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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #6,041
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:41am Feb 14, 2007 8:41am
Quoting SeekingLight
But in the normal progression of things I can point out basically almost any news release happened with a TA setup or at a critical TA juncture (one NFP had a USDCHF 1h PB 2 - 4 hours before it, those were easy 80 pips...other times you get similiar things like the PB/BEOB on the 4h before the BOE rate announcement last week, etc, etc, etc...and these setups expose themselves BEFORE the announcements..not that I'm in all those and trade every single one, but it's all there...)
Price action, a mere subset of TA imho, is FA's distant cousin and probably the simplest form of TA (other than TL bounces and MA crosses). PA doesn't count!!

Quoting SeekingLight
I'd rather trade what's on the charts already than what's yet to appear on anyones guess and interpretable in 50 directions after dissecting microfuss details in the fine print of releases...
SeekingLight, when you can see what other people can't see, you can do what others can't do.....or as Butch said to Sundance: "some people got vision, others wear bifocals!"

Quoting SeekingLight
But no disrespect meant, to each his own =)
That's why I like to say: Do what you do best! and indeed, no disrespect perceived, taken or extended.

Trade well and prosper.
  • #6,042
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:49am Feb 14, 2007 8:49am
Quoting SeekingLight
IMHO TA sets the bounds and reasons, news and fun stuff gives bloomberg an excuse to exist
Or: TA builds the house, lays the red carpet and the news is just the red ribbon cut so things can move again after the wait =)

Sure, if Trichet were to say hm, actually I think 1% is much nicer to have than 3%, let's go do that right now or Iran screams surprise, we gots da bomb and it's already primed, then throw away TA.

But in the normal progression of things I can point out basically almost any news release happened with a TA setup or at a critical TA juncture (one NFP had a USDCHF 1h PB 2 - 4 hours before it, those were easy 80 pips...other times you get similiar things like the PB/BEOB on the 4h before the BOE rate announcement last week, etc, etc, etc...and these setups expose themselves BEFORE the announcements..not that I'm in all those and trade every single one, but it's all there...)

I'd rather trade what's on the charts already than what's yet to appear on anyones guess and interpretable in 50 directions after dissecting microfuss details in the fine print of releases...
It's just tedious and it's not like if you look back at charts bars have labels that identify them as news based or not...."trade what you see, not what you think" ;D

Besides, I'm clueless as to intricate economic details, as I believe the really big people are pushing the big buttons, they most likely have different agendas

But no disrespect meant, to each his own =)
Somewhat agree, although one of the principle tools of TA is lacking us here and that is volume. While Fundies may be difficult to interpret all the time, they do inject volume into the market on Econ Releases - which is usually a predictable pattern that can be taken advantage of. Ok so this may be seen on the chart without even knowing what fundies are about, but the particular emerging patterns in the release themselves require at least your attention because we know that there is market psychology and volume involved, which makes them more reliable patterns than any other short term pattern that exists in Forex. Without volume, we can never classify too accurately any short term pattern, and news releases can be assumed that are supported by volume so it is important to recognize what patterns emerge within certain releases. These are TA patterns within the release and only such patterns can be consistently assumed to have volume confirmation.
How many ways can I possibly say the same thing - sorry.

Also, fundies involve much more than news trading, but also analyzing fundamental trends, etc. With this added dimension we can gain a stronger understanding of longer term trend and key areas within that trend attributable to changes in economic forces.

Any additional edge is a MoneyMaker - i'm not trying to tell which is better and have some drawn out conversation about it - point being, if you can get an edge using it, use it - if you stop looking for edges in trading, eventually the market will take away your existing ones little by little. Just like in any business - If you're not growing - you're sinking.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,043
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:51am Feb 14, 2007 8:51am
I am still holding long. We need resolution of 9608 area. If we build value and move up from this level. Next stop is the 9958 area. Good luck everyone.

DRT
http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-14-2007.PNG


Quoting DownRiverTrader
http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-11-2007.PNG
  • #6,044
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:55am Feb 14, 2007 8:55am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Price action, a mere subset of TA imho, is FA's distant cousin and probably the simplest form of TA (other than TL bounces and MA crosses). PA doesn't count!!


SeekingLight, when you can see what other people can't see, you can do what others can't do.....or as Butch said to Sundance: "some people got vision, others wear bifocals!"


That's why I like to say: Do what you do best! and indeed, no disrespect perceived, taken or extended.

Trade well and prosper.
Money, you are the most organized and succinct poster I have ever seen with loads of insight in every word. I dont know if I respect you more as a trader or as an educator.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,045
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:07am Feb 14, 2007 9:07am
taking partial profit at 9625 and wait for retracement to add more long at increased leverage
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,046
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:11am Feb 14, 2007 9:11am
test of 9590 in the least is expected
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,047
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:12am Feb 14, 2007 9:12am
Quoting Leugimp
test of 9590 in the least is expected
not advising to sell to it just an observation
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,048
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:19am Feb 14, 2007 9:19am
If we hold below 9625 in next 300 ticks, there is a liklihood of price now ping-ponging between 9625 and 9550-9565 level, with bias to the upside up to 9666(devils pivot). For this reason I will set my additional buy order at 9555 and sl on total position moved to 9535.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,049
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:27am Feb 14, 2007 9:27am
Quoting Leugimp
Money, you are the most organized and succinct poster I have ever seen with loads of insight in every word. I dont know if I respect you more as a trader or as an educator.
Thanks Leugimp,

And just look at the impact of Bernanke's speech....I still don't know What he said but whatever he said must have implied no rate increases for the greenback and it certainly moved the market.

Now when this is done, it's time to get back on the TA train, get some direction, make some money overnight or until the next announcement which I believe is as far away as......tomorrow!
  • #6,050
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:30am Feb 14, 2007 9:30am
Quoting Leugimp
Ok so this may be seen on the chart without even knowing what fundies are about, but the particular emerging patterns in the release themselves require at least your attention
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Price action, a mere subset of TA imho, is FA's distant cousin and probably the simplest form of TA (other than TL bounces and MA crosses). PA doesn't count!!
Now I don't know why PA shouldn't count if it accurately reflects market reality most of the time

Ok, here a simple chart illustration, let's just pretend there was no such thing as news for a few moments.

2 simple TA basic ideas + "something that doesn't count" + today:

A BUOB or engulfing candle is simply a sign of a rising market.
You enter either as it closes or on a retrace.

A breakout usually retraces back to the breakout level once more before taking off.

That's it. No bubbles, degree in economics or similiar necessary
(Just pulling your legs guys *smiles*)

And to illustrate, here is the chart, here are the 3 entries and the three choices of trade to have taken (I got in late / slept in late today and went for the +75 later on):
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,051
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:33am Feb 14, 2007 9:33am
Hilarious!!

The pen is indeed mightier than the sword!!

Bernanke's written comments moved the market. We're in the midst of a snow/ice storm in the Capital of the Free World, so his remarks on the Hill were delay by 15-20 or so minutes. Seems as though his remarks would have remained embargoed until just before he actually testified.
  • #6,052
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:36am Feb 14, 2007 9:36am
who was it swearing that we'll be at 1.9300 yesterday?

(P.S. London is the capital of the free world: we invented democracy)
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #6,053
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:39am Feb 14, 2007 9:39am
Quoting SeekingLight
Now I don't know why PA shouldn't count if it accurately reflects market reality most of the time

Ok, here a simple chart illustration, let's just pretend there was no such thing as news for a few moments.

2 simple TA basic ideas + "something that doesn't count" + today:

A BUOB or engulfing candle is simply a sign of a rising market.
You enter either as it closes or on a retrace.

A breakout usually retraces back to the breakout level once more before taking off.

That's it. No bubbles, degree in economics or similiar necessary
(Just pulling your legs guys *smiles*)
The flaw in your argument is that you assume the existence of the PA absent a pending news event. You presume the PAs would still be there if there was no news.

What I'm saying, in other words, because traders expect news positions are taken, currency is bought and sold in advance of the news thereby creating the PA upon which you subsequently base your actions. If there was no news, traders wouldn't enter those positions and the PA wouldn't appear on the chart.

That's it.
  • #6,054
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:44am Feb 14, 2007 9:44am
Quoting cgldsmth

(P.S. London is the capital of the free world: we invented democracy)
Which is why Plato drank tea and the word democracy stems from demons going crazy!
Demons go crazy, democracy

Sounds about right
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,055
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:45am Feb 14, 2007 9:45am
agree, democracy has set mankind back by centuries IMO.

anyway, we digress.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #6,056
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:46am Feb 14, 2007 9:46am
Quoting cgldsmth
who was it swearing that we'll be at 1.9300 yesterday?

(P.S. London is the capital of the free world: we invented democracy)


New York is the capital (note "tal" spelling") of the financial world.
Washington is the capitol (note "tol" spelling, forgive my earlier typo) of the free world.

Let's see London, .....

The sun never sets on the empire.... no that's not it;
Land of the Royals.... no that won't do either;
Colonizers and devotees of "Manifest Destiny"; naw....too polarizing.

Give me a moment, I'll come up with something because the Greeks, French and a few others might argue with that democratic thing.
  • #6,057
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:47am Feb 14, 2007 9:47am
Quoting SeekingLight
Now I don't know why PA shouldn't count if it accurately reflects market reality most of the time

Ok, here a simple chart illustration, let's just pretend there was no such thing as news for a few moments.

2 simple TA basic ideas + "something that doesn't count" + today:

A BUOB or engulfing candle is simply a sign of a rising market.
You enter either as it closes or on a retrace.

A breakout usually retraces back to the breakout level once more before taking off.

That's it. No bubbles, degree in economics or similiar necessary
(Just pulling your legs guys *smiles*)

And to illustrate, here is the chart, here are the 3 entries and the three choices of trade to have taken (I got in late / slept in late today and went for the +75 later on):
One specifically chosen example is hardly confirming evidence. Also, TA wasn't the issue here, FA was. How more accurate would your pattern be if you knew for a fact that it closed on volume. News releases give us that information and patterns such as the one you have shown, but to specific releases, also exist. If you can trade recognizable patterns in forex occuring at key pivots in price with the knowledge of volume confirmation(around news releases), that is a substantial edge.

And watch it with the bubbles comments willya. You can pull my leg once, but if done twice your liable to get the third leg.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #6,058
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:49am Feb 14, 2007 9:49am
the greeks thought about it and passed it west via rome and france, but Britain was the first to actually implement it properly (which is why we are at the beck'n'call of the great unwashed and ignorant).

God save the Queen, and therefore the Pound.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #6,059
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:55am Feb 14, 2007 9:55am
Quoting cgldsmth
the greeks thought about it and passed it west via rome and france, but Britain was the first to actually implement it properly (which is why we are at the beck'n'call of the great unwashed and ignorant).

God save the Queen, and therefore the Pound.
Which came first, the pound or the Queen?
  • #6,060
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:55am Feb 14, 2007 9:55am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
The flaw in your argument is that you assume the existence of the PA absent a pending news event. You presume the PAs would still be there if there was no news.

What I'm saying, in other words, because traders expect news positions are taken, currency is bought and sold in advance of the news thereby creating the PA upon which you subsequently base your actions. If there was no news, traders wouldn't enter those positions and the PA wouldn't appear on the chart.

That's it.
Of course that's true, funds etc pp all think that if someone says hike or no more hikes they can latch on a few months and ride a trend etc....they fall prey to the same logic

But the only thing that's relevant to be able to trade is that there is movement, not that there are or are not reasons for it.
One need not understand the complex formulas of gravity to ride a sleigh, no?
If your eyes say hey that thing is sloping down, and having seen repeatedly that putting a sleigh on it will make it go down, why figure out the coefficients, variables, etc....

(And to refer to the first two lines shortly: of course price doesn't stand still simply because there are no news, otherwise we'd have 80% flatlines and then news bursts. Or you'd have to argue there's always SOME sort of news at any point in time and this is exactly the sort of sillyness I read in these live FX commentaries all day....weather and random comments and whatnot moving things...they're more esoteric than a carnival crystal ball lady when all you need to do is look at the chart and see what's up most of the time..)

The "real world reasons" why price moves can be safely ignored, as long as any "real world" decision has to make an impression on the charted/recorded price movement.
That in turn means that it creates patterns/setups, behavior, and that's all a TA trader does - recognize and react on what he sees.
Why bother what the "real reasons" are if the bar logic works more often than it does not?
R/R takes care of the rest.

Sure it's "interesting" what all the folks talk about etc, but in the end if you can trade the charts autistically and win - why worry about the rest if there is no excessive need to? KISS and all that

Simplifying here, but you get the idea I assume

Not telling anyone how to go about it, but merely explaining my reasoning / logic behind my own perspective
Trust price. Know yourself.
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