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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #5,781
  • Feb 12, 2007 3:42pm Feb 12, 2007 3:42pm
Quoting viking
i dont think on february but
in next month if UK change I.R to 5.00 then maybe we will met again 1.9000
Plus US "Vigilance"....
  • #5,782
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:19pm Feb 12, 2007 7:19pm
This is probaby going to be the ugliest chart i have posted of yet, but i have been working on a different format for MACD using quickly adapting MAS as opposed to exponential avgs. I have noticed that big moves occur when this indicator diverges with fast stochastic and regular MACD - it is almost scary.

As of right now and for the past 3 trading days, stochastics and MACD have been popping through oversold levels as price has consistently moved down from 9750 area. The AMACD however has failed to breach the zero line - all of this on 1600 tick chart.The odd thing is that my dailys are beginning to point down, weekly on the verge of collapsing through a major trendline, my swing charts are already looking for a retracement to go short, but this one little shit is pointing strongly up. If confirmed, it will be supported by weeklys for now, dailys as well as we are at key rsi level and everything should end up lining up - I'm just wondering the implications as this has picked up a key reversal very early compared to my other methods. I may just hold my 9470 long a bit longer, trailing and taking some pips of course just in case, but I have looked back over time and this divergence is usually spot on. Am very curious to see how this transpires, my guess - horrible news for dollar today and even better news for GBP. This is not a trade recommendation in any way just an observation that I will try to capitalize on using this and many other tools. Lets see where it goes - COT report also with too many long speculative positions, I dont see how this theoretically would make sense for a turn here.
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Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,783
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:53pm Feb 12, 2007 7:53pm
Quoting Leugimp
I'm just wondering the implications as this has picked up a key reversal very early compared to my other methods. I may just hold my 9470 long a bit longer, trailing and taking some pips of course just in case, but I have looked back over time and this divergence is usually spot on.
You're not alone Leugimp. I went long on cable at 01:20 GMT (8:20 est Monday evening) at 1.9480. Let's see what happens.
  • #5,784
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:53pm Feb 12, 2007 7:53pm
Nice thread....
TheBe$t
  • #5,785
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:02pm Feb 12, 2007 8:02pm
Weekly chart also bounced hard and quick off of old support turned resistance @ 9570 level yesterday adding to the case that my last post is not likely to follow through. Still interested though to see how this divergence plays out. If I were to combine it all into one package deal, I would say that the divergence will play out over the days to come, perhaps even with a close of the week in the 9800's - followed next week by a strong move over the 2.0000 level and then quickly retrace below it after reaching 2.0130 on a huge spike. This should get whatecer specs are left to short side long, coupled with major divergence. Then we will see a strong sustained move back down to below 1.90000 as no more specs to buy, coupled with tax time seasonal effect.

Or if we can break down through current levels, 9200's may be in the cards for this week.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,786
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:02pm Feb 12, 2007 8:02pm
yo merlin:

CAN SOMEBODY PLEEEEZZE TRASH THE POLL RESULTS ON WHERE CABLE WILL BE BY 1 JANUARY 2007???? IT'S OVER ALREADY...FORGET ABOUT IT! TIME MARCHES ON!!

thanks.
  • #5,787
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:06pm Feb 12, 2007 8:06pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
yo merlin:

CAN SOMEBODY PLEEEEZZE TRASH THE POLL RESULTS ON WHERE CABLE WILL BE BY 1 JANUARY 2007???? IT'S OVER ALREADY...FORGET ABOUT IT! TIME MARCHES ON!!

thanks.
Its pretty sad, not only are we bad at predicting the future, we cant even predict the past.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,788
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:10pm Feb 12, 2007 8:10pm
Quoting Leugimp
Its pretty sad, not only are we bad at predicting the future, we cant even predict the past.
LOL!!!
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,789
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:11pm Feb 12, 2007 8:11pm
I am waiting for a move above 1.9486 , the resistance line really making me feel frustrated. Anyway, Moneymaster , you're a news guy, share with us what do you have there..
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,790
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:15pm Feb 12, 2007 8:15pm
I also went long GBP/JPY about 2 hours after taking the long position on cable.

Frankfurt should start some excitement as EUR/USD continues ambling along sideways. You just know it's going to break "one way or t'other" as the old folks used to say.
  • #5,791
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:17pm Feb 12, 2007 8:17pm
So Money, you're thinking GBP news is gonna be better than expected? What about the upcoming US news and when looking at daily and 4hr charts it's pointing down? Any thoughts?
If you can't produce some results and make some serious PIPS, YOU'RE FIRED!
  • #5,792
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:18pm Feb 12, 2007 8:18pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
I also went long GBP/JPY about 2 hours after taking the long position on cable.

Frankfurt should start some excitement as EUR/USD continues ambling along sideways. You just know it's going to break "one way or t'other" as the old folks used to say.
I am short EURUSD with TP at 1.2911...Considering the strong move down yesterday and the fact that there is no strong push up following the down movement as usual, there is a chance it will continue moving down...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,793
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:25pm Feb 12, 2007 8:25pm
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
Moneymaster , you're a news guy, share with us what do you have there..
Hey Zarul,

You know most of the news is coming out of Europe in the morning; I expect it to reflect a robust European economy which will give more credence to an interest rate rise next month by the ECB.

Then at 8:30 Est, or 13:30 GMT, the yanks come out with a trade balance number. FF projects a dollar negative number (widened trade deficit) but I'm not sure that I agree since the dollar weakness from a couple of months back has lagged its way into the reporting system so it should reflect an increase in US exports. It showed up a bit in last month's numbers, perhaps more this month. If FF is correct, then more dollar dumping; if I'm correct then the greenback should get a reprieve.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it!!
  • #5,794
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:31pm Feb 12, 2007 8:31pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Hey Zarul,

You know most of the news is coming out of Europe in the morning; I expect it to reflect a robust European economy which will give more credence to an interest rate rise next month by the ECB.

Then at 8:30 Est, or 13:30 GMT, the yanks come out with a trade balance number. FF projects a dollar negative number (widened trade deficit) but I'm not sure that I agree since the dollar weakness from a couple of months back has lagged its way into the reporting system so it should reflect an increase in US exports. It showed up a bit in last month's numbers, perhaps more this month. If FF is correct, then more dollar dumping; if I'm correct then the greenback should get a reprieve.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it!!
So, we are going to see a strong push up and then a strong push down?
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,795
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:39pm Feb 12, 2007 8:39pm
Quoting Qwiktrader
So Money, you're thinking GBP news is gonna be better than expected? What about the upcoming US news and when looking at daily and 4hr charts it's pointing down? Any thoughts?
Wazzup Qwik,

Cable's only lost what....a mere 500 pips since Jan 23rd, give or take a pip??

I'm long overnight in cable because I think the Euro news will give it a boost (maybe the UKnews also). I'm also positioned with the euro for its opening: long at 2977; short at 2950. All positions (long cable and euro positions) will close before the UK news, with a straddle in place for the Brits' CPI announcement. Then I'll do it all again for the Yankee Trade prospects (baseball's coming soon!). If my projection on US Trade is correct, then the downtrend should continue (gbp short, dollar long).

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #5,796
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:39pm Feb 12, 2007 8:39pm
I realized that EURUSD and GBPUSD seem to be on tune lately...They are now dancing to the same rythm...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,797
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:42pm Feb 12, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
So, we are going to see a strong push up and then a strong push down?
Affirmative...and with that I'll say goodnight. Trade well and prosper.
  • #5,798
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:55pm Feb 12, 2007 8:55pm
Actually Money, I am curious if CPI is really more important than RPI to the Brits. I dont see how the expectation on RPI is for a decline housing has kept up and this inflation figure includes mortgage interest payments.

Also RPI has been the highest that it has been in 15 years - It is the publics preferred measure of inflation and as such it is used in wage negotiations which were starting up in January. If RPI holds strong and has direct effects on wage inflation, the BOE may have no choice but to hike rates again much sooner than later - my information has come from the economist magazine, so it musn't be a big secret. I dont think this is priced in at all though, and although I don't believe it will have the obvious immediate effect as people dont seem to be looking heavily at it, I do see this as an opportunistic fundie to work with. It is the kind of thing that when it is fully priced in, the real effects have already eased and many end up caught on the wrong side having missed the boat and thinking there is much more to it than there actually is.

Im not really too sure what to think of it, or how to go about a strategy based on it other than a speculative long term play if price is to drop, so perhaps this is all irrelevant. However, I do feel the market has gotten lazy with its interpretation of longer term fundies, and seems to be reacting heavily to individual releases instead of looking at them as a whole. I'm included in this myopic view as I constantly try to meld my techs with speculative bets on fundamental releases, and there is nothing wrong with that. I'm not a huge long term player, but if price were to climb quickly to the 2.0130 I am thinking of perhaps fading the move with an agressive options play. Not sure yet - just want to be ready just in case.

Do you have any thoughts on this RPI?
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,799
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:20pm Feb 12, 2007 9:20pm
if the price open and stay above 1.9491 that should be a good indicator of a strong upper movement...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,800
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:24pm Feb 12, 2007 9:24pm
What I meant was on 1 hour chart...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
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