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Zeusjoes Market-Neutral Hedge Strategy

  • #601
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:27am Aug 20, 2008 11:27am
was the log price differance indicator posted ? or can you post it
i did search the paper clip

Thank you


Quoting magictrader
Ok, I've got fresh new MT4 platform and it works ok.

So this is one pair concept of using differences between two negative correlated pairs. As you can see it can predict tops and bottoms for one pair. With good MM and waiting for confirmation (Fibo, candle formations etc.) it will be profitable.
  • #602
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:30am Aug 20, 2008 11:30am
It's in post #408.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=408
  • #603
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:47am Aug 20, 2008 11:47am
Here is why it should works:
(there are even divergences on standard deviations)
Let's see if EU will go up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU UC.JPG Size: 191 KB
  • #604
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:23pm Aug 20, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting magictrader
Let's see if EU will go up...
Maybe yes, maybe no...

- For the first three trades today, you win stress free(!) 95+27+85 = 207 Pips

As observations:
- The RSI is not a great help
- For the correlation of the two pairs you can see what position must have the main line and the trigger line. If the distance between the lines is greather, also the win is greather...

For your signal at 17:30:
- The Price oscillator isn't below the lower Bollinger Band
- The oscillator value is over 3 std.dev.
- RSI is OK
- The corellation distance is very small.

Win potential is under 30 pips...
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf_hedge9.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #605
  • Edited 1:01pm Aug 20, 2008 12:44pm | Edited 1:01pm
I agree, but there is also possibility to make transaction only for one pair to minimize risk.

Signals are great.
What SL do you recommend?

Where is Hedging Hedge Correlation indicator because I can't find it?
Thanks SwingMan.

EDIT:
ok, got it
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=94
  • #606
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:25pm Aug 20, 2008 1:25pm
this is my latest trade (It's more "aggresive" entry because like SwingMan write, StDev was not below -3 and BB)

But I saw some XABCD patterns, Fibo levels (green fields) and candle formation.
Now for over +30 pips, SL is on BE so stress free trade. I'm waiting for the average or for +60 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade.JPG Size: 101 KB
  • #607
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:30pm Aug 20, 2008 2:30pm
Trade close for +40 pips because it was so close to middle line.
Let's see what will happen tomorrow.
  • #608
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:25pm Aug 20, 2008 3:25pm
OK, I'm going also sleeping with other 64 pips.
2,700$ is enough for today...

My trade, with your entry point:
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf_hedge11.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #609
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:35pm Aug 20, 2008 3:35pm
Great to see that you finaly found time to earn the fruits of your programming.
  • #610
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:43pm Aug 20, 2008 3:43pm
A very interesting comment from me, please think about:

Today, in the SpielersHedge strategie we have a divergence above 0.50%, with two short entrys and without wins until now.

In the same time, with my indicators we have one short and three long trades, with 270 pips win. I don't believe that SH can achieve this...
  • #611
  • Aug 20, 2008 3:54pm Aug 20, 2008 3:54pm
Nice to hear that.
SwingMan what are your settings for HHCorrelation?
Mine is so "flat".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hedginghedge.JPG Size: 65 KB
  • #612
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:02pm Aug 20, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting magictrader
what are your settings for HHCorrelation?
Mine is so "flat".
It coud be, because the correlation is flat.

From time to time you must restart the correlation indicator. It repaints, and I haven't time to solve this problem.
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.PNG Size: 38 KB
  • #613
  • Aug 20, 2008 6:15pm Aug 20, 2008 6:15pm
Backtests should reveal that pairs trading spot FX instruments can perform exceptionally well when the spread is range bound. What approaches have you guys taken when the spread is in a major trend?
  • #614
  • Aug 20, 2008 9:52pm Aug 20, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting SwingMan
A very interesting comment from me, please think about:

Today, in the SpielersHedge strategie we have a divergence above 0.50%, with two short entrys and without wins until now.

In the same time, with my indicators we have one short and three long trades, with 270 pips win. I don't believe that SH can achieve this...
SwingMan,
RE:270 pips win:
Is this taking only the EURUSD position short (one) and EURUSD position long (three) or is it taking both EURUSD and USDCHF short at the same time? Or is it taking the EURCHF position these four times? I am not clear on this.

Thanks,

Bruce
  • #615
  • Aug 21, 2008 2:25am Aug 21, 2008 2:25am
Quoting brucech
Is this taking only the EURUSD position short (one) and EURUSD position long (three) or is it taking both EURUSD and USDCHF short at the same time? Or is it taking the EURCHF position these four times? I am not clear on this.
I calculated for EURUSD long with USDCHF short, and for EURUSD short with USDCHF long (pair hedging).
If you take only one pair, this is your risk...
  • #616
  • Aug 21, 2008 2:50am Aug 21, 2008 2:50am
SwingMan, Long EU and Short UC it's not a hedge. L EU and L UC is a hedge, that's why I'm trying to trade only one pair.

Shutopia, that's why I try to use spread information like a signal that "something could happen on the market". I'm not using it like eg moving average system when green cross red then you enter the market.

My methodology looks like this:

  1. waiting for |2|, |3| StDev (works like an alarm),
  2. check Fibo retracements, extensions, measure it from different highs and lows,
  3. looking for ABCD and XABCD patterns,
  4. for the last but not least I'm waiting for confirmation with candle formations on different time frames (M5, M15, M30, H1).

So in this one trade I putt all my knowledge of the market.

P.S now I'm looking for short EU because of it was in almost 3rd StDev and now on H1 is big reversal formation.

  • #617
  • Aug 21, 2008 3:20am Aug 21, 2008 3:20am
Here is the trade (StDev going back from almost +3):
(if I'm wrong then no problem I'll wait for next opportunity, but I know that I do everything for correct trade).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade.JPG Size: 116 KB
  • #618
  • Aug 21, 2008 3:28am Aug 21, 2008 3:28am
Quoting magictrader
SwingMan, Long EU and Short UC it's not a hedge. L EU and L UC is a hedge, that's why I'm trying to trade only one pair.
Yup. Thought of that all the time. It's logic. Both are inverse correlated.
If you are Long EU and it moves up you make money. Your short UC will probably go down making money as well. If the opposit happens you lose money on both.
The funny thing is when you are Long EU and UC you gain interest on both and you are hedged! I have 1 Lot EU and 1.5 Lots UC open for weeks and it keeps collecting swap while max DD was only 50 pips.

@SwingMan

If I load NeutralPrice Osc. and the RSI both with 200 Period setting MT4 instantly crashes. Any thoughts why? I don't think that it's to much calculation for my PC. Has to be a problem with MT4.
  • #619
  • Aug 21, 2008 3:35am Aug 21, 2008 3:35am
Quoting Tjpld
Yup. Thought of that all the time. It's logic. Both are inverse correlated.
If you are Long EU and it moves up you make money. Your short UC will probably go down making money as well. If the opposit happens you lose money on both.
The funny thing is when you are Long EU and UC you gain interest on both and you are hedged! I have 1 Lot EU and 1.5 Lots UC open for weeks and it keeps collecting swap while max DD was only 50 pips.

@SwingMan

If I load NeutralPrice Osc. and the RSI both with 200 Period setting MT4 instantly crashes. Any thoughts why? I don't think that it's to much calculation for my PC. Has to be a problem with MT4.
I've got the same problem with platform and I dl new MT4 from different broker and I remove all the screens and indicators only left "Neutral" indicators and it works ok.
  • #620
  • Aug 21, 2008 4:54am Aug 21, 2008 4:54am
SL on +20 pips.
I think that this strategy is the one that I was looking for all the time.

It combines a lot of technics and that's why it could be very profitable because a lot of traders look at different things. In this strategy we look almost at everything:
Pairs trading, Fibo trading, Patterns trading, Candle formations trading etc.
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