beware the mighty pound - king of all currencies
TRADE FOR SWAP
- #5,841
- Feb 13, 2007 1:27am Feb 13, 2007 1:27am
- | Joined Dec 2005 | Status: It's only money | 1,413 Posts
TRADE FOR SWAP
- #5,844
- Feb 13, 2007 1:33am Feb 13, 2007 1:33am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
If you noticed......most of the clues was given b4 news already. For me this was quite an easy trade.
Look at 30min,1h and 4h charts........and daily.
You will see it was just waiting to come down....and the trigger was the news.
Look at 30min,1h and 4h charts........and daily.
You will see it was just waiting to come down....and the trigger was the news.
- #5,850
- Feb 13, 2007 1:39am Feb 13, 2007 1:39am
Taking a short now at 9502 - SL - 20 pips - No TP (will decide based on news). If this works as a profitable trade i will explain my reasons for doing this - if its a loss - then no point bothering you guys.
Girish
OK 70 pips plus and counting - will close as soon as retracement comes in.
Explanation: - I never deal on short time frames like 10 min charts - i always take 1 hr and daily charts - and any news even i analyse with perspective of what has happened in the earlier news releases.
1 - At the moment the market (bigger traders) are mostly GBP long - So any form of better than expected CPI may not bring in all that many buyers because most of them are already long, wheras a negative number will make people dump GBP and there will be a bigger move to the downside - so in a 50/50 game the pips favored shorting cable.
2 - Recent news out of UK (since last CPI) have not been very good hence CPI could not be much better than last time.
3 - January is usually a month of high discounts in retail stores, so if at all prices will fall
4 - Last suprise rate hike with a declining housing market suggests people are not spending much
- All of these factors together with technicals (divergance in RSI - 1 hour and upper BB breached) made sense to go short as there was a better oppurtunity to make pips than going long.
Eitherways each trade is a gamble - but after studying the above - it was not a pure gamble - more of analysis
I will post more such explanations for trades i take if people want.
Regards,
Girish
- #5,851
- Feb 13, 2007 1:40am Feb 13, 2007 1:40am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
very nice.. let's watch it drop more now 
get to work henry..
get to work henry..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
If you noticed......most of the clues was given b4 news already. For me this was quite an easy trade.
Look at 30min,1h and 4h charts........and daily.
You will see it was just waiting to come down....and the trigger was the news.
- #5,854
- Feb 13, 2007 1:43am Feb 13, 2007 1:43am
If you noticed......most of the clues was given b4 news already. For me this was quite an easy trade.
Look at 30min,1h and 4h charts........and daily.
You will see it was just waiting to come down....and the trigger was the news.
yes. that is why I stuck with my short. I'm very good at spotting fake breakouts.
- #5,855
- Feb 13, 2007 1:43am Feb 13, 2007 1:43am
OK 70 pips plus and counting - will close as soon as retracement comes in.
Explanation: - I never deal on short time frames like 10 min charts - i always take 1 hr and daily charts - and any news even i analyse with perspective of what has happened in the earlier news releases.
1 - At the moment the market (bigger traders) are mostly GBP long - So any form of better than expected CPI may not bring in all that many buyers because most of them are already long, wheras a negative number will make people dump GBP and there will be a bigger move to the downside - so in a 50/50 game the pips favored shorting cable.
2 - Recent news out of UK (since last CPI) have not been very good hence CPI could not be much better than last time.
3 - January is usually a month of high discounts in retail stores, so if at all prices will fall
4 - Last suprise rate hike with a declining housing market suggests people are not spending much
- All of these factors together with technicals (divergance in RSI - 1 hour and upper BB breached) made sense to go short as there was a better oppurtunity to make pips than going long.
Eitherways each trade is a gamble - but after studying the above - it was not a pure gamble - more of analysis
I will post more such explanations for trades i take if people want.
Regards,
Girish
OK 70 pips plus and counting - will close as soon as retracement comes in.
Explanation: - I never deal on short time frames like 10 min charts - i always take 1 hr and daily charts - and any news even i analyse with perspective of what has happened in the earlier news releases.
1 - At the moment the market (bigger traders) are mostly GBP long - So any form of better than expected CPI may not bring in all that many buyers because most of them are already long, wheras a negative number will make people dump GBP and there will be a bigger move to the downside - so in a 50/50 game the pips favored shorting cable.
2 - Recent news out of UK (since last CPI) have not been very good hence CPI could not be much better than last time.
3 - January is usually a month of high discounts in retail stores, so if at all prices will fall
4 - Last suprise rate hike with a declining housing market suggests people are not spending much
- All of these factors together with technicals (divergance in RSI - 1 hour and upper BB breached) made sense to go short as there was a better oppurtunity to make pips than going long.
Eitherways each trade is a gamble - but after studying the above - it was not a pure gamble - more of analysis
I will post more such explanations for trades i take if people want.
Regards,
Girish
Excellent analysis. Not so sure about ignoring short time frames. Personally, I think price movement is key at times of announcements.
