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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #6,061
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:55am Feb 14, 2007 9:55am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
I had a good look at cable yesterday and I saw that the other 3 majors are in sinc but that cable was going against them... so I thought mmm I think cable is going up for today and it did...

Lesson learned if cable is the only one not in sinc with the other 3 majors expect it to come in line with the other 3.
  • #6,062
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:00am Feb 14, 2007 10:00am
Okay, I quit.

News is done (until the NZD release this afternoon); it's colder than I care for; we're iced in; and Bernanke's giving us another snow job. That's about all I can take for one day.

Catch you guys later. And please God, save the Queen, the Pound, the Pence and remember the greenback from time-to-time. Maybe even put something of value behind it once again (other than the "full faith and credit")!!
  • #6,063
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:03am Feb 14, 2007 10:03am
Cable has bounced back down off the long running daily trend line of 3+ months.

I think 9800+ needs to be judged against a break through 1.9625

JMO
  • #6,064
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:03am Feb 14, 2007 10:03am
goonergonebad,

Regarding your question some hrs ago here, yeah what I meant about imminent USD breakout was to the downside (already happened now, t'was the EUR/USD breakout from its 3040 and 3060 resistances, dragging along GBP/USD with it). Now Euro and Sterling are running away upwards.
Tra-X
  • #6,065
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:06am Feb 14, 2007 10:06am
Would someome please explain the significance of this? Thanks.
  • #6,066
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:13am Feb 14, 2007 10:13am
Quoting IRISH37
Would someome please explain the significance of this? Thanks.

"This"

–pronoun 1.(used to indicate a person, thing, idea, state, event, time, remark, etc., as present, near, just mentioned or pointed out, supposed to be understood, or by way of emphasis): This is my coat. 2.(used to indicate one of two or more persons, things, etc., referring to the one nearer in place, time, or thought; opposed to that): This is Liza and that is Amy. 3.(used to indicate one of two or more persons, things, etc., implying a contrast or contradistinction; opposed to that): I'd take that instead of this. 4.what is about to follow: Now hear this! Watch this! –adjective 5.(used to indicate a person, place, thing, or degree as present, near, just indicated or mentioned, or as well-known or characteristic): These people are my friends. This problem has worried me for a long time. 6.(used to indicate the nearer in time, place, or thought of two persons, things, etc.; opposed to that). 7.(used to imply mere contradistinction; opposed to that). 8.(used in place of an indefinite article for emphasis): I was walking down the street when I heard this explosion. –adverb 9.(used with adjectives and adverbs of quantity or extent) to the extent or degree indicated: this far; this softly. —Idiom 10.with this, following this; hereupon: With this, he threw down his glass and left the table.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,067
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:15am Feb 14, 2007 10:15am
Quoting SeekingLight
But the only thing that's relevant to be able to trade is that there is movement, not that there are or are not reasons for it.
That's a joke right??
Quoting SeekingLight
One need not understand the complex formulas of gravity to ride a sleigh, no?
If your eyes say hey that thing is sloping down, and having seen repeatedly that putting a sleigh on it will make it go down, why figure out the coefficients, variables, etc....
Adapt. Improvise. Dominate.

Variables change by definition; one day someone could dig a monstrous pit in the midst of your lovely downhill course and ruin your day! Similarly, well thought out plans based on TA can be ruined when a trader ignored FA. And don't misunderstand me, I'm not denigrating TA's value. My position is to marry the two FA + TA = FATA pockets!

Quoting SeekingLight
Sure it's "interesting" what all the folks talk about etc, but in the end if you can trade the charts autistically and win - why worry about the rest if there is no excessive need to? KISS and all that
Obviously your experience level and success exceeds the majority of traders at FF. As I said earlier, to everyone, Do what you do best!

Okay. As they say in the Baptist Church, this is my third closing so I'll close with this....

Trade well and prosper.
  • #6,068
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:15am Feb 14, 2007 10:15am
Quoting Traex
goonergonebad,

Regarding your question some hrs ago here, yeah what I meant about imminent USD breakout was to the downside (already happened now, t'was the EUR/USD breakout from its 3040 and 3060 resistances, dragging along GBP/USD with it). Now Euro and Sterling are running away upwards.
Thanks for your reply.

I still think today's cable saga has mileage potentially to the down side. In reality the GBP news was average and US news nondescript. However, the fact is, it seems to me - if the big players want to move the market in a particular direction, they will (I don't know how they manage to co-ordinate their efforts - but they do).

Anyway, I'll have to wait, see, look and learn...
  • #6,069
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:17am Feb 14, 2007 10:17am
Quoting Leugimp
"This"

–pronoun 1.(used to indicate a person, thing, idea, state, event, time, remark, etc., as present, near, just mentioned or pointed out, supposed to be understood, or by way of emphasis): This is my coat. 2.(used to indicate one of two or more persons, things, etc., referring to the one nearer in place, time, or thought; opposed to that): This is Liza and that is Amy. 3.(used to indicate one of two or more persons, things, etc., implying a contrast or contradistinction; opposed to that): I'd take that instead of this. 4.what is about to follow: Now hear this! Watch this! –adjective 5.(used to indicate a person, place, thing, or degree as present, near, just indicated or mentioned, or as well-known or characteristic): These people are my friends. This problem has worried me for a long time. 6.(used to indicate the nearer in time, place, or thought of two persons, things, etc.; opposed to that). 7.(used to imply mere contradistinction; opposed to that). 8.(used in place of an indefinite article for emphasis): I was walking down the street when I heard this explosion. –adverb 9.(used with adjectives and adverbs of quantity or extent) to the extent or degree indicated: this far; this softly. —Idiom 10.with this, following this; hereupon: With this, he threw down his glass and left the table.
You are sooooo not right!!!!!!!!!
  • #6,070
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:24am Feb 14, 2007 10:24am
Quoting Leugimp
One specifically chosen example is hardly confirming evidence. Also, TA wasn't the issue here, FA was. How more accurate would your pattern be if you knew for a fact that it closed on volume.
I can offer three more charts I found on the james thread and I save all of the gifs I create locally, too...but I don't label well, have about half a dozen saying either "NFP" or "news" and they all do the same thing, illustrate what I was trying to say - you can either trade a setup before or after news hits and "get away with it", i.e. make a profit without a single clue about what the news was about or what it "means".
And if there isn't a setup - don't trade it

Btw, I have no idea why volume would have any relevance nor what you mean by it. Never "used" it in any way. *shrugs and looks a bit helpless*

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=2260
I think it was 4:00pm USD Consumer Sentiment (p)

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=2216

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=2134
Again USDCHF
I think 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m

There might be more, like GJ and cable last week when the BOE hit, but I already posted about that then here.

Anyway, I'm not out to prove anyone as wrong and me as right.
The market humbles everyone on the regular, it's how it is
That's why I said it breaks down to r/r.

I just want people to see that while it's "nice" that one understands what's going on around one in terms of embedding in money politics etc, it's not a "can't go without it" for trading.

I'm off, too, I'm starting to feel like I'm wasting people's time

Good luck guys
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,071
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:25am Feb 14, 2007 10:25am
Thank you Moneymaster. All I asked for was a little information.
  • #6,072
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:28am Feb 14, 2007 10:28am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Which came first, the pound or the Queen?
The pound first. When she was born she was more than a pound already.
  • #6,073
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:30am Feb 14, 2007 10:30am
Quoting Traex
goonergonebad,

Regarding your question some hrs ago here, yeah what I meant about imminent USD breakout was to the downside (already happened now, t'was the EUR/USD breakout from its 3040 and 3060 resistances, dragging along GBP/USD with it). Now Euro and Sterling are running away upwards.
Just one other thing - Being a newbie to forex, am I right to assume that a "breakout" can go down as well as up?
  • #6,074
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:35am Feb 14, 2007 10:35am
Quoting IRISH37
Would someome please explain the significance of this? Thanks.
Hi Irish,

A trend line on a 4 hour chart based on last 250 period. (a period of course being 4 hours on a 4 hour chart) exponential moving average.

Your charting software should give you a decent explanation of an exponential moving average.

Hope this helps.
  • #6,075
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:40am Feb 14, 2007 10:40am
Quoting goonergonebad
Hi Irish,

A trend line on a 4 hour chart based on last 250 period. (a period of course being 4 hours on a 4 hour chart) exponential moving average.

Your charting software should give you a decent explanation of an exponential moving average.

Hope this helps.
P.S.
As to the significance, I am not too sure myself. Obviously, some historical milestone obstacle that if breached signifies major upheaval, berating of all near and dear and possibly even slapping yoursel across the face with kippers or some such smelly fish.
  • #6,076
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:40am Feb 14, 2007 10:40am
Thanks Goonergone bad. I assume a trendline break is confirmation of the trend?
  • #6,077
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:48am Feb 14, 2007 10:48am
Quoting SeekingLight

....I'm off, too, I'm starting to feel like I'm wasting people's time

Good luck guys
Never a waste of time my friend....As for volume, what is there not to understand. TA and all of its patterns, S&R, etc are all built around the foundation of volume analysis. A head and shoulders formation is only valid(in the sense of historical favorable probability of following through) when it has certain volume characteristics. Breakouts are highly probable when confirmed with volume, cup and handle - same thing - the list goes on and on. TA without volume is simply looking at clouds and picking out farm animals, a strong wind can come at any time and wipe that image away.

That is why I say that patterns emerged in specific releases - or patterns you can decipher about any particular release are worth noting. There is volume in those patterns which can make them repeatable over and over with some level of confidence.

Every time you trade those engulfing candles, you are doing so assuming that there is volume on that candle - wether you realize it or not. That is why in forex we view the session as important. Will you trade a 1 hr engulfing candle at 4PM ET on GBPJPY? If not - why not - because of volume thats why not. If you do and win its not because of the candle, I mean you do have a 50-50 shot right. Volume is everything in TA and the quicker you accept this and learn to improvise for this lack of info in forex, the better off you will be.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,078
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:52am Feb 14, 2007 10:52am
Quoting goonergonebad
Just one other thing - Being a newbie to forex, am I right to assume that a "breakout" can go down as well as up?
Yes, it can occur either side of a 'channel' or 'triangle'. But usually if a channel is slanted upwards, the breakout will most likely occur on the downside. Vice versa for a downwards channel. Sometimes a false breakout occurs, like breaking out on the upside first then suddenly reversing downwards. Hope it helps.

Example of recent EUR/USD breakout:
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #6,079
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:56am Feb 14, 2007 10:56am
Quoting IRISH37
Thanks Goonergone bad. I assume a trendline break is confirmation of the trend?
Irish...big moving averages are used by traders to find out "where they are".
I.e. they are AVERAGES of the recent price.
So if we stay above the AVERAGE, obviously you have to be making HIGHER prices.
If we go lower, the price has to be lower than on average.

As the MA is adjusted for each closed bar, it moves. Hence MA.

A move past these MAs CAN indicate something like this, but imho it's usually just a load of BS....you can find almost a dozen of Moving Averages that different people will tell you are the REALLY relevant ones. It's much easier to find those that work for you and then realize what they REALLY do.

Their real relevance to me for example is a TEMPORARY area of potential s/r.
If it's a slow MA, then it's longer term investors "sitting" there, waiting for price to come to them, to put on a trade.
If it's a faster one, then it's speculators trying to make a buck, waiting for a pullback to get back in on the action.

Again - it represents an AVERAGE of recent prices. What one makes of it is everyone's own interpretation.

Example:
All an MA cross is in the end, is saying: "hey, price has been higher than it's been for a while in the last few bits...huh...wonder if it's going up then"
While really it had to go up in the first place in order to change the moving average, no?

In short...averages tell you where the price has been on average for a set period of bars...

Out again, just had to say something/the impulse to help, since I didn't think "trendline" and "breakout" were something to directly associate with all MAs....even though some can act similiarly(at least in people's interpretation), see above...

Btw, thanks for all the credit MM, although I don't think I'm even half as good as the real senior traders on FF
And it will be a few lifetimes until I hit your bank account prolly

Cheers all
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,080
  • Feb 14, 2007 11:00am Feb 14, 2007 11:00am
Quoting IRISH37
Thanks Goonergone bad. I assume a trendline break is confirmation of the trend?
I am still learning about a lot of these terms myself. I am not really sure what constitutes a breakout. Does the next candle after the initial breakout have to definitely open above or below the trendline (depending on whether long or short breakout) or does it merely need to significantly breach the trend line. For me, the best indicators I have found in my early months are the 9, 20 and 50 EMAs on a 5 minute chart at start of day UK and start of day US.

If the 9EMA is above the 20EMA and the 20EMA is above the 50EMA with the candles above the 9EMA then potentially a long trend (obviously the earlier the observation of this setup the greater the potential trend and pips profit. The reverse is true for a down or short trend. Exit as soon as 9EMA starts reversing back to 20EMA. Always use a stop loss of at least 5 pips below (or above) the 50 EMA (as long as you caught the trend early). Don't join too late in the trend. If uncertain, leave it alone. Just like buses, another trend will come along, either in the pair you are looking at or in another pair.

Hope this helps.
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