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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #5,921
  • Feb 13, 2007 6:57am Feb 13, 2007 6:57am
Quoting ali_ekrami
i all time follow Leugimp but this time i think GBP and EUR will down and USD will strong ...
Go with what you see. I still see GBP strength and once the move confirmed will take it - As for 2.0000 thats just the mania in me speaking, not that it isn't possible over time, its just an irrelevant call for now. As for important trade areas are concerned, I am looking to see how this pair reacts in area it is currently in on 400 tick charts. We have bounced off of the 50% of daily range, yet still holding in important rsi levels, a close below 9425 though and we may see this thing take off. My next important level will be 9566 - 50% of recent swing.

As for my Adaptive MACD, it is still diverging and once 1600 tick confirmation comes to the long side, I will take this north again - targeting that 50% retracement, then need to see if this is continuing the overall up move or the directional down move. Equally important will be where the week closes this week.

Just an opinion
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,922
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:03am Feb 13, 2007 7:03am
For what it's worth, British commentators in the weekend papers reported that the BOE inflation report due out tomorrow would indicate that inflation was abating thus lessening the need for increased interest rates - that was confirmed by today's softer figures and plummet to .9401. The report tomorrow should not therefore come as a surprise and may not produce the volatility predicted by the red icon on the calendar [my opinion only] HOWEVER the same commentators reported concerns of the Bank about wage inflation seeping through requiring interest rate rises to combat it. Therefore the average earnings index due at 0930 GMT tomorrow will need to be closely watched and if higher than predicted [as some have suggested] will produce a surge in Sterling. That together with Euro/cable hitting .67 and looking extended and euro/dollar maybe shaping to break crucial 1.3050 resistance should haul cable higher I agree with Leugimp - we are unlikely to get enough momentum to break through 1.9400 tomorrow. I think we may slowly struggle up around 1.9600 before heading back down to low 90's


Wait 'til it is night before saying it's been a fine day!
  • #5,923
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:06am Feb 13, 2007 7:06am
1.9400 (78.6% of 1.9261 - 1.9915 fibo), the end of wave C downwards? It's a possibility, let's see which way the next impulsive pattern will form. I thought today cable could hit lower 9300 area to continue its wave 3 down, but it's so far avoided. NY after lunch session, or even tomorrow? Who knows.
Wave 3 or C? Place the bet.
Tra-X
  • #5,924
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:09am Feb 13, 2007 7:09am
I don't know if this will be that relevant.

But no candle close above 9450 from this up move

Yesterday there was no candle closing below 9451 on the down side. We are now ranging exactly at yesterday's low, that was touched but not breached.

This is the new dreaded-wannabe here: 9450.
  • #5,925
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:11am Feb 13, 2007 7:11am
Quoting coshbrewer
Wait 'til it is night before saying it's been a fine day!
Somewhere on this planet it is night...so depending on your vision it's been a great day!! Pips made and money in the bank....it's been a great day in the neighborhood.
  • #5,926
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:21am Feb 13, 2007 7:21am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Somewhere on this planet it is night...so depending on your vision it's been a great day!! Pips made and money in the bank....it's been a great day in the neighborhood.
On some plants it's nighttime for years so I'll have to agree with you on this one - but forex aside, alive and healthy is always a good way to start continue or end any day.

As far as today is concerned, I am under the opinion that any close above 9411 will signal the rounding off of this down move, and a weekly close at or above 9460 will Put me automatically long on Sunday at the open on a long term move looking for 9800 level or higher. On longer view, I feel there is a strong need for another test of the high or better before some major selling off going into and after tax time.

Just an opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,927
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:44am Feb 13, 2007 7:44am
Quoting goonergonebad
If 1.9444 doesn't hold it looks to be long..
There is some really stubborn support at the 1.9423 level. If this holds then I concur with other posts that we may have seen the bottoming out of the short for the time being. Of course depends on 1.9444 being breached.
  • #5,928
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:46am Feb 13, 2007 7:46am
Quoting Traex
1.9400 (78.6% of 1.9261 - 1.9915 fibo), the end of wave C downwards? It's a possibility, let's see which way the next impulsive pattern will form. I thought today cable could hit lower 9300 area to continue its wave 3 down, but it's so far avoided. NY after lunch session, or even tomorrow? Who knows.
Wave 3 or C? Place the bet.

How about wave 3 of larger C
Attached Image
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #5,929
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:51am Feb 13, 2007 7:51am
Quoting cesarnc
I don't know if this will be that relevant.

But no candle close above 9450 from this up move

Yesterday there was no candle closing below 9451 on the down side. We are now ranging exactly at yesterday's low, that was touched but not breached.

This is the new dreaded-wannabe here: 9450.

I think already market move from 1.9450 till 1.9410

we should wait for tomorrow move
  • #5,930
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:00am Feb 13, 2007 8:00am
Quoting africanpip
How about wave 3 of larger C
Our wave 3 is basically the same one now (based on your chart); but I put wave C there as an alternative count (instead of wave 3). We'll see where market will go next.
Tra-X
  • #5,931
  • Edited 8:21am Feb 13, 2007 8:05am | Edited 8:21am
You can see on the Monthly the price is getting squeeze tightly into the top portion of this Flag formation.

Breakout anyone?
Attached Image
TheCableGuy
  • #5,932
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:10am Feb 13, 2007 8:10am
cable guy,
are you talking breakout up... cause it came into the flag from which direction?
  • #5,933
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:15am Feb 13, 2007 8:15am
I am not saying which way it is going to break, just showing the chart with the possibilities.
Attached Image
TheCableGuy
  • #5,934
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:32am Feb 13, 2007 8:32am
long @ 9431 looking for move back to and above 9500 with sl just under 9400
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,935
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:33am Feb 13, 2007 8:33am
Quoting TheCableGuy
I am not saying which way it is going to break, just showing the chart with the possibilities.
Looking at the chart it's more likely to break downwards. Either a straight away break or a false breakout upwards first then reversing. Just my opinion.

Anyway, since it's already past midnight here:

Happy Valentine's Day to everyone here! May love, peace, and harmony (and pips lol) be always with you!
Tra-X
  • #5,936
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:52am Feb 13, 2007 8:52am
Quoting Leugimp
long @ 9431 looking for move back to and above 9500 with sl just under 9400
SPEED SPEED SPEED
  • #5,937
  • Feb 13, 2007 12:06pm Feb 13, 2007 12:06pm
Bulls taking over?

- Today's candle (00:00GMT) forming a pin-bar, chance to close bullish above 9470
- Cable and Euro have had their parity broken on GB hike and now it decreased. Nevertheless, rates remained steady this month with no-hike effect on Cable and hike effect on Euro. They may reach a new parity now
- Euro in daily uptrend. If no-hike effect on GBP is priced in and Yen carry trades overdone (as suggested today), we may be back on USD-related trading.
- Wednesday with a mixed pack of news (GBP and USD).
- Cable fought heavily to break this 9460 level lately. Busted hard today, but it is not holding. Frankfurt opening at or above same levels of today 9489, it would look hard to believe in another attempt to break 9400.
- US market still absent. Fail to short dollar during news, price retraced 100% of the move and now we're back on news' high (go figure).

Asian session and news will show the way....

Comments will be appreciated.
  • #5,938
  • Feb 13, 2007 12:36pm Feb 13, 2007 12:36pm
comment...it might not be relevant ....oil strugling hard, 59 failed,...it had accumulated enough fuel for another test of 59.50 tomorow, before the news it might be pivoting @ 59.35, hopefully the test to broken 60 would failed, so that we all can safelly go short TP march exp.....

comment apreciated...
its just money
  • #5,939
  • Feb 13, 2007 12:47pm Feb 13, 2007 12:47pm
If I may ask ........at which point will you go long on GBP/USD? I am still thinking GBP don't have good fundamentals to appreciate.

Thanking you all for insight.
Banda
BANDA333
  • #5,940
  • Feb 13, 2007 12:53pm Feb 13, 2007 12:53pm
I dont know about abybody else but ill be going long if and when a pin bar forms on the daily for today. With a fairly tight stop loss because on the 4 hour charts, you can see that the last few times its run up, it came crashing back down. Good luck trading everybody
I dream, therefore I become.
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