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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #5,861
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:41am Feb 13, 2007 4:41am
There's more to come. This is a continuation pattern. actual 1hr candle within the previous whipsaw....

May be a stop hunting below 9400
  • #5,862
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:41am Feb 13, 2007 4:41am
Aarrhhh why is cable stuck at 78.6% fib 1.9261-1.9915! It's in danger to become wave C instead of wave 3 downwards. Hopefully it's going down again.
Tra-X
  • #5,863
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:43am Feb 13, 2007 4:43am
Quoting cesarnc
There's more to come. This is a continuation pattern. actual 1hr candle within the previous whipsaw....

May be a stop hunting below 9400
I hope you won't miss the next bot....
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,864
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:44am Feb 13, 2007 4:44am
Be patient..

It's acting very similar to two days ago, it will continue downwards like cesarnc said

edit - I meant last friday
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #5,865
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:48am Feb 13, 2007 4:48am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I hope you won't miss the next bot....
So do I
  • #5,866
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:49am Feb 13, 2007 4:49am
henry ..so its the other way arround,... ...

for those who want to read some fundamental stuff...
http://www.economist.com/printedition/ ...
its just money
  • #5,867
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:50am Feb 13, 2007 4:50am
Quoting gmohata
1 - At the moment the market (bigger traders) are mostly GBP long - So any form of better than expected CPI may not bring in all that many buyers because most of them are already long, wheras a negative number will make people dump GBP and there will be a bigger move to the downside - so in a 50/50 game the pips favored shorting cable.

2 - Recent news out of UK (since last CPI) have not been very good hence CPI could not be much better than last time.

3 - January is usually a month of high discounts in retail stores, so if at all prices will fall

4 - Last suprise rate hike with a declining housing market suggests people are not spending much

Or it was a retrace to the .618 of the prior drop, which also lined up with an abc projection and made a 15m doji at the top, which allowed for a 15 pip stop tester-trade. But that'd be making it too simple
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,868
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:58am Feb 13, 2007 4:58am
Going under or reversal, it won't be Cable if it doesn't spook the heck out of the stops at 9380
  • #5,869
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:02am Feb 13, 2007 5:02am
I will start going for Fundamental trading next week, though I have been doing very well with TA,The damn G7 costed my a lot last week, and well, lost some pips yesterday too..People say when you lose a lot of $$ and never get yourself emotionally in control.. You will lose more cash... That's quite true for me, though I have enough experience in forex, sometimes I still lost control...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,870
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:04am Feb 13, 2007 5:04am
Quoting SeekingLight
Or it was a retrace to the .618 of the prior drop, which also lined up with an abc projection and made a 15m doji at the top, which allowed for a 15 pip stop tester-trade. But that'd be making it too simple
I agree that the 618 fib was important as well - BUT a fib level does not give you a 100 pip run. Looking at all macro issues (which i posted and thought were important) meant a bigger run on the Short compared to the long and clearly everything else was pointing short.

Regards,
Girish
  • #5,871
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:04am Feb 13, 2007 5:04am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I will start going for Fundamental trading next week, though I have been doing very well with TA,The damn G7 costed my a lot last week, and well, lost some pips yesterday too..People say when you lose a lot of $$ and never get yourself emotionally in control.. You will lose more cash... That's quite true for me, though I have enough experience in forex, sometimes I still lost control...
Works for me getting my car and getting out of the desk for some hours. For there'll be another big move on the next day
  • #5,872
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:04am Feb 13, 2007 5:04am
I have been reading news just now, Many are prediction for a positive dollar movement even if the trade balance come out very bad...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,873
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:06am Feb 13, 2007 5:06am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I will start going for Fundamental trading next week, though I have been doing very well with TA,The damn G7 costed my a lot last week, and well, lost some pips yesterday too..People say when you lose a lot of $$ and never get yourself emotionally in control.. You will lose more cash... That's quite true for me, though I have enough experience in forex, sometimes I still lost control...

Zarul - i am both a day trader as well as a swing trader. In my experience - one cannot day trade on Fundamentals. And again in my experience swing trades pay much more than day trades (taking into account lose win ratios).

Regards,
Girish
  • #5,874
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:07am Feb 13, 2007 5:07am
Quoting cesarnc
Works for me getting my car and getting out of the desk for some hours. For there'll be another big move on the next day
I am really sad right now, I don't know what happened to me, I closed the order when I was + 10 pips on the news, I didn't know how on earth could I closed the deal, then I was trying to jump back in and mistakenly had a buy, instead of sell order...and the spread was big that time, 10-20 pips as a result..I lost money when I should be making them..
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,875
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:11am Feb 13, 2007 5:11am
Quoting gmohata
Zarul - i am both a day trader as well as a swing trader. In my experience - one cannot day trade on Fundamentals. And again in my experience swing trades pay much more than day trades (taking into account lose win ratios).

Regards,
Girish
In case you don't know I trade both swing trades and day trades and I also scalp, but for one weird reason, I am always better at scalping than anything else...I am not in doubt with my skill in TA, just that many times, news release ruined my day.....
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,876
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:17am Feb 13, 2007 5:17am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I have been reading news just now, Many are prediction for a positive dollar movement even if the trade balance come out very bad...

There is little reason for the trade balance to come out bad:

1 - Most of december the dollar was weak - so exporters in USA benefitted

2 - Crude prices were not very high

3 - Oil imports were lesser than forecasted because of a milder winter till then

So i feel if at all the trade balance should be better than forecasted and dollar should get into another mid term rally.

I could be wrong but i will be taking sell positions in cable, eur and CAD (cad because their news comes out at the same time and i believe their trade balance should widen).

Regards,
Girish
  • #5,877
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:20am Feb 13, 2007 5:20am
Quoting gmohata
There is little reason for the trade balance to come out bad:

1 - Most of december the dollar was weak - so exporters in USA benefitted

2 - Crude prices were not very high

3 - Oil imports were lesser than forecasted because of a milder winter till then

So i feel if at all the trade balance should be better than forecasted and dollar should get into another mid term rally.

I could be wrong but i will be taking sell positions in cable, eur and CAD (cad because their news comes out at the same time and i believe their trade balance should widen).

Regards,
Girish
Thanks for the info, I will be shorting soon, right now I am scalping on every possible chart, already got 20 pips so far, I have to recover my lost due to my stupidity....
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,878
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:21am Feb 13, 2007 5:21am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Cable's only lost what....a mere 500 pips since Jan 23rd, give or take a pip??

I'm long overnight in cable because I think the Euro news will give it a boost (maybe the UKnews also). I'm also positioned with the euro for its opening: long at 2977; short at 2950. All positions (long cable and euro positions) will close before the UK news, with a straddle in place for the Brits' CPI announcement. Then I'll do it all again for the Yankee Trade prospects (baseball's coming soon!). If my projection on US Trade is correct, then the downtrend should continue (gbp short, dollar long).

Just information; not a recommendation.
"How does he do it?? That guy is just too dang good!"

I figure if I keep telling myself that, then one day I'll believe my own hype!!!
  • #5,879
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:21am Feb 13, 2007 5:21am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I am really sad right now, I don't know what happened to me, I closed the order when I was + 10 pips on the news, I didn't know how on earth could I closed the deal, then I was trying to jump back in and mistakenly had a buy, instead of sell order...and the spread was big that time, 10-20 pips as a result..I lost money when I should be making them..
Hey. If making bad calls wasn't common, stop loss would never exist. Regroup and trade again.

If emotions are wider than your reason at this moment, step off for the day...
  • #5,880
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:23am Feb 13, 2007 5:23am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
In case you don't know I trade both swing trades and day trades and I also scalp, but for one weird reason, I am always better at scalping than anything else...I am not in doubt with my skill in TA, just that many times, news release ruined my day.....
Absolutely 100% i agree with you - Trading the news is a sure shot way of losing all your money in the long run. But you can still keep fundamentals into perspective before a news release and take positions accordingly.

For example - if fundamentals say that the GBP is highly overbought and most of the news in the previous weeks have not been very GBP positive, then take this into account for a short trade before the news (not during) with a tight stop loss and let the TP run along.

My 2 cents.

Regards,
Girish
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