attributed to the Olympics. I see Cable itching to follow the sharp fall in crude oil and get below 1.85, but traders are reluctant to do the necessary at the end of the trading week.

#83,732
Aug 22, 2008 2:00pm Aug 22, 2008 2:00pm

gammase1
Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,739 Posts

Quoting PipAV8tor

Disliked

I would say it also has a lot to do with a moderately crappy economy in the UK that seems to be getting worse right now, as the US economy is showing some signs of rebounding. Still quite a ways to go but... As for oil, that huge run up was due to "fear of shortage" and a very profitable move for those who play on that fear. Show me where the shortage/crisis occurred. I don't know how much you know about the US, but the glutenous Americans ARE cutting back. I know it seems impossible, but people are car pooling and using public transportation etc...The only thing China has shown during the Olympics is their ability to influence the judges and rip off some medals that should have gone to other countries. JMHO.

Ignored

Agree 100%, apart from the bit about China influencing the judges and ripping off medals. The UK's economy is dire, second quarter "growth" recorded at 0% Q/Q, AND the worst is definitely yet to come.

#83,733
Aug 22, 2008 2:01pm Aug 22, 2008 2:01pm

nAVIN2007
Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts

Quoting gammase1

Disliked

Can't speak for another poster, but there is a view that China has been holding back on its industrial production in the lead up to, and during, the Olympics, in a bid to reduce air pollution and traffic in and around Beijing. For this reason, some beleive China's demand for oil is not as great as usual, which, if true, could cause the price of Crude Oil to drop, meaning the dollar will rise etc...

Once the Olympics are out of the way, the belief is that China will ramp up production levels and throw money at the economy in a bid to stimulate growth -which looks set to fall by 2 full percentage points in 2009. This extra production in the economy will mean a greater demand for commodities, which may put upward pressure on the price of crude oil, which could weaken the dollar. It seems the focus on the Chinese government has moved from controlling inflation to promoting growth, especially since their headline inflation rate appears to be subsiding.

However, there is another school of thought that believes some of the spike in crude oil prices to $147 a barrel was in fact caused by China stockpiling huge quantities of the stuff in the months preceding the games, as they wanted to guarantee there would be no shortfalls or supply disruptions during the past fortnight when the eyes of the world are watching their coming out party. Such stockpiling by China would not register on any inventory data.

Personally, I don't believe any appreciation of Cable or crude oil next week, should it actually happen, can be attributed to the Olympics. I see Cable itching to follow the sharp fall in crude oil and get below 1.85, but traders are reluctant to do the necessary at the end of the trading week.

Ignored

THANKS GUYS ...